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Expect falling headline inflation data for August tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Sep 2024

KSH is set to publish its CPI-inflation data for August tomorrow. Essentially everyone expects that the headline rate will move downwards from July's actual 4.1% yoy. The MNB, as we reported earlier, predicted 3.4% yoy in its Q2 inflation report (true, that forecast also included 3.8% yoy for Jul...

Ukraine engages in government reshuffle amidst Russian advance in Donbass
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Sep 2024

On September 4, Zelensky reshuffled his cabinet. Many ministers resigned pre-emptively. The move came amidst rumors that a reshuffle was imminent, so members of the government were prepared. That day, the head of the ruling Servant of the People Party, David Arakhamia, wrote on Telegram that over...

Eventful days ahead
TURKEY · Report · 08 Sep 2024

In a brief X post, President Erdogan pledged full support for the newly revised Medium-Term Program (MTP), indirectly expressing his trust in Minister Simsek, which ought to quell rumors about his resignation. CHP’s Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu believes he will soon be banned from politics. I...

The STF suspended the ruling on the Reintegra program, Bolsonaro will hold a demonstration in São Paulo, and the House will hold a week of concentrated voting efforts next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Sep 2024

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) has suspended the ruling on Reintegra, a federal program aimed at returning part of the accumulated tax residues from the production of goods for export. Before the suspension, Justice Gilmar Mendes cast a vote to uphold the rule that allows the Executive Branch to...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ delays taper, UAE revises up 2023 fiscal surplus, Bahrain taxes multinationals, Adnoc and PIF issue bonds
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Sep 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ delayed tapering, cutting Q4 output by 450k b/d, as oil dipped to the lowest in over a year. * PMIs rebounded in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but Kuwait’s fell into contraction. * The IMF’s Saudi Article IV revi...

Russian Macro: GDP Growth to Slow: Aftermath of Overheating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Sep 2024

A month ago, in the aftermath of the its key rate hike decision, the CBR warned that the Russian economy is operating at full capacity and the demand is overheated by domestic credit and generous budgetary spending. Hence, inflation was high and accelerating. Therefore, some decisive action was r...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgian economy firing on all cylinders
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Sep 2024

The Georgian economy has posted a very impressive 9.7 percent GDP growth over the first seven months of the year (YoY), rendering it the fastest-growing economy in the CCA space. Fast-declining inflation has helped generate high real wage growth and, consequently, robust consumption spending. Low...

Industry and retail sales figures for July: neither good, nor bad
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Sep 2024

Industrial output and retail sales have just been reported by KSH for July. Both were completely unchanged during the month (changing by 0.0% mom in volume terms, seasonally and day-adjusted). For industry, this meant -6.4 yoy, following -3.5% yoy in Q2 (-3% yoy for H1 in total). For retail sales...

Further improvement in South Africa’s terms of trade leads to the narrowing of the current account deficit
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Sep 2024

A welcome economic metric for South Africa came out today as data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) indicates that the deficit on the country’s current account of the balance of payments narrowed markedly in the second quarter of 2024. The deficit on the current account declined f...

China’s circling of the wagons financial strategy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 Sep 2024

China’s bond market has been on a tear recently. Chinese banks, including both rural and city, along with the big national state banks, have been significantly increasing their purchases of central government bonds, leading to the rare event of 10-year and 30-year bonds trading below the central ...

MTP 2025-27: A few quick reactions
TURKEY · Report · 05 Sep 2024

Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz, together with Treasury and Finance Minister Simsek and CBRT Governor Karahan, announced the Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2025-27 this morning. As shown in Table 1 below, compared to last year’s MTP, the revised MTP sees somewhat slower growth and faster inflation, a...

The Senate approved a tax incentive bill for the green hydrogen sector, Pacheco said Galípolo’s appointment will be put to a vote by October 8, and the STF said energy distributors must issue tariff discounts
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Sep 2024

Yesterday, the Senate approved a bill that guarantees tax incentives for the green hydrogen sector. The proposal includes sections vetoed by President Lula in the sanctioning of the green hydrogen bill passed by Congress earlier this year. According to Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), G...

The Cabinet Reshuffle: Changing the Terms Doesn’t Change the Outcome
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Sep 2024

There’s a lot of noise about changes in the Cabinet. For external observers, this might look like an effort to refresh the team of Ministers. But in fact, it’s not. Some faces from the same tired deck of cards have simply moved from old positions to new ones. Others, like the Minister of Foreign ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Sep 2024

Aug 22 OPEC+: The OPEC has received updated compensation plans from Kazakhstan for the 7M24 over-production of oil volumes, which totaled about 1 699K bpd. KMG: The company and Chinese CNPC intend to launch urea production at the Zhanazholsky gas processing plant worth $1.5 bln. KMG: The company ...

Let’s not celebrate growth results just yet
COLOMBIA · Report · 04 Sep 2024

Economic activity data showing 2.1% real growth in Q2 2024 over Q2 2023 suggests that the economy might be changing gears, and accelerating, from its meager 0.8% growth in Q1. Key sectors that have been clear laggards, such as construction and commerce, are finally moving into positive territory....

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