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Analysts expect a 75bps base rate cut tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2024

The regular monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council is due tomorrow. Analysts responding to Portfolio.hu's usual poll have a median expectation of a 75bps base rate cut, with seven respondents forecasting this step, two expecting a 100bps rate reduction, and another two predicting on...

Putin blames Ukraine for Moscow concert hall terror
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Mar 2024

On March 22 Putin said that the attackers tried to flee to Ukraine and that Ukraine was involved. He did not state how Ukraine was involved. 4 suspects were arrested in Bryansk, which is near Ukraine. It is possible that the suspects were headed to Ukraine even if Ukraine was not connected to the...

The Plot Thickens
TURKEY · Report · 24 Mar 2024 · 2 responses

Battle lines are frozen across the nation with one week left to elections. AKP-MHP have probably lost Ankara and Izmir and are struggling to make any gains against Imamoglu in Istanbul. CHP is sweating to keep its fortresses elsewhere, such as Antalya, Eskisehir and Edirne. While nothing can be r...

Despite inflationary threats in the medium term, conditions likely to support rate cut in April
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Mar 2024

In the past week, the shekel strengthened by 1.2 percent against a basket of currencies, but depreciated after the official exchange rate was fixed on Friday. It seems that in the short term, the shekel will continue to respond to the degree of optimism regarding a possible ceasefire. In the past...

Russia is at war - Putin spokesman
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Mar 2024

On March 22 Dmitry Peskov said that there is a war against Ukraine. Russia had officially labelled it a "special military operation" and criminalized the use of the word "war" in relation to it. However, Putin himself slipped out the word "war" in 2023. Peskov said the situation turned into a war...

GULF WEEKLY: Fitch upgrades Qatar, Dubai merges developers, PIF eyes Saudia, US Gaza resolution vetoed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Mar 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The US’s draft UN resolution calling for (but not “demanding”) an immediate ceasefire in Gaza was vetoed by China and Russia. * Ceasefire talks continue in Qatar, with differences over Palestinian prisoners and repopulatin...

Parade or charade?
COLOMBIA · Report · 22 Mar 2024 · 1 response

There were many reactions to President Gustavo Petro’s idea of convening a Constitutional Assembly. Possibly the most synthesizing one came from constitutional lawyer Juan Manuel Charry, who wrote that Petro doesn’t know whether his role is to subvert the institutional order or to govern (“no sab...

Venezuela Webinar Replay: Assessing Risks and Opportunities
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Mar 2024

Will General License 44 be renewed or reformed, or will it simply expire? What is the oil sector outlook? How is the opposition getting ready for the July presidential elections? How will the Essequibo conflict evolve in the coming months? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webina...

Another poll has confirmed a drop in Lula’s popularity, the STF rejected the lifetime review of the INSS, and next week will be slower due to the federal holiday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Mar 2024

Yesterday, another government rating poll was published confirming a drop in the President's popularity. The Datafolha poll showed that the negative ratings (bad/very bad) of the Lula (PT) government grew by three percentage points compared to December last year, reaching 33%. Also yesterday, the...

Slide Presentation: Venezuela - Assessing Risks and Opportunities
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Mar 2024

Get insight into Venezuela's political and macro outlook scenarios with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Venezuela: Assessing Risks and Opportunities".

COPOM Watch: Singular, at last
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Mar 2024

As expected, at its March meeting the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee reduced the SELIC rate by 0.50%, from 11.75% to 10.75%. And although the communiqué that announced the meeting’s results was very similar to that disclosed in January, there was a fundamental change: while the previous...

A good surprise, but road ahead no less difficult
TURKEY · Report · 21 Mar 2024

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the CBRT surprised markets positively today by raising the policy rate by 500 bps to 50%, versus median expectations of no change. The MPC also adjusted “the monetary policy operational framework by setting the overnight borrowing and lending rates 300 basis...

Haddad and Lula discuss state debt, two bills from the Executive Office begin to block the agenda in the House, and the STF adjudicates the lifetime review of the INSS
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Mar 2024

The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, said that President Lula has already approved the government's proposal to review the criteria for indexing state debt. The governor of Rio de Janeiro, Claudio Castro (PL), said that he is considering calling on the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to renegoti...

Russian macro: balance of payments to remain stable in 2024 as foreign trade flows evolve
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Mar 2024

The recent CBR statistics indicate that Russia’s current account remained steady in 2M24 amid relatively stable exports and imports. The trade surplus was wide enough to overlap the traditionally negative services and income balances. The spread between Brent and Urals reportedly narrowed in rece...

EU gives Ukraine EUR 4.9 billion non-military aid
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Mar 2024

On March 20 the President of the European Commission made the announcement. The money has already been released to Ukraine. The money comes from a fund established in March 2024 to pay salaries, welfare and to ensure that infrastructure is kept in a usable condition. In 2022 the EU gave Ukraine E...

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