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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The IMF says “hmmmm”
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 May 2025 · 1 response

The purpose of the IMF’s flexible line of credit is to help countries with generally sound fundamentals meet balance of payments needs, and boost market confidence during periods of heightened market risk. That is, it was created as a “spare tire” or a bumper to help eligible countries navigate t...

Apr CCA highlights: Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan keep policy rates unchanged, Armenia concludes 5th review of IMF's SBA, Georgia defies expectations and grows strongly, by 9.3 % YoY in 1Q
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 May 2025

I review key economic and political events in the CCA in April: Armenia: CPI rises to 3.3% YoY in Mar Armenia: Monthly economic indicator grows by 3.7% YoY in Mar Armenia: IMF and Armenia reach staff level agreement on the Fifth Review of the SBA Armenia: FX reserves jump in Mar on Eurobon...

The Russian economy decelerates amid unclear prospects for the rest of the year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 May 2025

Rosstat reported that in 1Q25, industrial output grew by a mere 1.1% y-o-y as in March alone it was up by 0.8% y-o-y. Seasonally adjusted industrial output contracted last month by 0.7% m-o-m. The mining segment was down y-o-y by 3.7% and 4.1% in 1Q25 and March alone. This contraction stemmed mai...

Essential CIS Politics: May 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 May 2025

- Progress on Ukraine War peace deal stalls despite numerous meetings and proposals by all sides. - Russia launches minor offensive; gains very limited. - North Korean military presence in Russia praised by Putin and Gerasimov. - Geopolitical shift—Central Asian countries f...

Improved U.S.–Ukraine resource deal offers hope amid uncertainty
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 May 2025

The U.S. and Ukraine have signed a resource deal. At the time of writing, the document had not yet been released, but numerous comments have emerged from individuals who have reviewed it. According to these comments, the document remains fairly general, but it outlines a well-balanced framework. ...

South Africa’s Budget 2025 uncertainty continues
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Apr 2025

The turbulence surrounding South Africa’s 2025 Budget has shown no signs of easing. Initially postponed from its traditional February slot to March 12—marking an unprecedented delay—the Budget has continued to face intense political debate, particularly over the proposed value-added tax (VAT) inc...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Q1 2025 GDP maintains slowdown trend, growing just 0.6% YoY according to timely figures
MEXICO · In Brief · 30 Apr 2025

Q1 2025 GDP maintains slowdown trend, growing just 0.6% YoY due to industrial contraction and weakening services According to timely figures from INEGI, Mexico’s GDP in Q1 2025 posted weak annual growth of 0.6% (seasonally adjusted), similar to the previous quarter and nearly one percentage point...

The União Progressista merger party has been formed, and Congress should resume at full speed next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Apr 2025

Yesterday, April 29, the União Brasil and Progressista Party (PP) formally launched a party federation, signaling support for the opposition despite both parties' holding ministerial positions in President Lula’s government. The federation will initially be jointly led by PP President Ciro Noguei...

After Trump's tariffs
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Apr 2025

The world was shaken by the tariffs imposed by US President Trump. While they may take time to be fully implemented (if they are fully implemented) the news has hit exporters around the world, with the export performance of each country under close review to see how big the impact of these tariff...

Negative GDP growth reported for Q1
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Apr 2025

Preliminary, seasonally and day-adjusted GDP data shows -0.2% qoq, -0.4% yoy real growth for Q1, as reported this morning. This came after +0.6% qoq, +0.1% yoy in Q4, and 0.5% growth in full-year 2024. In an unusually brief statement, KSH only said that Q1 growth was supported by services but hel...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 30 Apr 2025

Apr 17 The Parliament: The Upper Chamber of the Parliament of Kazakhstan has ratified the agreement with the CIS on free trade in the services sector. Ministry of Trade: Kazakhstan has not yet discussed the issue of retaliatory tariff increases on imports. President: During a telephone conversati...

Modest recovery faces internal and external challenges
ISRAEL · Report · 29 Apr 2025

Israel’s economy continued to expand in the first quarter of 2025, although the level of activity remained below its potential trajectory. Despite the ongoing recovery, the economy has clearly not yet returned to full productive capacity. On the geopolitical front, the overall risk environment...

Trump’s peace deal: a fairy tale that ends in failure
UKRAINE · Report · 29 Apr 2025

Despite the hullabaloo over "peace deal" progress over the past month, nothing has fundamentally changed: Russia continues its intense missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities and towns, and heavy fighting along the frontline persists. U.S. President Donald Trump's "peace by force" appr...

The latest poll shows a slight decline in Lula’s disapproval rating, the União Progressista merger party should be formalized today, and Lula is expected to meet with union leaders today, ahead of the Labor Day holiday on May 1
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2025

The latest Latam Pulse Brazil/AtlasIntel poll, released yesterday, April 28, shows a slight decline in President Lula’s (PT) disapproval rating. Although disapproval remains higher than approval, the negative rating fell from 53.6% to 50.1%. Today, União Brasil (UB) President Antônio Rueda and Pr...

Slowdown and trepidation
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Apr 2025

El Salvador’s economic trends in 2024 looked like a return to the long-run results characteristic of the pre-pandemic decade: relatively weak economic activity, growth of 2% to 2.5% y/y; weak public sector results, leading to very high public debt; and worries about long-run fiscal sustainability...

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