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Consequences of the decline in government approval and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Feb 2025

The Legislative and Judicial branches resume their activities. The pace in the Legislature this week is expected to be slow, with negotiations taking place regarding members of the standing committees in both Houses. On Saturday, truck drivers will meet in São Paulo to discuss the sector’s list o...

A coy central bank in the face of inflation?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Feb 2025

Recent data suggests an unfavorable inflationary trend, marked by the acceleration of its underlying measures. Our forecast points to an inflation rate of 5.8% in 2025, above the level recorded in 2024 and, therefore, also above the tolerance limit for the inflation target. We use our semi-struct...

Politics: Judicial reform running into serious obstacles with the election of judges just four months away
MEXICO · Report · 03 Feb 2025

Morena and the Fourth Transformation’s “Judicial Reform” is encountering major obstacles in its implementation. The reform, based on the popular election of Supreme Court justices, judges, and magistrates on a federal, state, and local level, is viewed as a way of eliminating what has been the ma...

Economics: Activity slowdown projected to continue and deepen in 2025
MEXICO · Report · 03 Feb 2025

The 4Q24 economic indicators point to a continued and deepening slowdown for 2025. 4Q GDP clocked in at a lackluster seasonally adjusted annual 0.6%. This result brought 2024 GDP growth to 1.5%, in line with estimates and less than half the 2023 result. We project weak 0.3% GDP growth for 2025 t...

Congressional activity resumes this week, Lula should submit two important bills to Congress, and the Supreme Federal Court resumes adjudication of major cases
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Feb 2025

With the resumption of activity in the Judiciary and the Legislature, Brasilia is expected to have a busy month. The government’s initial goal is to ensure the approval of the 2025 Budget. President Lula is expected to submit two important proposals to Congress as part of a strategy to boost the ...

A not so auspicious start into 2025
TURKEY · Report · 03 Feb 2025

Consumer prices rose by 5%, m/m, in January, significantly above the consensus forecast of about 4.3%. But thanks to a strong base effect from last January, the 12-month rate nevertheless fell further to 42.1%, from 44.4% in December. Monthly domestic PPI inflation was also relatively elevated, p...

Amid rising political tensions, economy holding up – for now
TURKEY · Report · 02 Feb 2025

The Erdogan-Bahceli regime launched a new crackdown, which spares no victims. These range from the CEO of a casting agency to party leaders. The politics author fails to find an overarching theme that ties the victims together, but if silencing every voice that opposes it will be the modus operan...

Perú: Cabinet Reshuffle
PERU · In Brief · 01 Feb 2025 · 1 response

Last night, President Boluarte reshuffled her Cabinet and changed three ministers: Minister of Finance, José Arista; Minister of Social Inclusion, Julio Demartini; and Women and Vulnerable Population, Teresa Hernández. For weeks have been rumors of a reshuffle, and most anticipated that Interior ...

Essential CIS Politics: February 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 31 Jan 2025

- Russia signs strategic partnership with Iran, as rumors of an Opec-style gas cartel become more realistic. - Trump scales up threats of sanctions and tariffs if peace negotiations do not progress. - Armenia begins the EU accession process. - Lukashenko wins a 7th term in ...

GULF WEEKLY: Strong Q4 Saudi GDP, Dubai-AD rail link, Oman income tax debated, Trump proposes Gaza relocation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Jan 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil prices declined for a second week, but the premium of Gulf crude over Brent is at a record $2. * Rystad forecasts the share of renewables in GCC electricity to surge from 3% to 70% by 2050. * The Saudi Q4 flash GDP re...

The Central Bank Pauses the Monetary Policy Interest Rate Reduction Cycle
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 31 Jan 2025

At its monetary policy meeting in January 2025, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) decided to maintain its monetary policy interest rate (MPR) at 5.75% per annum. Similarly, the rate for the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day Repos) remains at 6.25% per annum, while the ...

Kazakhstan macro: government considering reform agenda amid overspending and fiscal difficulties
KAZAKHSTAN · Forecast · 31 Jan 2025 · 1 response

The Kazakh Ministry of Finance recently released the budgetary statistics for full-year 2024. The figures didn’t look impressive, either for the republican budget or the National Fund, because their revenues strongly depend on the exchange rate. Local budgets, however, performed very well because...

2024 Budget well executed
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Jan 2025

The Indonesian Ministry of Finance reported the performance of Indonesian Government Budget for the year 2024. The budget had faced a huge challenge due to the volatility of commodity prices, the general election and the transition to the new presidency. However, the Ministry of Finance reported ...

Lula gave an interview yesterday, the elections for the presidencies of the House and Senate will be held tomorrow, and Congress will resume activity next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Jan 2025

President Lula gave a lengthy interview to journalists yesterday afternoon. He said he intends to make these meetings more frequent. One of the questions he was asked was about the possibility of new fiscal measures. Lula said that nothing is currently on the radar. This Saturday, elections will...

Jan CCA Highlights: Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia keep rates unchanged, Georgia's 2024 GDP soars to 9.5%, FX reserves reach record-high level in Uzbekistan
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 31 Jan 2025

We discuss key macro and political events in the CCA during Jan: Armenia: Armenia plans to issue new Eurobonds in 2025 Armenia: Monthly economic indicator rises by 4.7% YoY in Dec Armenia: 2025 public debt payments to exceed US$2.4bn Armenia: CPI increases to 1.5% YoY in Dec Armenia: FX re...

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