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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

El Salvador: Divided Country
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Mar 2014

Executive Summary We don’t expect major changes in El Salvador’s economic performance this year. Growth will stay low, at about 2%. We also expect inflation to be low, though it will rise above the 0.8% of 2013.The fiscal and current account deficits will be relatively high, increasing the financ...

A Slowing Economy
CHILE · Report · 28 Mar 2014

Executive Summary Signs of moderation persist, pointing to an undeniable slowdown. According to the Central Bank, the monthly economic activity index (IMACEC) grew only 1.4% in twelve months in January, below market expectations. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted series fell 0.6% with respect to...

Anti-crisis package approved: IMF money to come shortly
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Mar 2014

Yesterday IMF announced about positive results of technical mission. The Executive Board of the Fund was to decide regarding support to Ukraine. Though the message was positive, the main question was – what were the pre-conditions for the first wire? Given that the Cabinet promptly submitted to t...

The SARB Catches a Breath on its Hiking Journey
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Mar 2014

Following a 50-basis point increase in the benchmark interest rate in January 2014, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to pause the interest rate hiking process. The repo rate will, for now, remain at 5.5% per year. Graph 1 Headline and Core Annual Inf...

Credit: Little Stimulus to Consumption
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Mar 2014

The total volume of credit to individuals has been growing in real terms by around 10% a year since the start of last year. However, this does not mean that credit has been propelling consumption. On the contrary, as will be shown in this note, except for a few modalities, the supply of credit to...

Konda Poll Stoked Wednesday’s Turkish Rally
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Mar 2014

A few hours ago, one of Turkey’s premier polling agencies KONDA, released its local election survey conducted on 22-23 March—in contravention of High Election Council regs forbidding such activity. KONDA heralds a clear win for AKP with 46%. The cover letter presenting the poll is dated 26 March,...

Divergent
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Mar 2014

Monetary and fiscal policies have diverged with the former on a tightening track and the latter loosening up some more. Revealing its primary concern at this time, i.e., of liquidity-driven increases in risk appetites, the Monetary Board opted to raise the reserve requirement on bank deposits by ...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Mar 2014

Ibope: President’s popularity wanes The most recent CNI/Ibope poll, conducted from March 14-17 and released earlier today, showed a sharp drop in the approval ratings of the Dilma administration. Such a change has not occurred since the widespread protests in June of last year. The poll also show...

Expect Continuity, Not Change
INDIA · Report · 26 Mar 2014

Executive Summary The media has anointed the BJP as a frontrunner in the spring elections, amid palpable disappointment with the ruling UPA, due to anemic growth, high inflation, and corruption. The UPA neglected all three of these issues in favor of focusing on subsidies. The election will serve...

Buying Time
VENEZUELA · Report · 26 Mar 2014

Executive Summary Two months of protests have left dozens dead, hundreds injured, over 1,800 arrested, assets damaged, and daily life disrupted. Government repression has been severe. Constitutional violations have set dangerous precedents. This turmoil has hurt the government’s image abroad but ...

Slowing of Growth in Bank Credit
MEXICO · Report · 25 Mar 2014

Executive Summary Bank lending to the private sector slowed during the second half of 2013 and early 2014 at least partially in response to a less dynamic internal market and consumer pessimism regarding the economy. As of January 2014, consumer credit was growing at its slowest pace since 2010. ...

Recovery by Yearend?
INDIA · Report · 25 Mar 2014

Executive Summary Our report of December 2, 2013 projected export buoyancy and a fall in companies’ interest rate payments, and said this would lead to better performance for large firms in 2013. Q4 data bears out all three predictions -- though the improvements were less robust than we expected....

New Hurdles for Reforms
MEXICO · Report · 25 Mar 2014

Executive Summary The road to structural reforms just keeps getting longer and bumpier. The administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto had promised to hand lawmakers its bills for the secondary laws on telecommunications and energy reform by early February, but with just over a month left in ...

CORRECTED - Sicad II started at last. No surprises.
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 24 Mar 2014

In line with Rafael Ramírez’s unofficial announcements, the average price of the dollar in Sicad II in its first day of operations was 51.86 Bs/$, as BCV reported at 6:00 PM. No information was given on trading volume. However, we believe volume today was low. Participants and banks have had litt...

Inflation: Uptick Prevents Ending the Tightening Cycle
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Mar 2014

Until recently the signals from the Central Bank were that since inflation was decelerating, the end of the monetary tightening cycle was nearing. But the period of decelerating inflation was short lived. The resistance of some free prices, especially of services, combined with the sharp rise of ...

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