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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Nov 7 -
Brazil Economics databank Nov 15
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Central America databank Oct 31
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Chile databank Oct 23
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 6
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 20
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 22
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Hungary databank Nov 21
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India databank Oct 30
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Mexico databank Nov 15
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Oct 15
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Philippines databank Nov 8
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Russia Economics databank Nov 13
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South Africa databank Nov 1
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Turkey databank Sep 18
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Ukraine databank Nov 12
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Venezuela databank Nov 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA IN 2025: HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE?...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
What is happening with China’s long-dated government bonds?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Aug 2024
Special points to highlight in this report: * July’s data continues to indicate a sluggish economy, but it is important to add that even as overall growth is slowing, the quality of growth is also deteriorating. As I see it, “high quality” growth in China is the share of growth driven mainly ...
Justice Dino suspended the mandatory fund transfers to deputies and senators, the Senate approved the state debt renegotiation bill, and today is the deadline for registering candidates for the municipal elections
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Aug 2024
Yesterday, Justice Flávio Dino ordered the suspension of mandatory fund transfers to deputies and senators until the National Congress establishes rules that provide greater transparency and traceability for the transfer of resources. This decision sparked reactions in the Lower House. The Senate...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Aug 2024
The FX market demonstrated high volatility last week. Despite the extension of the OFAC license for MOEX, many international institutions cut relationships with the latter before August 13 (the deadline for the initial license). As a result, the spread between the exchange rate for CNY/USD on the...
Slower growth unlikely to imply more rate cuts
HUNGARY · Report · 14 Aug 2024
We thought a few times in the past that relations between PM Orbán and the EU mainstream could hardly be worse than they actually were. But the most recent events suggest we were wrong on all of these occasions. One problem is that Hungary’s six-month rotating presidency within the EU seems to ha...
The opposition is calling for the impeachment of Justice Alexandre de Moraes, the House approved the second Tax Reform regulation bill, and the Senate is expected to analyze three important bills
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Aug 2024
According to a report by Folha de São Paulo, Justice Alexandre de Moraes's office at the Supreme Federal Court (STF) unofficially ordered the elaboration of reports by the Electoral Court to support Moraes’s decisions against Bolsonaro supporters in the fake news investigation at the STF during a...
We see more volatility and more risks
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Aug 2024
We have revised our inflation and exchange rate projections down for this year. We keep our projections for 2025 while we reassess the development of the political crisis that surfaced with the July 28 elections. We think the government will stay its economic policy course, aimed at reducing i...
The current account turns slightly negative in July, GDP growth slows in 1H24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Aug 2024
The Central bank reported that the Current account surplus amounted to $39.7 bln, i.e., slightly lower than in 1H24 as in July alone, it turned slightly negative (-$0.5 bln). It looks as though the fluctuation in oil prices was the main reason for that (apart from a few other factors). At the beg...
Fitch lowers Israel's rating, trade data points to expansion
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Aug 2024
Fitch lowered Israel’s sovereign rating from A+ negative outlook to A with a negative outlook. The main rationale is the elevated geopolitical risks including prolonged warfare into 2025 and possibly an escalation on other fronts. Fitch expects the fiscal deficit to reach 7.8% this year and 4.6% ...
BSP: Listening to the sirens' song this week?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 13 Aug 2024
In our view, the BSP was right in its decision to keep its policy rates steady despite the preponderance of downside risks to inflation at its June 2024 policy meeting. If the BSP had eased monetary policy two months ago, its decision would have been awkward in the face of the 4.4% July inflation...
The environmental career public servants ended their strike, the House approved an urgent status request for the IBS Management Committee bill, and the Senate’s CAE holds a public hearing on Tax Reform regulation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Aug 2024
The environmental career public servants (Ibama, ICMBio, MMA) officially accepted the government's proposal yesterday and ended their strike. As of today (August 13), all employees will return to work. Yesterday, the House approved an urgent status request for the bill that regulates the IBS Mana...
Economics: Pemex’s financial situation continued to deteriorate through the second quarter
MEXICO · Report · 13 Aug 2024
Pemex's latest financial results, the last we can expect from current management, were rolled out with the CEO's customary optimistic flair even as the report shows a profound deterioration of its indicators through the first half of 2024, after recording systematic reductions in the company's de...
Negotiation of state debt will yield political dividends and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Aug 2024
This will be a busy week in Brasília. Both the House and the Senate will engage in a week of concentrated voting efforts. Deputies may analyze the second bill that deals with the Tax Reform (Management Committee). Roberto Campos Neto will participate in a hearing in the House. Senators will try t...
China’s report card
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Aug 2024
In the first half of 2024 China faced significant challenges and some important decisions. How did it do? Here, we provide a quick report card on China’s successes and failures in navigating a difficult environment.
The Gap Between Intention and Action
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Aug 2024
The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) minutes state that the Central Bank is prepared to hike interest rates if necessary to meet the inflation target. However, the path of interest rates in light of deteriorating expectations, the increase in the neutral real interest rate estimate, and a tighte...
Politics: Sheinbaum shackled by the long shadow of AMLO’s legacy
MEXICO · Report · 12 Aug 2024
A complex yet muted political drama is playing out with less than two months to go before Claudia Sheinbaum becomes president. As with any incoming executive, her prospects for tackling the biggest and most pressing problems facing the country will depend on her ability to define her own agenda, ...