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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

No sterilisation rate cut in August, for the first time since April 2023
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Aug 2024

The Monetary Council held the MNB base rate at 6.75% at today's regular monthly rate-setting meeting: This was largely as expected: the majority of analysts, including us, predicted this outcome. However, the expectation of no rate change this month was not unanimous, as some analysts predicted a...

Justice Mendes suspended the trial on the inclusion of pension plans in the incidence of the ITCMD tax, the House should conclude voting on the Tax Reform bill, and the CAE will hold a public hearing on Tax Reform today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Aug 2024

Yesterday, Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Gilmar Mendes requested a review and suspended the trial discussing whether the Inheritance and Donation Tax (ITCMD) applies to the transfer of private pension plan funds upon the death of the account holder. Before the suspension, the vote stood at ...

Economics: Revised second quarter GDP and June IGAE reflect a deepening downtrend
MEXICO · Report · 27 Aug 2024

Revised second quarter GDP figures were released late last week that include a more complete statistical breakdown by sector and branches and a slight downward adjustment from the 1.1% yoy seasonally adjusted growth figures to a revised 1.0% increase. The downward revision is probably due to the ...

Immune to everything?
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Aug 2024

The Supreme Court of Justice has validated the results of Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election that had been announced by the National Electoral Council. The formality was carried out amidst a wave of harsh repression that sent the message that those in the upper echelons of government have ...

Quo Vadis, Mehmet?
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Aug 2024 · 2 responses

I was detoxing my brain from the filth of Turkish politics in the Aegean resort town Ayvalik, Balikesir, when rumors of Mehmet Simsek’s resignation hit the media, like a sucker punch to the jowl. It took me some time to get my bearings together and make sense of the whole mess, but no worries, De...

A temporary truce in the fund transfer crisis and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Aug 2024

The House may conclude the vote on the second Tax Reform regulation bill (regarding the Management Committee). The payroll tax relief bill should be submitted to the House. The government submits the 2025 Federal Budget to Congress, proposing an increase in the CSLL and JCP. On August 30, the fre...

Did the Bank of Jamaica wait too long to cut interest rates? Finance Minister Nigel Clarke moves to IMF at the end of October. Was he the best Finance Minister in the Western Hemisphere?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 26 Aug 2024

At its monetary policy committee (MPC) meetings on the 16th and 19th of August, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) unanimously agreed to reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%, effective Wednesday, August 21, 2024. This was the first cut since it began its tightening cycle in 2022, when it rai...

Politics: Private sector, foreign governments raise concerns of an authoritarian regression from "Plan C" constitutional reforms
MEXICO · Report · 26 Aug 2024

Financial markets reacted negatively to the incumbent coalition’s sweeping election victory June 2, but thanks in part to Claudia Sheinbaum's moving quickly to reassure investors, the turbulence subsided. Even as opinion writers and analysts engaged in considerable debate over whether the electio...

An Unpleasant Regression
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Aug 2024

We have long warned about economic activity exceeding its potential, as evident when we look at the unemployment rate, which is at its lowest level in nearly ten years. Here, we complement this by analyzing the behavior of capacity utilization (NUCI), suggesting that pressure on production also a...

The government will submit the 2025 budget proposal this week, the House will continue voting on the second tax reform regulation bill this week, and electoral campaigns can begin on TV and radio this Friday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Aug 2024

This week, the government will send the 2025 budget proposal to Congress. The rapporteur will be Senator Angelo Coronel (PSD-BA). Before being put to a vote in the plenary of Congress, the text will be debated in the Joint Budget Committee. The House will continue this week with the voting on the...

No cut in sight with risks still elevated
ISRAEL · Report · 26 Aug 2024

1. Renewed optimism regarding a possible ceasefire and Israel’s successful operation in Lebanon supported markets yesterday. 2. The labor market continues to tighten, supportive of wage/inflationary pressure. 3. We expect a more hawkish tone (as well as a rate-hold decision) this week, stre...

Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) remittances: a continuing mitigant in the Philippine economy
PHILIPPINES · Report · 26 Aug 2024

It should be obvious by now that there is no territory in the world where there is no Filipino worker. Globalization has made the world a smaller place to live and work. This is also true for Filipino workers who go abroad on contract or as migrant workers. Diversified across the globe, OFW remit...

Mulino faces five challenges over the next eighteen months. Chapman taps the local market. The principle of specialty that Martinelli is pursuing may be a formidable obstacle to the path of reforms
PANAMA · Report · 26 Aug 2024 · 1 response

The Mulino administration has inherited five critical challenges that impact the future of the country's public finances and the economy as whole: 1) the revision of the sub-system of defined benefits of the state pension program; 2) a tax reform; 3) the decision about the copper mining project, ...

No rate cuts in sight as inflation risks remain elevated
ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 Aug 2024

Geopolitics: There is a renewed optimism in the negotiations regarding a ceasefire/hostage deal, with Hamas sending representatives to Cairo. Following Israel’s pre-emptive strike on some 100 missile launchers in Lebanon poised to fire missiles towards the center of Israel, there is general satis...

Once more on the Lukoil sanction case: much ado about nothing (or very little at most)
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Aug 2024

The first news on the Ukrainian government sanctioning Lukoil's transit shipments of Russian crude oil and oil products to Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia, through the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline that crosses the territory of Ukraine, around mid-July sounded quite dramatic. Then a serie...

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