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Politics: As challenges grow and the economy weakens, Sheinbaum is at a crossroads
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2024

While Claudia Sheinbaum is basking in high approval ratings, signs point to potential problems ahead that could spell trouble. In her first 100 days in office, the new President has concentrated on getting legislative approval for AMLO’s constitutional amendments, chief among them the Judicial...

Guevara’s headaches
COLOMBIA · Report · 23 Dec 2024 · 1 response

The 2024 congressional sessions didn’t end well for the government. First and foremost, Congress sank the mini-tax reform, the Ley de Financiamiento. President Gustavo Petro reacted badly to this, announcing that “the budget crisis will not be paid for by the people,” and promising to: 1) explore...

Robust CA surplus and FDI remain shekel supportive
ISRAEL · Report · 23 Dec 2024

1. Both the current account surplus and FDI remained robust in Q3, supportive of the shekel. 2. Residential investments increased in Q3, but completions are still below the current demand. 3. We maintain our forecast of 2.4% inflation NTM (lower end of consensus), and three rate cuts in 2...

External fundamentals remain robust and shekel supportive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Dec 2024

Geopolitics: Israel’s geopolitical situation has greatly improved, following the ceasefire in Lebanon (still holding), the end of the Assad regime (breaking the flow of armaments from Iran to Hezbollah), and the weakening of Iran in the region (having lost an important ally in Syria). Nevertheles...

Upside down
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Dec 2024

In recent weeks, suspicions that we are operating under a fiscal dominance regime, or very close to it, have surfaced. However, we still do not believe this to be the case, despite monetary policy weakening in face of fiscal policy mismanagement, which has rapidly increased the costs of disinflat...

Bracing for Trump, after a reasonable 2024
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 20 Dec 2024

In Costa Rica, political confrontation between the Executive branch and Congress and the Judiciary persists. President Rodrigo Chaves’ style, which resembles that of other authoritarian and populist presidents in this hemisphere, also shares with those leaders’ popularity in the polls. Consequenc...

A prelude to 2025
TURKEY · Report · 20 Dec 2024 · 1 response

For Turkey, the sudden regime change in Syria promises to be the primary source of uncertainty in 2025. The politics author predicts short term damage but magnificent mid- and long-term gains, where mid-term is defined as at least a year. Achieving the long sought after objective of completely di...

BSP's Less Restrictive Monetary Policy to Remain Data-Driven
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 20 Dec 2024

As we indicated in two broadcast interviews on the next move of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) the other day, the Philippines’ monetary authority was likely to sustain its less restrictive monetary policy. And yesterday, the BSP adhered to such monetary stance and reduced by 25 basis point...

The House approved the fiscal package, the Senate may vote on the BPC and Bolsa Família programs, and this is our final daily report of the year
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Dec 2024

Yesterday, the Lower House concluded voting on the fiscal package. The deputies voted on the two remaining proposals in the package. Today, the expectation is that the Senate will finish voting on the bill regarding the BPC and Bolsa Família programs. This will be our final daily report of the ye...

GULF WEEKLY: Fitch turns positive on Oman, CI upgrades KSA, Gulf states cut interest rates, Dubai awards metro expansion
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Dec 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states mainly cut rates by -25bp, but Kuwait held steady, and Qatar cut by an extra -5bp. * An IMF policy report for the GCC recommended fiscal consolidation and structural reforms. * GCC debt capital markets crossed...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Q&A on 2024 Uzbekistan macro
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Dec 2024

In 2024, Uzbekistan's economy continued to grow at a pace comparable to previous years. GDP grew by 6.6% over Jan-Sep. In 11 months, accumulated inflation has risen to 8.7%, which is higher than the same indicator in 2023. Annual (YoY) inflation has exceeded 10%. At the end of the year, the Centr...

China's weak hand
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 Dec 2024

China’s economy is likely performing worse than the official data suggests, including in both the private and state sector. For structural reasons, any stimulus is likely to be ineffective. Given the weak economic data points, along with the difficult trade environment among China’s main customer...

Kazakhstan macro: The tenge is searching for equilibrium but the journey is not over yet
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 19 Dec 2024

The Kazakh economy performed well in November, as the short-term indicator grew y-o-y by 5.6% in 11M24. Agriculture (up by 13.4%), construction (up by 10.3%), and retail sales (up by 9.3%) were the fastest-growing segments (all figures are y-o-y). Meanwhile, in November alone, retail sales increa...

Congress approved the Budget Guidelines Law, the House approved the edits to the fiscal package, and the Senate may analyze the fiscal package today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Dec 2024

Yesterday, the National Congress approved the 2025 Budget Guidelines Law. The text maintained the fiscal target of a zero deficit for 2025, with a tolerance margin of 0.25% of GDP. Regarding the package, yesterday the House concluded the edits to the supplementary bill (PLP) for the fiscal packag...

In bad need of a fuse
PHILIPPINES · Report · 19 Dec 2024

With the impeachment complaints having been filed against the Philippines' Vice President Sara Duterte, it is expected of Congress, in exercising its power of impeachment, to investigate the issues of public concern not only because the matters in question put forward involve issues of governance...

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