Still Slowing, with Construction and Communications at the Force

ECUADOR - Forecast 26 Aug 2013 by Magdalena Barreiro
Executive Summary The GDP growth slowdown that began in Q3 2011 persists, as the government is receiving lower oil revenues, and the economy is absorbing public investment less efficiently. The economy grew 4.8% y/y in Q4 2012, and 1.2% q/q – but in Q1 2013, growth rose just 0.2% q/q, and 3.5% y/y.Oil value grew 0.3% q/q, but the non-oil sector shrank outright, by -1.1%. Official estimates for this year project growth at 4.05% --slightly above the regional average, and apparently attainable, based on estimated fundamentals. Construction and communications contributed significantly to GDP in...

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