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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

An encouraging print in the long disinflation journey
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2025

Consumer prices rose by a markedly lower than expected 2.3%, m/m, versus market consensus of 3% (February 2024: 4.5%). Our miss primarily stemmed from a better performance in food, and to a lesser extent textile and health sub-categories. The 12-month CPI inflation thus fell further to 39.1% -- a...

Politics: Amid a delicate balancing act, Sheinbaum moves against drug cartel kingpins
MEXICO · Report · 03 Mar 2025

Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration is confronting the thorny problem of drug trafficking on different fronts, in all cases with pressure from Donald Trump inevitably and constantly looming in the background. Domestically, the request by drug trafficker Mayo Zambada, illegally kidnapped from Mexic...

Oval Office showdown: no peace deal in sight, Ukraine fights on amid tough road ahead
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Mar 2025

I expected Trump’s peace initiative to fail at some stage, but the way it unfolded in the Oval Office was particularly harsh. It took me some time to gather my thoughts and form a vision of how things might develop from here. So, firstly, what happened? Donald Trump ran into serious trouble fulfi...

Peace hopes and rate cuts
TURKEY · Report · 02 Mar 2025

PKK’s honorary leader Ocalan finally issued a call for PKK’s disarmament and self-abolition, which covers Syrian Kurds, too. While PKK’s immediate declaration of ceasefire is an encouraging response in terms pushing the process forward, “getting there” -- whether the end game is satisfying Kurdis...

Cabinet outrage ignores realpolitik
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Feb 2025 · 1 response

The government, as is its custom on every subject, has been quick to celebrate on social media (and everywhere possible) the great 2024 labor market results. Officials say these show that economic recovery is fully underway; that the right is peddling a false tale that the economy is ailing; and ...

Ministerial reform strengthens inner circle but fails to address a major challenge
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Feb 2025

President Lula’s (PT) ministerial reform has begun with risky moves. The Minister of Health, Nísia Trindade, has been replaced by the Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha (PT), confirming Trindade’s political sidelining. On the same day she was replaced, Trindade participated in...

Essential CIS Politics: March 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 28 Feb 2025

- America and Russia negotiate: Ukraine and the EU not invited. - America and Europe bid for rights to Ukrainian minerals. - America and Russia compete for multi-billion dollar Indian fighter jet contract. - Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan sign historic final border deal.

Is maximum pressure back?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Feb 2025

Using his Truth Social account, President Trump announced on February 26 the revocation of the "Oil Transaction Agreement" signed by the Biden and Maduro governments on November 26, 2022. We assume he refers to General License 41 (GL 41), which allowed Chevron to resume activities in Venezuela un...

Feb CCA Highlights: Armenia keeps cutting rates, Georgia's GDP growth has a very strong start to the year, Uzbekistan issues Eurobonds for US$1.5bn, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan settle multi-year border dispute
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Feb 2025

The Feb CCA highlights key macro-political events in the region: Armenia: GDP grows by 5.9% in 2024 Armenia: CPI rises by 1.7% y/y in Jan Armenia: Monthly economic indicator increases by 7.1% YoY in Jan Armenia: Central Bank cuts policy rate by 25bpts to 6.75% Armenia: FX reserves fall to ...

Lula gave an optimistic speech about the economy, VP Alckmin will meet with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick to discuss tariffs, and Padilha will replace Trindade at the Ministry of Health next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Feb 2025

During an event in Santos, alongside São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), Lula delivered an optimistic speech about the economy. He stated that Brazil will grow 3.8% in 2024 and slightly over 2.5% in 2025, contradicting what he believes are the pessimistic forecasts of some econ...

Strong growth with (re-)rebalancing…
TURKEY · Report · 28 Feb 2025

The Turkish economy expanded at a sequential pace of 1.7%, q/q, in the final quarter of the year, broadly in line with forecasts, after slight contractions in the previous two quarters (in calendar- and seasonally-adjusted terms). Activity expanded by 3%, y/y, in Q4, with GDP thus growing by 3.2%...

GULF WEEKLY: Fitch negative outlook on Bahrain, Saudi issues bonds, Gaza's ceasefire deadline looms
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Feb 2025 · 2 responses

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent oil dipped to $72, the lowest this year, on weak economic data. * The US imposed new sanctions on Iran’s exports and ended a waiver for Chevron in Venezuela. * Moody’s added a positive outlook for Oman’s banking but...

So far, so good
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Feb 2025

In the midst of a deteriorating perception of Indonesia's economy, the country posted an encouraging Q4 2024 GDP growth result, at 5.02% Y/Y. This was higher than the 4.95% annual growth for the previous quarter. On a Q/Q basis, the Indonesian economy expanded by 0.53%, which followed the regular...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Feb 2025

The Russian market moved up on the wave of optimism regarding the potential resolution of the conflict in Ukraine. Many investors think it may happen in the coming months, and some sanctions on Russia could be removed in the aftermath. Moreover, this factor is treated as disinflationary, which ma...

More news on fiscal policy, more bad than good, today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Feb 2025

On the same day that Cabinet Minister Guyás told the press that the government remains committed to meet this year's 3.7% of GDP fiscal deficit target (after the preliminary actual 4.8% deficit ratio in 2024, both figures referring to general government by Eurostat methodology), the economy minis...

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