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The government will meet with food sector representatives to discuss food prices, rumors in Brasilia suggest Haddad could be replaced, and Lula said he has chosen a replacement for Minister Padilha
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Feb 2025

In an effort to accelerate a decline in food prices, the government is expected to meet again with the supermarket and food sector to discuss the issue. Chief of Staff Rui Costa (PT) stated that discussions are underway for the meeting to take place next week. Yesterday, rumors emerged about a p...

Russian industry decelerates sharply in January
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Feb 2025

Rosstat reported that the industrial output was up by 2.2% y-o-y in January, which appeared unexpected as it was up by 8.2% y-o-y in December. Seasonally and calendar-adjusted industrial output contracted by 3.2% m-o-m. It might be too early to say that growth trends changed abruptly last month, ...

Volatile times bringing surprising favor to the region
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Feb 2025

Costa Rica dealt with an array of factors that slowed economic activity in 2024. However, real GDP growth outperformed our forecast, although growth was lower than in 2023. Domestic and external exogenous elements influenced the economic deceleration, such as a restrictive monetary policy stance ...

Business sector indicators for January signal a return to pre-war levels
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Feb 2025

The Bank of Israel's Composite State-of-the-Economy Index increased by 0.6% in January, following an upward revision of December's data to 0.9% (compared to the previous estimate of 0.7%) and a revision of November's data to 0.3%. This rise in the index reflects a 0.9% increase in business sector...

Another poll confirms Lula’s decline in popularity, the Minister of Health will be replaced, and the Ministry of Labor announced a provisional measure on accessing FGTS funds
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Feb 2025 · 2 responses

Another public opinion poll released yesterday confirmed the decline in President Lula’s popularity. According to CNT/MDA, disapproval of the government has reached its worst level since January 2023. Yesterday, the dismissal of Health Minister Nísia Trindade was confirmed. She will be replaced b...

No surprise from the last Monetary Council rate-setting meeting chaired by outgoing governor Matolcsy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Feb 2025

As governor Matolcsy is set to leave the MNB on March 3, today's was the last regular monthly rate-setting meeting chaired by him in the Monetary Council. There was absolutely no surprise caused by the Council on this occasion: the base rate was kept at 6.5%, the interest rate corridor at 5.5-7.5...

Lula announced more payments from the Pé de Meia educational program, he will meet with the Minister of Labor to discuss the FGTS payments, and the Federal Budget should be put to a vote on March 11
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Feb 2025

Yesterday, President Lula delivered a nationwide address on radio and TV to announce two measures. The first is that today, a payment of R$ 1,000 from the Pé de Meia program will be made. This is a financial-educational incentive program aimed at students enrolled in public high schools. Today, L...

Trump’s quick fixes hit a wall
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Feb 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump appears disappointed and irritated that his fast-track approach to brokering a Russia-Ukraine peace deal has stalled from the start. It’s evident that the new U.S. administration lacks a strategic plan for countering Russian aggression. Instead, the strategy seems to i...

Economics: Even as core prices show little movement, inflation continues to trend lower but could reverse course in the medium term
MEXICO · Report · 25 Feb 2025

In January, inflation broke well over a full percentage point below readings of a year prior. This is the latest sign of a clear downward trend that has largely been the result of the deceleration of non-core inflation’s agricultural products component, which has registered significant decreases....

Senate Committees pose challenges to the government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Feb 2025

This is the week before Carnival, with reduced activities in Brasília. The main event is the conciliation meeting led by the Supreme Federal Court (STF) regarding parliamentary fund transfers. The Lower House may vote on a complementary bill (PLP) that restores outstanding payments from 2019 that...

Bank of Israel holds rate at 4.5%, maintains hawkish stance
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Feb 2025

The central bank of Israel kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.5% on February 24th, citing elevated inflation (3.8%) and a tight labor market. While the decision was widely anticipated, the central bank adopted a hawkish stance, emphasizing persistent inflation risks driven by geopoli...

Time is the master of reason
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Feb 2025

The appreciation of the Brazilian real at the beginning of 2025, close to 7.6%, partially reversed the exchange rate depreciation process observed throughout last year, which had intensified in December. This movement at the beginning of the year followed the weakening of the U.S. dollar in t...

Politics: Corruption in Morena and the 4T
MEXICO · Report · 24 Feb 2025

Despite the fight against corruption's being the central plank of Morena and the Fourth Transformation, as well as the center of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s narrative, the reality has been quite different. In Transparency International’s recently released Corruption Perception Index 2024, which...

Two bills may be put to a vote in the House, Justice Dino will hold a conciliation meeting this week on parliamentary fund transfers, and a cabinet reshuffle remains on the radar
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Feb 2025

In the Lower House, some important bills are on the agenda. Two bills aimed at facilitating small business exports may be put to a vote: PL No. 4,043/24, which reduces taxes for small exporters, and PLP No. 167/24, which simplifies the refund process for taxes already paid on exported products fo...

Jittery politics, jittery reserves
TURKEY · Report · 23 Feb 2025 · 2 responses

On Friday, the stock market experienced a selling frenzy, largely driven by rumors of Treasury and Finance Minister Simsek’s ouster, or replacement by Mr. Berat Albayrak. The politics author spent the weekend investigating these rumors, concluding they are not credible at all. On the other han...

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