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Trzaskowski wins (?) the first round by a tiny margin according to exit polls. The second will likely be lost.
POLAND · In Brief · 18 May 2025

According to the exit polls, Rafał Trzaskowski won the first round of presidential elections today. We expected this win (if confirmed by the actual results on Monday or Tuesday), but the exit polls give him only 30.8% vs 29.1% for Nawrocki. The actual election results may be even closer. In our ...

The fork in the road
TURKEY · Report · 18 May 2025

With PKK declaring an end to the armed struggle, Turkey’s half century-long nightmare of violent separatism is finally over. Now is the time to build on this success to draft a new constitution, preferably ratified in parliament to address the grievance of Kurds. Yet, exactly how Messrs. Erdog...

GULF WEEKLY: Trump tours GCC, PIF launches AI champion, oil eases on talk of an Iran deal, Mumtalakat achieves record profit
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 May 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil prices eased back to $64 after Trump said on Thursday that an Iran deal might be close. * April data showed only a small rise in OPEC+ V8 output and continued Kazakh overproduction. * The White House counted $1trn in ...

April CPI analysis: overseas travel drives inflation surprise; likelihood of rate cut declines
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 May 2025

Israel’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.1% in April, exceeding market expectations for 0.6%-0.7%. The surprise was driven primarily by a 31% jump in overseas travel costs. The sharp increase in flight prices abroad in April likely reflects high demand ahead of the summer season. Since 2023,...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia—An avalanche of impeachment proposals and the weakening economy to increasingly challenge Nikol Pashinyan
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 May 2025

Misfortunes tend to occur in succession or clusters rather than in isolation, and this applies in full force to PM Pashinyan. Despite all the fanfare surrounding the March announcement that the draft peace deal with Azerbaijan had been finalized, nothing has been signed, while April brought about...

Haddad rules out a broad fiscal package and denies a Bolsa Família hike, the PT signals support for the INSS CPI with a focus on the past administration, and Congress prepares for key committee meetings on tax reform and AI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 May 2025

Yesterday, May 15, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad addressed reports of a possible fiscal adjustment package. In conversations with journalists, he stated that the ministry is actually working on targeted measures to help meet the 2025 fiscal target. The PT leader in the Senate, Senator Rogério ...

Understanding Argentina's current stance on exchange rate and monetary policies
ARGENTINA · Report · 16 May 2025

The economic policies enacted by Argentina’s government since December 2023 have been successful on many fronts, but there are storm clouds on the horizon that cannot be ignored. The most important achievement so far has been fiscal consolidation. However, while impressive and strictly necessary ...

One battle won, but the war will continue
ECUADOR · Report · 15 May 2025

In an inaugural session of Congress presided over by Anabella Azin, President Noboa’s mother, the official party ADN achieved total control (as of now) of the Assembly, placing Nils Olsen as president and Mishel Mancheno as first vice president. It also gained a majority in the important Administ...

Lula questions China on TikTok and digital harms, Senate hears minister on INSS fraud and unauthorized deductions, and nearly half a million retirees file complaints over benefit irregularities
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 May 2025

Yesterday, May 14, during a conversation with journalists, President Lula said that he questioned Chinese President Xi Jinping about TikTok. According to him, First Lady Janja da Silva spoke during the dinner to explain what is happening in Brazil, “especially against women and children,” in rela...

May 12 elections: A wake-up call to BBM and an audience for progressive thoughts
PHILIPPINES · Report · 15 May 2025

A quick glance at the results of the Philippines’ May 12 mid-term elections shows initial signs that the Filipino electorate has started repudiating movie stars and game show hosts, political dynasties, deadwood, and those suspected of plunder and corruption. The formula of name recall, political...

Economic growth in 4M25 looked strong y-o-y amid a low base effect
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 May 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics announced that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy of economic activity that includes industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, trade, and IT/communication segments) grew by 8.5% y-o-y in 4M25. To remind the m-o-m statistics are unavailable for t...

Israel’s April CPI due today: we expect 0.6% rise—ceasefire progress may influence BOI policy
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 May 2025

The Central Bureau of Statistics is expected to release April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data today, and our expectation is for a 0.6% monthly rise, bringing the annual inflation rate to around 3.1%. Seasonal drivers behind the headline figure While 0.6% may appear elevated, April is traditiona...

Peru: Cabinet crisis
PERU · In Brief · 14 May 2025

Under pressure from Congress, last night President Dina Boluarte sacked two ministers, the highly respected Finance Minister, José Salardi, and the Interior Minister, Julio Diaz. Apparently, she was looking for support from political groups to avoid an impeachment of her loyal Prime Minister Gust...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 May 2025

Apr 30 Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan is considering an increase of oil supplies to Germany to 2.2 mln tons in 2025 (vs initially planned 1.5 mln tons). Parliament: The Lower Chamber has approved a new Tax Code, which assumes VAT increases up to 16%. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Kazakhstan introduce...

Blow hot and cold
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 May 2025

The minutes from last week’s Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting sounded more ambiguous than the statement released at the time. The tone of the original document, which by design is much less detailed than the minutes, suggested a high probability that the Committee would opt to maintain t...

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