The New International Environment, the Real Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 22 Aug 2013 by Marcelo Gazzano, Cristina Pinotti and Affonso Pastore
The global scenario has changed. On the one hand, the more vigorous growth in the United States has brought signals that the Federal Reserve will soon start easing back on its asset purchases, while on the other there are clear indications of slower growth in China. Against this backdrop, there is a movement for a stronger dollar and a trend for lower international commodity prices, generating depreciation of the currencies of commodity-exporting countries, among them Brazil. Unlike what happened in the past, when sudden halts in capital inflows generated by crises in one or more emerging c...

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