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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Draft Reform of FX Law
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 09 Sep 2013 · 2 responses

The available draft of the new Forex Law (Ley Contra los Ilícitos Cambiarios, LCIC) is a move towards a more flexible and open foreign exchange regime.The project brings few substantive changes to the definition of offenses and significantly increases penalties. The fundamental change, in our vie...

Inflation and Growth: Where to?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Sep 2013

Executive Summary Inflation in July was near zero, but this does not represent a trend reversal. The 12-month forward-looking expectations continue to rise, at more than 6% a year; the 12-month inflation of non-tradables is still growing above the upper limit of the target interval; and even thou...

Gross Reserves Fell to 5% in August
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Sep 2013

Gross foreign reserves declined $1.1 billion (4.7% m/m) in August down to $21.65 billion or 2.4 months of future imports, according to the Central bank report on September 6th.It is the lowest level of gross foreign reserves over the last seven years.  Still in 2006 when Ukraine had reserves near...

Mexico's Fiscal Reform and Economic Package for 2014: Back to Deficit Financing
MEXICO · In Brief · 09 Sep 2013

The government announced today a very significant fiscal package for 2014, as well as an ambitious fiscal reform. In essence, both proposals are oriented to increase public sector revenues in order to augment spending in four distinct areas, two traditional and two new ones. The former include mo...

Weekly Tracker: September 8-14
TURKEY · Report · 08 Sep 2013

Executive Summary Obama is not guaranteed to receive the go-ahead for Syria from the House.An airstrike on Assad’s assets will degrade his capacity to execute the war and give the rebels the upper hand. Yet, the threat of Shia Axis taking revenge on Turkey can’t be dismissed. Ankara is on the ver...

Minor Rotations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 06 Sep 2013

The Ministry of Economic Development, the Central Bank and the Presidential Administration are currently engaged in a process of widespread top management rotation. New heads of agencies are bringing in their former employees, thereby significantly influencing the work of agencies as a whole. Alt...

One Step Closer to Compensation
VENEZUELA · Report · 06 Sep 2013

After almost six years, the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) issued a ruling in the case ConocoPhillips vs. the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (ICSID Case No. ARB/07/30) on the expropriation of ConocoPhillips’ stake in Petrozuata, Hamaca and Corocoro. The rulin...

Bold Move: Banco de Mexico Reduces Interest Rates
MEXICO · In Brief · 06 Sep 2013

Banco de México announced an interest rate reduction (domestic interbank rate), of 25 basis points, to an annual 3.75%.The reasoning behind México’s central bank is based on two main factors: i) the fact that consumer inflation has diminished to an annual 3.5%, clearly below the upper bound of th...

Money Supply Jumps 30%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Sep 2013

As expected, the mandated partial removal of trust funds from the BSP's SDA facility contributed to a substantial 30% increase in M3 in July compared with an already high 20% the previous month.  In addition to accelerated growth in deposit levels, the BSP also attributed the increase to higher f...

Ground Prepped for Soft Landing?
INDONESIA · Report · 05 Sep 2013

Executive Summary The Indonesian economy has shown signs of overheating over the past few months. The Consumer Price Index has risen significantly, given higher domestic fuel prices, the flawed trading system and Ramadan festivities. We’re seeing further economic pressures in the form of a con...

Mexico’s State of the Union: 120 days to go
MEXICO · In Brief · 05 Sep 2013

On Monday, President Pena Nieto gave his State of the Union address before a very small and select audience at the presidential residence of Los Pinos. He chose a smaller venue because since last week, Mexico City has been taken over by the dissident group of teachers who have been protesting aga...

Monetary Policy Report Reinforces Previous Messages
CHILE · Report · 05 Sep 2013

In the Monetary Policy Report presented yesterday to Congress, the Central Bank reinforced the message that it has been providing over the past months. In particular, the Central Bank indicated that if the recent slowdown in GDP growth in the context of a weaker external impulse consolidates, the...

Investment Opportunities in Venezuela in Oil and Gas
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 Sep 2013

The Key Energy Opportunities in Venezuela versus other Emerging Market Countries The Venezuelan government has realized the need to increase oil and gas output as oil markets have moved to a not-so-rosy outlook and prices are stable, with a downside risk. Geopolitical risks only provide brief res...

Latest Inflation Slips to 2.1%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Sep 2013

Lower food, housing and utility price rises contributed to the decline in inflation to 2.1 % in August, below consensus forecast of 2.4%. Muted price pressures can also be seen in a benign core inflation of 1.9%.  With year to date inflation averaging 2.8%, below the low end of the central bank’s...

Dominican Rep: Backtracking in Monetary Policy after DOP Depreciation Accelerated
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 04 Sep 2013

Last week, the Central Bank announced several measures aimed at containing the depreciation of the DOP. In August DOP depreciated 1.8% against the USD, the highest monthly rate registered so far in 2013.The measures included:1. The increase of the monetary policy rate in 200 bp (from 4.25% to 6.2...

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