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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Markets shrug at the Lebanon conflict, but are underestimating the risks
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Sep 2024

Markets have shrugged off the risks from the conflict in Lebanon, including the killing of Hezbollah's leader and a pending ground invasion. Hezbollah may not be as weakened as thought and, although Iran has shown restraint until now, this may be a step too far. Lots of human suffering is ahead. ...

More opposition to diversion of P89.9 billion to PhilHealth
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Sep 2024

A couple of days ago, former high-ranking officials including former cabinet secretaries joined the broadening section of Philippine society by issuing a statement opposing the diversion of P89.9 billion of the Philippine Health Insurance Corporation (PhilHealth) funds to the National Treasury to...

Politics: New Morena leadership, with Sheinbaum increasingly fenced in by AMLO and a highly disparate party
MEXICO · Report · 30 Sep 2024

A week ago, 3,000 delegates to a Morena party congress were called upon to raise their hands to endorse a new national executive committee, whose composition the national leadership only read out immediately before the seemingly unanimous vote. The new leadership is heavily stacked with AMLO loya...

This is the last week for municipal campaigns, the Senate will hold Galípolo’s confirmation hearings on October 8, and the priority in the House is the second Tax Reform regulation bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Sep 2024

This is the last week of the municipal election campaign period before the first round, which will take place next Sunday. The campaign period ends on Thursday (October 3). On October 8, according to Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), the Senate floor will analyze Gabriel Galípolo's appoi...

Economics: The Mexican economy continues to lose steam; Banxico lowers the reference rate by 25 bp
MEXICO · Report · 30 Sep 2024

Indicators published over the course of September have shown the Mexican economy accentuating its slowdown. Industrial sector growth trickled to a mere +0.6% in July, as did manufacturing, while that of aggregate supply and demand sputtered to just shy of a single percentage point in the second q...

South Caucasus in flux
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 30 Sep 2024

Across the Caucasus, the center of gravity has been reshaped by events in the last few decades. Soviet-era political and economic ties have been substituted by multipolar, international ones. But, suddenly, in recent months, countries in the region are being drawn quickly in different directions ...

Bond yields push higher on downgrade and escalation
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Sep 2024

1. Bonds sold off modestly yesterday on Moody’s two-notch downgrade and the escalation in the North. 2. Recent economic indicators point to growth acceleration in Q3, at least until the escalation in September. 3. With inflation expected to remain elevated for most of 2025, monetary easing ...

Moody's two notch downgrade and escalation weigh on bond yields
ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 Sep 2024

Geopolitics: Israel has escalated intensely its attacks on Hezbollah in a series of attacks, first the pager explosions, then massive air attacks and recently the Nasrallah assassination and bombing of missile storage facilities in Beirut. The retaliation from Hezbollah has so far been minor, pos...

Back to foreign policy, and more…
TURKEY · Report · 29 Sep 2024 · 2 responses

New York City mayor Eric Adams spared the politics author the boring task of covering Ekrem Imamoglu’s pending disbarment from political office and the potential for early elections. Instead, this week’s political essays are largely dedicated to foreign affairs. The indictment of NYC mayor Ada...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco and ADQ issue debt, Gulf leaders attend UN, Oman has a strong Q2 GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Sep 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped as the market offset returning Libyan and Saudi supply against China’s stimulus plans. * OPEC’s long-term demand forecasts were hiked and it sees 18m b/d demand growth by 2050. * Aramco issued $3bn in sukuk, li...

Kazakhstan macro: budgetary policy to gradually improve
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Sep 2024

The August budgetary statistics brought no surprises as trends that had emerged previously remain the same. At the same time, recent statistics and some official publications hinted at some changes in budgetary policy and the implications for exchange rate dynamics. Even though the tenge weakened...

Sep CCA Highlights: Armenia keeps easing, Azerbaijan reveals key assumptions of 2025 budget, Georgia grows by 9.0% over 1H, Uzbekistan leaves policy rates unchanged
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Sep 2024

We briefly comment on the key macro and political events in the CCA in Sep: Armenia: Central Bank cuts policy rate by 25bpts to 7.50% Armenia: CPI remains contained at 1.3% YoY in Aug Armenia: Central Bank expects economy to grow by 5.8-6.5% in 2024 Armenia: Monthly economic indicator slow...

The start of the easing cycle
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Sep 2024

As the world knows, on September 18, 2024, the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC) decided to slash the Federal Funds rate by 50 basis points. That was the first step in the US Fed's easing cycle. One day prior to that decision, after convening for two days, Bank Indonesia als...

The STF will decide on the PIS/Cofins tax case in early October, IBGE employees protest against the institute’s president, and Lula is optimistic about the Mercosur-EU trade agreement
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Sep 2024

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will soon rule on another important tax matter. A virtual plenary session has been scheduled between October 4 and 11 to analyze a decree from President Lula on the PIS/Cofins tax rate. Today, the national union of IBGE employees, Assibge-SN, organized a protest ag...

Industrial growth moderates but still looks not too bad
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Sep 2024

Russian industrial output grew y-o-y by 4.5% and 2.7% in 8M24 and August alone. In the latter case, according to Rosstat, it grew by 0.8% m-o-m in seasonally adjusted terms. In 1H24 industry grew by 5.0%. Some moderation of the y-o-y growth looked natural as in 2023 it grew by over 6.0% from Augu...

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