Weekly Tracker: June 30-July 6

TURKEY - Report 30 Jun 2013 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

Executive SummaryWe change our political base-case scenario that Gezi Parki and related protests would taper off during the summer. It is now more likely that they will be joined by Alevites and Kurds sooner than we anticipated. The Peace Process is being sabotaged by PKK, as Kurdish actors press AKP for substantive reforms that it seems unable to deliver. The "good" news is that even nation-wide demonstrations will have little impact on AKP's popularity.The downsides are CHP or BDP co-opting Gezi people or sweeping unrest undermining economic confidence to trigger a recession.The most impo...

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