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Election campaign heats up; economy grew 3.2% in 2024; new finance minister appointed; BCRP extends pause
PERU · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response

In this report, we discuss indications that the election campaign will be brought forward; improved economic performance, resulting in real GDP advancing 4.9% in December and 3.3% in full-year 2024; the appointment of José Salardi as Economy and Finance Minister; and the decision by the BCRP’s Bo...

Economics: Year-end results confirm the latest episode in the ongoing deterioration of public finances, with no end in sight
MEXICO · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response

A profound deterioration of public finances played out in 2024, as we had anticipated as far back as when we analyzed the economic package projected for last calendar year that was published in September 2023. The year 2024 brought troubling trends in revenue, as well as in the degree of growth a...

Actions out of touch with reality and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Feb 2025

Negotiations over the Ministerial Reform are ongoing. In both the Lower House and the Senate, leaders are working toward an agreement on the leadership of standing committees, which are expected to be installed after Carnaval. President Lula may meet with leaders of the agency Ibama to discuss oi...

Uncertainty and weak consumption slow inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response

In January, the monthly inflation rate declined to 9 percent from its December 2024 rate of 13 percent. Seasonal factors, including a slow post-holiday restart of economic activity, weak sales, and strong tax payments, were drivers of this decline. An additional driver was the narrowing of the ex...

Spring shoots in autumn?
CHILE · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response

The economy appears to be gaining momentum. Three consecutive months of positive variation in the IMACEC marks a clear shift away from a prolonged period of stagnation, and supports the 2% growth being forecast for 2025. The economy now appears poised to expand at a pace closer to its potential. ...

Politics: Sheinbaum concentrates decision making in a strong, all-powerful presidency
MEXICO · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response

While President Claudia Sheinbaum has succeeded in rallying broad support in response to Donald Trump’s threats on tariffs, migration, and national sovereignty, the fact remains that her policies and orientation represent a continuity with AMLO’s unipersonal style of governing. Her decisions, in ...

The perils of Penelope
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Feb 2025

Copom’s current balance of risks highlights the asymmetry toward upside inflation risks, including economic overheating, given the positive output gap—one of the fundamentals of the current interest rate hike cycle. Economic slowdown and the consequent reduction of the output gap, thus reducing i...

U.S. and DR to explore collaboration on extraction of rare-earth elements
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 18 Feb 2025

Official data confirmed strong economic growth in 2024, with a 5% annual expansion, and lower unemployment amid rising labor force participation. Preliminary estimates indicate a 3% of GDP current account deficit, and an increase in NFPS debt, to 46.1% of GDP. The new year began with moderate ...

Lula met with government leaders to discuss Eletrobras, pressure on the agency Ibama continues, and Senate President Alcolumbre will meet with party leaders to determine the voting agenda
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Feb 2025

Yesterday, President Lula discussed the Eletrobras issue with Chief of Staff Rui Costa, Minister of Mines and Energy Alexandre Silveira, Minister of Management Esther Dweck and Attorney General Jorge Messias. A conciliation agreement is expected to be announced in the coming days. Yesterday, Mini...

Is the peso overvalued? A technical note
ARGENTINA · Report · 18 Feb 2025

In this report, I argue that, contrary to what President Milei and members of his economic team say, the Argentine peso is overvalued. By how much—I don't know, nor do I think anyone does. I know that the peso is overvalued for three reasons. First, because of the cepo: if it didn't exist, the no...

Israel’s GDP growth slows in Q4 2024, labor market remains tight
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Feb 2025

The initial estimate for the fourth quarter of 2024 reveals a slowdown in Israel’s GDP growth to 2.5%, down from an upwardly revised 5.3% in the previous quarter, according to initial estimates from the Central Bureau of Statistics. GDP fell sharply in Q4 2023 after the economy almost shut down d...

GDP grew by 4.8% in 2024, growth acceleration unlikely this year
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Feb 2025

Last Friday, the Bureau of National Statistics reported that the country’s GDP grew by 4.8%, which is not too bad (albeit the government growth targets are more ambitious). Production of goods (35% of GDP) was up by 5.6%, as industry, agriculture, and construction delivered 2.8%, 13.7%, and 13.1%...

A rare occasion: PM Orbán comments on the forint's exchange rate
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Feb 2025

This morning, PM Orbán has put on to his facebook a short video. In this, he is sitting at his desk, attentively studying a full-page chart with European gas prices. Asked from the backstage how the week is going, he says that they closed last week and also started this week with the discussion o...

Another week of solid data, rising tensions
TURKEY · Report · 16 Feb 2025 · 1 response

Domestic political tensions continue to rise. A new lawsuit has been launched against the Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, while an investigation on bribery in CHP’s last grand convention could lead to the party being managed by a government-appointed trustee for a year or two. The politics author ...

Israel CPI: Inflation rises to 3.8% in January, VAT hike and tariffs drive index higher
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Feb 2025

January CPI overview Israel's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.6% in January, slightly above our forecast of 0.5%, bringing annual inflation to 3.8%, up from 3.2% in December. The increase was primarily driven by the higher VAT, taxes on electric vehicles, and rising electricity, water, and m...

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