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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Going Into Extractivism to Get Out From Extractivism
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Sep 2013

Executive SummaryEcuadorians do not understand why President Correa is enduring the evident political cost of pushing for Legislative approval to exploit the ITT camps. The $2.5b per year in revenues for around 20 years, seem insufficient to achieve the economic transformation the government link...

Import Uptick
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 25 Sep 2013

The statistics bureau reported today an 8.7% increase in July imports due largely to a 30% gain in imports of electronics materials.  This supports feedback we received earlier from local electronics makers who reported seeing improving export sales.  July total import growth is the highest so fa...

Is it Really Over?
INDONESIA · Report · 24 Sep 2013

Executive Summary Calming good news in the media seems to have quelled late-August/mid-September financial jitters in the Indonesian financial market; at least, the long lines in front of the exchange houses have dwindled. We now see light at the end of the tunnel. The first bit of good new...

Holes in Pemex Fiscal Reform
MEXICO · Report · 24 Sep 2013

Executive Summary In recent days several of the tax ideas contained in the fiscal reform proposals made by President Enrique Peña Nieto have become the focus of considerable discussion and criticism. These include the application of the VAT tax to school tuitions, an idea the Chamber of Deputies ...

Fiscal Policy Showdown
MEXICO · Report · 24 Sep 2013

Executive Summary Key elements in President Enrique Peña’s fiscal reform proposals have run up against considerable resistance in the two weeks since they were unveiled. Powerful business leaders and associations were quick to criticize the initiative for not going as far as they had expected, es...

Weather and Economy Heat Up
CHINA · Report · 24 Sep 2013

Executive Summary China was hit by heat waves in July and August – with the weather in August even hotter, in many regions, than in July. Electricity generation rose 13.4% y/y over the month, its fastest climb in years. The economy seems to be heating up too. Industrial output growth also r...

Political Insights: Week of September 23
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2013

The week ahead: Finance Minister Guido Mantega discusses investment opportunities in Brazil with investors in New York.The government is concerned about the attractiveness of the concessions programmed for the coming months. In the US, Dilma speaks at the UN General Assembly.This is a decisive we...

Interpreting the Monetary Policy Announcement
INDIA · Report · 23 Sep 2013

In his maiden monetary policy announcement RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan tried to unveil a complicated mix of easing and tightening. He raised the policy “repo” rate to bring down inflationary expectations, while at the same time reducing the MSF rate, the effective rate at which banks borrow, whic...

Help From the Fed for the Brazilian Central Bank
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Sep 2013

The markets were taken by surprise with the Fed’s decision to maintain the pace of asset purchases. US Treasury rates immediately fell, with the 10-year bond closing last week at 2.73% after having reached 2.99% before the meeting. Internationally, there was an immediate reversal in the behavior ...

Weekly Tracker: September 22-28
TURKEY · Report · 22 Sep 2013

Executive Summary If the Turkish press is to be believed, the Reform Package to be unveiled on the final day of September will contain concrete human rights reforms. The Kurdish actors already denounced the reform efforts. They now want PKK leader Ocalan to be bestowed with the status of official...

RBI Statement Failed to Reduce Uncertainty
INDIA · Report · 20 Sep 2013

Today RBI said they will: reduce the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate by 75 basis points from 10.25 per cent to 9.5 per cent with immediate effect;reduce the minimum daily maintenance of the cash reserve ratio (CRR) from 99 per cent of the requirement to 95 per cent effective from the fortni...

Lots of Talk, Little Action
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Sep 2013

Executive Summary The government sorely needs to adopt credible and sustainable policies to stabilize exchange rates, prices, and expectations. An immediate priority is to patch up the exchange rate regime. The administration is planning to set up a new foreign exchange mechanism to run alongside...

PSB Exits The Allied Base
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Sep 2013

The Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) announced on September 18 that it is delivering all posts it occupied in the Dilma Rousseff (PT) administration. The PSB occupied the Ministry of National Integration, the Secretariat of Ports, three directorships in the Development Company for the São Francisc...

The Benchmark Interest Rate Remains Unchanged
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 Sep 2013

Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) continues a period of no change in the benchmark interest rate. Cognizant of the upside nature of inflationary risks and the underlying hesitant economic recovery in South Africa, the MPC kept the rep...

RBI Announcement on 20th is Unusually Important
INDIA · In Brief · 18 Sep 2013

It will be the first policy statement by Raghuram Rajan, the new RBI Governor. The date was deftly chosen to give him a little more time, and to take place after the FOMC announcement.RBI monetary policy statements are like nothing you see with central banks elsewhere in the world. They are wordy...

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