Party's Over

PERU - Forecast 22 Aug 2013 by Roberto Abusada and Fritz Du Bois (Peru)
Executive SummaryExport decline plus lower growth rate of domestic demand led to H1 GDP growth slowdown, to 5.1% y/y, from 6.3% in the same period in 2012 (and an average of 6.5% over the decade). We expect slower private investment expansion in H2, given weaker business confidence. But public spending is increasingly powerful. That should put 2013 GDP growth at about 5.2%.We envision GDP growth at 5.3% in 2014, with primary producing sectors growing fastest, due to the opening of the large Toromocho copper mine, and better conditions for fisheries and agriculture. Internal demand growth wi...

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