Republican budget tax revenues remain well behind the plan in 10M25

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 25 Nov 2025 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov
The Ministry of Finance has not yet published a full set of budgetary statistics for 10M25 and at the time of writing this note just released a brief note with several key republican budget numbers. According to the published text, total revenues (including tax revenues, non-tax revenues, incomes from sales of fixed assets, and transfers) climbed to KZT16.4 trln, which was about 76.8% of the yearly plan. Tax revenues reached KZT10.8 trln (71.2% of the plan), while transfers exceeded KZT5.0 trln (87.0% of the 2025 plan). In nominal terms, tax revenues in October (similar to September) were well below the amounts collected in October 2024. In September, tax revenues were also lower than a year ago. In 10M25, the government financed 79.3% of the yearly expenditures and due to a lack of revenues the republican budget deficit widened to nearly KZT3.4 trln and exceeded KZT0.9 trln in October alone. The 2025 budget assumes the deficit at KZT4.1 trln. Even though in November tax collection will go up due to higher flow from taxes paid quarterly, tax revenue flow this year doesn’t look impressive. It looks as though the tenge’s strengthening in October didn’t help and it may trim revenues in November also. There are no concerns about the 2025 budget expenditure financing as republican budget expenditures remain unchanged and if necessary the government can easily find additional resources once more (i.e., as in the previous years). The main intrigue now is the 2026 budget and the announced tax reform that aims to reduce the republican budget's dependence on the exchange rate and the oil price. We think that January and February 2026 budget execution data will be enough to see i...

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