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Mar CCA highlights: Armenia issues Eurobonds, Azerbaijan's SOFAZ to increase gold holdings to 170 tons, US$6bn FDI to Georgia from UAE to start next year, Uzbekistan implements a surprise rate hike
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Mar 2025

In this report, I briefly touch on the key macro-political events in the CCA during Mar: Armenia: CPI accelerates to 2.5% YoY in Feb Armenia: Central Bank keeps key policy rate unchanged at 6.75% Armenia: Monthly economic indicator drops to only 1.5% YoY in Feb Armenia: Withdrawal from EEU ...

Industrial growth to moderate this year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Mar 2025

Rosstat reported that in 2M22, the industrial output grew by a mere 1.2% y-o-y, which looked weaker than January’s 2.2% y-o-y growth. In February alone, the y-o-y growth remained almost non-existent (up by 0.2%). The unimpressive February growth figure largely stems from the base effect, as 2024 ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Mar 2025

After the USD/RUB shortly moved close to the 80 mark, the ruble weakened slightly, and in the past ten days, the USD/RUB rate fluctuated within the 80-85 range. It won’t be surprising to see some more ruble weakening in the weeks ahead as the current level looks too strong from the fundamental po...

STF indicts Bolsonaro for alleged coup plot, Bolsonaro expected to ramp up political activity amid legal setbacks, and Lula's approval drops sharply as polls show he would lose in key 2026 matchups
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Mar 2025

As expected, the First Panel of the Federal Supreme Court accepted the indictment against former President Jair Bolsonaro and seven others accused of attempting a coup following the 2022 elections. Given the legal challenges he faces, Bolsonaro may be pressured to, even discreetly, begin building...

For whom the bell tolls?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Mar 2025

The Copom Minutes from last week's meeting revealed a rather hawkish tone regarding inflation prospects, suggesting that—even in the absence of guidance for meetings beyond May—the monetary tightening cycle is unlikely to end in the next meeting. We maintain the view expressed in our commentar...

The consequences of the Federal Supreme Court’s First Chamber’s decision to make Bolsonaro a defendant
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Mar 2025

The First Chamber of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) has accepted the Prosecutor General's Office (PGR) complaint against former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and allies for allegedly attempting a coup d'état in 2022. From now on, they become defendants, which generates repercussions in the legal...

Updated excel sheet on CBRT reserve data
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2025 · 1 response

We have received some requests from our audience to have an updated version of the excel file that had been attached to our semi-technical note (from earlier this month). Updated excel sheet is here, the technical note that we hyperlinked to yesterday's brief is here (for your convenience), and t...

STF rejects defense motions and begins voting on Bolsonaro coup attempt case, Bolsonaro calls for April rally in São Paulo after Rio turnout falls short, and Federal Revenue estimates minimal impact of income tax reform on states and municipalities
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Mar 2025

The First Panel of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) is continuing the trial on the complaint filed by the Prosecutor General's Office (PGR) against former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and seven others accused of attempting a coup d’état following the 2022 elections. Yesterday, former President Ja...

An Indian view on "Liberation Day"
INDIA · Report · 26 Mar 2025

"Liberation Day", April 2, the day when US President Trump is set to unveil his Tariff Plan, is drawing nearer, and not much is known about what will happen. The scenario for India is likely to involve some tariff cuts, some degradation of market access into the US, and some harm to India’s WTO ...

The ceasefire illusion: fake it 'til you make it
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Mar 2025

The new U.S. administration is clearly aiming to disengage from Ukraine, and to restore ties with Russia. U.S. President Donald Trump attempted to shift the blame for a potentially failed peace deal to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, as the public witnessed during the February 28th Oval ...

CBRT reserve update
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2025 · 1 response

There is a lot of interest in CBRT reserve numbers these days for obvious reasons, so we thought it might be useful to send our latest estimates. In the three days from March 19 through 21, we estimate that the cumulative decline in net and gross reserves amounted to $26.6 billion and $19.2 billi...

Today's Monetary Council went just as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2025

The MNB base rate was left at 6.5% and the interest rate corridor remained at 5.5% to 7.5%. At the press conference held after the meeting by Mr. Varga, the new governor, it has been stressed that the base rate may be left unchanged for a longer period, without any specification on how long that ...

The government considers bringing forward the 13th salary to regain popularity, the STF to deliberate on accepting charges against Bolsonaro for an alleged coup plot, INSS payroll loan rates are under review
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Mar 2025

The economic team is evaluating the possibility of advancing the payment of the 13th salary for retirees and pensioners in 2025. The request was made by the Ministry of Social Security, Carlos Lupi (PDT). Today, the First Panel of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) will begin deliberations on whethe...

Economics: The US 25% tariff affects a high percentage of Mexican non-USMCA products; the threat of reciprocal tariffs heightens uncertainty
MEXICO · Report · 25 Mar 2025

Tariff threats against Mexico have focused on demanding measures to prevent migration and fentanyl trafficking. However, it is very likely that issues directly related to foreign trade, attracting production chains to the US and a strategy to reduce the presence of Chinese products in the joint U...

Letters from the Insane Asylum
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2025

Former president Suleiman Demirel once remarked “24 hours is a very long time in Turkish politics”, which wisely describes the bind the nation finds itself in. The rival camps are moving their pieces at dizzying speed like in a Blitz chess game. Since our last writing on Sunday night, there is a ...

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