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FinMin and Congress square off
COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Oct 2024

The most interesting pistol duel of this legislature is taking place between the minister of finance and the congressional opposition. The issue at hand is a two-headed beast, composed of the 2025 budget and the so-called financing act (aka the second tax reform). The budget implicitly takes for ...

Russian macro: The 2025 budget looks reasonable but the 2024 amendments puzzle investors
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Oct 2024

In recent days, the Russian government submitted to the State Duma the final draft of a three-year rolling budget (2025-2027) that at a glance looked quite peculiar, although that is not unusual. As macroeconomic growth forecasts supporting the budgetary planning were usually conservative, while ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Oct 2024

Sep 23 Ministry of Agriculture: The Government of Kazakhstan has upgraded the 2024 grain harvest forecast and expects to harvest at least 20 mln tons versus 13-14 mln tons earlier. Government: Kazakhstan will increase financing of the agriculture industry by 20% to $1.5 bln in 2025. Sep 24 Presid...

Moody’s has upgraded Brazil’s credit rating, the Gas Assistance Program will be reformatted to comply with the fiscal framework, and the CAE will hold a public hearing on Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Oct 2024

The credit rating agency Moody’s has upgraded Brazil’s sovereign credit rating from Ba2 to Ba1, maintaining a Positive outlook. Late yesterday, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad spoke to the press, acknowledging that achieving investment-grade status is not guaranteed, and nothing is “assured.” He...

Some good-looking fiscal data and the negative forint impact of the ugly Middle East situation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Oct 2024

Starting with the bad news, the forint has just been kicked out of its cosy EURHUF 390-395 range it held for quite a while, to quite unnervingly close to the 400 line, which the MNB obviously will not want to see being crossed, for the potential, and even likely, negative impact on domestic infla...

China’s "drip-drip" stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 01 Oct 2024

The PBOC announced a series of measures that some compared (with a modicum of hyperbole) to a bazooka. Bloomberg said it was a “massive adrenaline shot." One reporter said he was at the press conference “typing with nervous fingers.” The market took the announcements on board, with the CSI 300 In...

Lula attends the Mexican President’s inauguration, the Minister of Finance holds a meeting to discuss advertising for betting platforms, and the Senate Economic Affairs Committee discusses Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Oct 2024

President Lula continues his agenda in Mexico. Today, he will attend the inauguration of President Claudia Sheinbaum. Afterward, he will return to Brazil. The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, will hold a meeting this afternoon to discuss advertising for betting platforms in the country. Betw...

The new ways of services exports
INDIA · Report · 01 Oct 2024

The most important success of the Indian economy lies in IT and in a wide array of services exports enabled by IT. This field began with global firms contracting out to specialized IT services firms that had specialized abilities in operating in India. There is now an increasing shift to "Global ...

The Central Bank lowers the monetary policy rate again
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Oct 2024

The monetary policy rate in October 2024 will be 25 basis points lower than in the previous month. Yesterday, the Central Bank decided to set the monetary policy rate at 6.50% per year. Additionally, the liquidity expansion facility rate (1-day Repos) is being lowered from 7.25% to 7.00% per year...

SAUDI ARABIA: Deficit projections widen in pre-budget statement
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Oct 2024 · 2 responses

The Ministry of Finance has revised up its projection for expenditure this year, driven by social benefits and goods & services, and in turn sees the deficit widening to -2.9% of GDP. It also sees wider deficits in subsequent years, averaging -2.7% of GDP in 2025-27.

New uncertainty
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Oct 2024

Venezuela is in limbo and not. It is in limbo because the National Electoral Council has not published the results of our past elections in accordance with the law, and the Supreme Court's ruling designating Nicolás Maduro the victor was illegal. This awarded Maduro with power but no legitimacy a...

Essential CIS Politics: October 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Oct 2024

* Putin announces change in Russian nuclear doctrine. * Russia’s relationship with Iran gets complicated. * Russian troops entered Vuhledar as Ukraine seeks aid in the US. * Armenia claims it thwarted a coup attempt. * Azerbaijan holds elections—including in Nagorno-K...

The upcoming municipal elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Sep 2024

This is the final week of the municipal election campaign before the first round, which will take place next Sunday. President Lula will attend the inauguration of Claudia Sheinbaum as the president of Mexico. In the Senate, the Economic Affairs Committee continues its public hearings on Tax Refo...

Fiscal Easing Complicates the Central Bank’s Work
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Sep 2024

The economy is growing faster than its potential, as confirmed by labor market data. In August, the unemployment rate, adjusted for seasonal effects, reached the lowest level in the series. However, the preliminary inflation data for September showed favorable signs, which we believe are temporar...

Hopes deferred
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Sep 2024

El Salvador’s short-term economic outlook looks less hopeful we projected in our April 2024 report, after analyzing H1 trends. Deviation from key assumptions we made in the April forecasting exercise has turned perspectives less favorable. The eventual better performance that we expected either c...

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