Economics: With the heyday of robust commodity prices long past, Mexico's agriculture struggles amid improvised, dysfunctional policies
The government’s response to agriculture over the past year traverses an arc similar to other areas of government policy, including energy, health, education, and communications infrastructure. This response is characterized by strategies directly inherited from the previous administration along with all the problems they continue to entail, public programs aimed at productivity and competitiveness being replaced with spending on welfare programs popular with voters, new public programs and implementation of measures on the fly in response to social pressures of the moment, and major deficiencies in government administrative management affecting production chains.
During much of the 2018-2024 administration, the general context for the agricultural sector was favorable: high domestic and international prices, sustained export momentum driven by US demand, solid domestic demand despite the pandemic, and deficient but abundant channeling of public resources. However, in the last years of the previous administration and the first year of this one, conditions in the agricultural sector have deteriorated.
As has historically been the case at the national and international levels, the GDP of the primary sector has shown relatively high volatility, affected by market events (production and inventory levels), climate, and health issues, especially in the agricultural component as livestock tends to be more stable. In Mexico, agricultural production fell consecutively in 2023 and 2024, while the rebound in 2025 has been insufficient. This week’s Outlook analyzes recent developments in the agricultural sector and the challenges it faces.
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