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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Oct 28 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Oct 29
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Chile databank Oct 29
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Oct 1
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Dominican Republic databank Oct 21
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Oct 24
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Hungary databank Oct 17
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Oct 21
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Sep 29
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Philippines databank Oct 8
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Poland databank Sep 29
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Russia Economics databank Oct 16
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South Africa databank Oct 3
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Turkey databank Oct 27
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Oct 6
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - NAVIGATING AN OIL GLUT: FISCAL AND RATING RISKS FOR ...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Selic, default, and consumption: what to expect?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jul 2025
Consumption shows signs of slowing down in the second quarter, indicating that contractionary monetary policy is possibly already taking effect. The increase in the interest rate occurs in a scenario of high household indebtedness, which should exert additional pressure on default rates. Our ...
The government continues to negotiate countermeasures to Trump’s tariffs, Brazilian senators will meet with U.S. lawmakers today, and the Central Bank’s Copom meets today to discuss the benchmark interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jul 2025
A contingency plan prepared by the Ministries of Finance, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC), and Foreign Affairs was presented yesterday to President Lula in an effort to mitigate the impact of the sweeping U.S. tariffs on Brazilian exports, scheduled to take effect on Friday. Sources within th...
Tariffs, secondary tariffs and Q2 GDP
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Jul 2025
The preliminary Q2 GDP data is due tomorrow. Following -0.2% qoq, -0.4% yoy in Q1, Portfolio.hu's analyst poll shows a median forecast of 0.2% qoq, 0% yoy for Q2, with 0.7% average growth for this year and 2.7% growth for 2026. A short while ago, our quarterly forecast update included a slightly ...
Intel to close Costa Rica assembly plant: a wake-up call for a high-value investment strategy
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 28 Jul 2025
Last week, semiconductor giant Intel announced it will shut down its assembly and testing operations in Costa Rica, relocating them in Malaysia and Vietnam. The move represents a significant setback for the country, given Intel’s outsized role in boosting service export figures. Prior to the comp...
A New Era?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jul 2025
The events of July 18, 2025 mark an important milestone in U.S.–Venezuela relations. Maximum pressure has given way to pragmatic understanding. The events of that day demonstrate that communication channels between the two governments are working, such that a complex and delicate negotiation ...
Politics: Violence and homicides—how are they measured and how much progress has been made?
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jul 2025
Public security is the number one issue for most Mexicans, and addressing, improving and resolving this issue is of key importance for the current presidential administration. In fact, it is the policy question in which President Sheinbaum has most clearly—although not explicitly—differentiated h...
Brazil vs. the US and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jul 2025
On Friday, August 1, a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports to the United States is scheduled to take effect. There is widespread anticipation regarding the measures the Brazilian government will announce in response. The Ministry of Industry, Trade, and Services will hold daily press briefings throug...
Economics: The data released in July shows the economy remains stagnant
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jul 2025
The IGAE for May showed a 0.4% yoy uptick but on average, from January to May 2025, the Mexican economy showed no growth. The public finance report for that same month shows some apparent strength thanks to robust income tax and VAT collections alongside spending and debt reductions. However, the...
Trump’s tariffs are set to take effect this Friday, the government is preparing a series of countermeasures in response, and the Central Bank will meet this week to decide on the benchmark interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jul 2025
A 50% tariff on Brazilian exports to the United States is scheduled to take effect on Friday, August 1. Negotiations between the two countries have been tense and have shown little progress. Brazil’s Ministries of Finance, Industry and Trade, and Foreign Affairs are preparing a set of countermeas...
The CBR cut the key rate by 200 bps as inflation subsides
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Jul 2025
On July 25, the CBR’s Board of Directors cut the key rate by 200 bps to 18% and announced it expects the policy rate to average 18.8-19.6% this year. Therefore, the regulator hinted at another 200 bps cut, most likely in September, as August will likely be deflationary. The CBR sees inflationary ...
CBRT cuts, Moody’s upgrades, politicians dither
TURKEY · Report · 27 Jul 2025 · 1 response
With few neurons firing during an excruciating heatwave, the politics author cuts his essays short, saving his energy for the upcoming quarterly/forecast report. Frankly, with everything being in the air, there is not much to report home, except to say, “this looks like a pregnant pause”. He expe...
GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait’s deficit narrows, Qatar bids for Olympics, UAE companies invest in Saudi, France will recognize Palestine
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Jul 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * UAE-Saudi cooperation: Al-Futtaim invests in Cenomi and Air Arabia partners for a Dammam airline. * Deals worth $6bn were signed at the Saudi-Syrian investment forum in Damascus. * Dubai saw record home sales in Q2, and S...
NBU holds rate at 15.5% as poor crop outlook fuels inflation risks
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Jul 2025
On July 24th, yesterday, the NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15.5% for the third consecutive time. Concerns about the 2025 crop outlook are among the key reasons behind this decision. Wheat yields are expected to be about 5% lower than last year, and projections for other crops are als...
Brazil is showing the first signs of negotiations with the U.S., a congressional committee on the issue is expected to begin its agenda next week, and Justice Moraes ruled that Bolsonaro is allowed to give interviews
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jul 2025
The Brazilian government is showing the first signs that it has established a line of communication with the United States regarding the tariffs announced by Trump. Yesterday, Vice President and Minister of Industry and Trade Geraldo Alckmin said he had a long phone conversation with U.S. Commerc...
Replay and Slide Presentation: Political Passions in the South Caucasus
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Presentation · 25 Jul 2025
Is Georgian Dream in the driving seat in the runup to the local elections in October? Why is Armenian PM Pashinyan taking a gamble attacking the Church and what does it have to do with the June 2026 Parliamentary Elections? CCA currencies are in a sweet spot, but for how long? Get insight into...