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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Oct 28 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Oct 29
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Chile databank Oct 29
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Oct 1
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Dominican Republic databank Oct 21
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Oct 24
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Hungary databank Oct 17
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Oct 21
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Sep 29
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Philippines databank Oct 8
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Poland databank Sep 29
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Russia Economics databank Oct 16
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South Africa databank Oct 3
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Turkey databank Oct 27
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Oct 6
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - NAVIGATING AN OIL GLUT: FISCAL AND RATING RISKS FOR ...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Politics: The 2026 Budget Proposal advances but is too subordinated to political considerations
MEXICO · Report · 22 Sep 2025
In the 2026 Budget Proposal (PPEF), total net public expenditure for the fiscal year is projected to increase a real 5.9%. Despite the declared need to reduce the fiscal deficit, social spending in politically oriented programs will receive a massive injection of resourses. This reflects the gove...
Should I stay or should I go?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Sep 2025 · 1 response
Imbalances continue to accumulate. After some improvement in the performance of public accounts in the first half of the year, largely due to the change in the disbursement date of certain expenditures, notably those related to court-ordered payments, the primary deficit is rising again. It is ex...
Lula traveled to the U.S. yesterday, the rapporteur of the bill on income tax exemptions should present his report tomorrow, and the Lower House is expected to vote on the amnesty bill in the coming days
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Sep 2025
President Lula traveled to the United States yesterday. This is his first trip to the U.S. since Donald Trump was elected president. However, no meeting between Lula and Trump is expected. Congressman Arthur Lira (PP-AL), rapporteur of the bill granting an income tax exemption for those earning ...
Higher public investment and deficit driving 2025 growth
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 22 Sep 2025
The Dominican economy grew by just 2.4% in H1 2025, half of its potential. To stimulate activity, the government approved a budget amendment that raises capital spending by 0.4% of GDP, increasing the overall deficit by the same amount. With the same objective, the Central Bank has continued the ...
Economics: Public investment outlook for 2026
MEXICO · Report · 22 Sep 2025
The 2026 Expenditure Budget Proposal (PPEF) anticipates a slight recovery in public investment following a deep contraction in 2025. Physical investment could increase by nearly 10% in real terms (from 888.9 billion to 975.5 billion pesos, ((US$48.30 billion to US$53 billion)), while investment i...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, September 22, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Sep 2025
Last week was dominated by geopolitics, as Prime Minister Netanyahu’s “Super Sparta” speech raised fears of economic fallout and deepened Israel’s diplomatic isolation. Markets reacted negatively, while the failed strike on Hamas leaders in Doha further strained ties with Arab states. We outlined...
Mr. Erdogan goes to Washington
TURKEY · Report · 21 Sep 2025
Erdogan added another one to Turkey’s recent gains in foreign policy by scoring an invitation from Trump to the White House on the 25th of September. Trump may visit Turkey in October too. The politics author anticipates a lucrative meeting for the US, and a productive one for Turkey. Gaza and Is...
The president of the União Brasil was accused of owning jets involved in organized crime, the rapporteur of the Amnesty Bill will begin negotiations on the matter next week, and Lula has scheduled a trip to the U.S.
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Sep 2025
The relationship between the government and União Brasil party has once again become tense. The party’s president, Antonio Rueda, was accused of being the hidden owner of executive jets used to transport members of organized crime. Next week promises to be busy. The rapporteur of the Amnesty Bill...
GULF WEEKLY: All mirror Fed cuts, Saudi revises inflation basket, Kuwait's population declines
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Sep 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf central banks all mirrored the US’s -25bp interest rate cut. * The IEA warned that annual field decline is higher than previously estimated, about -5.5m b/d. * Saudi Arabia revised its inflation basket, lifting the w...
Tax collection gradually improves but not enough
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Sep 2025
The Ministry of Finance released 8M25 budget execution data for all levels of the nation’s budget system, including republican and local budgets, the National Fund, and extra-budgetary funds, which are now part of the consolidated budget statistics. Although tax collection showed some improvement...
Webinar replay - Turkey politics: CHP vs. Goliath
TURKEY · Report · 19 Sep 2025
As the Erdogan-controlled legal system aims to divide and paralyze CHP with lawsuits, what countermeasures is the party's chairman Ozel taking? Can the CHP continue as a functioning political party in the face of these attacks and the pending indictments of arrested CHP mayors? With the Peace Com...
Is the emerging trading pattern stable?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Sep 2025
Special points to highlight in this report: The fight against involution seems to be working. Price declines moderated in August while most measures of production were below expectations. The question is whether Beijing can repress involution while still maintaining GDP growth targets, or will...
Topic of the week - 3Q2025 CCA Slide deck
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 19 Sep 2025
The quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia is a 206-slide detailed description of the economic status quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as of the third quarter of the year. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, inf...
Israel labor & demography: three prints, one message
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Sep 2025
We got three data points this week on the labor market and demography, and they all point the same way: the labor market remains tight. Demand for workers is increasing, while labor supply is constrained by reservist service and net emigration. That combination keeps wage and price pressures aliv...
The SA Reserve Bank halts monetary policy easing
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Sep 2025
The SA Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at the conclusion of this week’s meeting. This leaves the repo rate at 7% and the prime lending rate at 10.5%. The SARB noted that, since September last year, rates have been lowered by a cu...