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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Another poll has confirmed a drop in Lula’s popularity, the STF rejected the lifetime review of the INSS, and next week will be slower due to the federal holiday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Mar 2024

Yesterday, another government rating poll was published confirming a drop in the President's popularity. The Datafolha poll showed that the negative ratings (bad/very bad) of the Lula (PT) government grew by three percentage points compared to December last year, reaching 33%. Also yesterday, the...

Slide Presentation: Venezuela - Assessing Risks and Opportunities
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Mar 2024

Get insight into Venezuela's political and macro outlook scenarios with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Venezuela: Assessing Risks and Opportunities".

COPOM Watch: Singular, at last
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Mar 2024

As expected, at its March meeting the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee reduced the SELIC rate by 0.50%, from 11.75% to 10.75%. And although the communiqué that announced the meeting’s results was very similar to that disclosed in January, there was a fundamental change: while the previous...

A good surprise, but road ahead no less difficult
TURKEY · Report · 21 Mar 2024

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the CBRT surprised markets positively today by raising the policy rate by 500 bps to 50%, versus median expectations of no change. The MPC also adjusted “the monetary policy operational framework by setting the overnight borrowing and lending rates 300 basis...

Haddad and Lula discuss state debt, two bills from the Executive Office begin to block the agenda in the House, and the STF adjudicates the lifetime review of the INSS
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Mar 2024

The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, said that President Lula has already approved the government's proposal to review the criteria for indexing state debt. The governor of Rio de Janeiro, Claudio Castro (PL), said that he is considering calling on the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to renegoti...

Russian macro: balance of payments to remain stable in 2024 as foreign trade flows evolve
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Mar 2024

The recent CBR statistics indicate that Russia’s current account remained steady in 2M24 amid relatively stable exports and imports. The trade surplus was wide enough to overlap the traditionally negative services and income balances. The spread between Brent and Urals reportedly narrowed in rece...

EU gives Ukraine EUR 4.9 billion non-military aid
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Mar 2024

On March 20 the President of the European Commission made the announcement. The money has already been released to Ukraine. The money comes from a fund established in March 2024 to pay salaries, welfare and to ensure that infrastructure is kept in a usable condition. In 2022 the EU gave Ukraine E...

Conflict between the government and the MNB carries negative potential for the forint
HUNGARY · Report · 20 Mar 2024

The key story this month is the ongoing conflict between the government and the MNB, which has gotten sharper recently in the wake of a Finance Ministry proposal to amend the Central Bank Act. This amendment would be about the control of the Bank’s long-existing wealth trust, which is a non-polic...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 20 Mar 2024

Mar 7 Government: Kazakhstan will strengthen monitoring of international transactions for transfer pricing. President: Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia have signed an agreement on a joint project to construct a 1 GW wind power farm. National pipeline company: The consolidated net profit of KazTransOil...

Important bills were put to a vote in Congress yesterday, the STF will adjudicate the lifetime review of the INSS today, and the Central Bank will announce the basic interest rate today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Mar 2024

Important bills were put to a vote in the House and Senate yesterday. The Senate Plenary approved a bill that creates the National Circular Economy Policy, to encourage more conscious use of resources and prioritize renewable products. In the House, bills were approved that amend the Civil Code t...

Serene macro indicators face uncertain political events
URUGUAY · Report · 20 Mar 2024

Uruguay's relatively calm macro indicators contrast with an environment of uncertain upcoming political events. Such political intensity is not only magnified by this year’s presidential election but also by the labor unions trying to reach, before the deadline on April 27, the required 280,000 s...

Collapse of the Western narrative
UKRAINE · Report · 19 Mar 2024

The gloomy sentiments of winter have transformed into a “we’ll cope with that” attitude. Ukrainian forces retreated from Avdiivka due to a shortage of ammunition, while the Russians employed new tactics of distant, massive barrages with guided aerial bombs. The retreat was painful, but the withdr...

Four bills submitted by the government begin to block the agenda in the Lower House, the deadline to submit bills on income taxation and payroll tax ends today, and Haddad meets with Juscelino Filho to discuss import taxes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Mar 2024

Today, four bills submitted by the Executive Office with a constitutional urgent status begin to block the agenda of the House. The first is the bill that establishes tax and customs compliance programs within the scope of the Federal Revenue Service. Also today, the 90-day deadline for the gover...

Tajik-Kyrgyz Border being agreed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Mar 2024

On March 17 the two countries stated that they had agreed on 11 km of their 972 km border. Over 700 km is now demarcated. The two nations have a border dispute dating back to the dissolution of the USSR in 1991. The countries have repeatedly fought a low level conflict over the border. Both are m...

The labor market tightens, supportive of wage pressure
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Mar 2024

The recovery in the labor market continues In February, the (regular) unemployment rate remained low at 3.3 percent, compared with 3.2 percent a month ago (seasonally adjusted). According to original data, the broad unemployment rate fell to 5.4% from 5.9% a month ago and 10.2% in October. The nu...

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