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TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CA positions firm up in CCA in 3Q24
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 10 Jan 2025

The 3Q24 data for our CCA economies, which was published late last year, shows that the regional current account position has continued to improve, although it remains in deficit. In particular, the CA deficit ex-Azerbaijan has come in at 1.7 percent of GDP vs 2.0 percent of GDP in 2Q and 3.1 per...

Fresh polls: sentiments on territorial concessions evolve amid peace deal discourse
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Jan 2025

The world is abuzz with discussions about President-elect Donald Trump's territorial claims on Greenland and Canada. Meanwhile, I’d like to share some new poll results reflecting Ukrainian sentiments, which seem particularly significant as we approach the upcoming negotiations after January 20. F...

Favourable preliminary fiscal data for full-year 2024
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jan 2025

The Economy Ministry, which the former Finance Ministry has been merged into since the start of January, issued their first preliminary estimate of full-year 2024 fiscal balances this morning. The cash deficit of the central government came out at HUF4096bn or 5.0% of GDP, much higher than the or...

2025 Economic Outlook: Better than last year, but not out of the woods yet
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 07 Jan 2025

This report, the first of the year, outlines the macroeconomic forecasts for 2025 that I consider more important. Naturally, these forecasts may change significantly as reality unfolds because there are many uncertainties lingering regarding the economy, particularly those related to the midterm ...

Economic growth remains decent in 11M24, set to decelerate in 2025
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Jan 2025

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) grew y-o-y by 4.6% and 3.7% in 11M24 and November alone. Economic growth expectedly decelerates, though in 2025 it may still be higher than in 2023, but below 4.0%. In 9M24,...

A somewhat hawkish hold by the MPC
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Jan 2025

A somewhat hawkish hold by the MPC There were no real surprises in the rate (hold) decision, but the announcement was more hawkish than we had expected. The same inflationary risks were copy/pasted from the last decision: ”there are several risks for a possible acceleration of inflation: geopolit...

A train with waste paper: Zelenskiy speaks plainly on security guarantees in Lex Fridman interview
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Jan 2025

Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s interview with Lex Fridman is in the spotlight. The Ukrainian president may have his flaws, but there’s no denying his exceptional communication skills. His conversation with Lex Fridman was a significant media effort aimed at engaging Western audiences. Even after three yea...

A dovish “hold” expected today
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Jan 2025

1. We expect a rate-hold decision today, with a more dovish bias. 2. Business sector optimism improved sharply in December. 3. Private consumption has been robust into year-end in anticipation of higher taxation.

A dovish "hold" expected today (Monday)
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Jan 2025

Geopolitics: The Lebanese border remains calm while Israel has neutralized military capabilities in Syria (recently a precise missile production factory). Periodic ballistic missiles fired from Yemen have been shot down before entering Israel. The Israeli negotiating team returned to Qatar in ord...

Time flies, nothing changes in Neverland
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jan 2025 · 1 response

In 2025, the ultimate goal of Messrs. Erdogan and Bahceli remains to secure eligibility for the former for a third run at presidency, while the main opposition party CHP will deploy full-court press for early elections. The reigning Republic Alliance is currently forcing the constitutional change...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman achieves 2024 fiscal surplus, KSA's current account falls into deficit, and Q3 non-oil GDP accelerates in Qatar and Abu Dhabi but contracts in Kuwait
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jan 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude has rebounded to $76, the highest since October, on hopes of stimulus. * Qatar, Kuwait and Oman all announced plans for 15% top-up taxes on large multinationals. * The Saudi current account fell into deficit i...

Trend reversal or just a respite?
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2025 · 1 response

December CPI-inflation surprised on the downside by coming in at 1%, visibly lower than market expectations – including ours -- of around 1.6%. At 44.4%, 12-month CPI inflation hence ended the year closer to the CBRT’s mid-point forecast of 44% in the November Inflation report, versus the consens...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgian authorities score an important symbolic victory
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 03 Jan 2025

The year starts exactly as it ended, with Georgia occupying our minds, as the outgoing President surrendered much more easily than anticipated despite promising to offer stiffer resistance to those (Georgian Dream) who were barely hiding their desire to see her gone, and the new President was ina...

Ukrainian gas transit agreement expired yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Jan 2025 · 1 response

A Happy New Year to all Readers! The 5-year gas transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia expired yesterday, without any extension or replacement, because of Ukraine's reluctance to continue. In principle, this means that from now on, no Russian gas shipments will be transited towards Europe t...

Essential CIS Politics: January 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 31 Dec 2024

- Moscow and Kyiv exchange prisoners ahead of the new year as rumors of negotiations of a ceasefire spread. - Russia is suspected of sabotaging the Finnish-Estonian energy interconnection. - Protests continue in Georgia amidst the inauguration of a new president and the refusal of former Pre...

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