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The Unbearable Lightness of GDP
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Sep 2024

Once again, GDP has surprised on the upside, recording a seasonally adjusted expansion of 1.4% (against 0.9% expected) in the second quarter of the year compared to the first quarter, which was revised from 0.8% to 1.0%. Compared to the second quarter of 2023, GDP grew by 3.3%, also surpassing th...

The president of the Republicanos party has withdrawn from the succession race in the Lower House, Galípolo’s confirmation hearing will likely take place after the Copom meeting, and the OAB calls for a review of the X case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Sep 2024

The president of the Republicanos party, Marcos Pereira, has withdrawn from running to succeed Arthur Lira as president of the Lower House. He has instead decided to support the pre-candidacy of Hugo Motta (PB), also from the Republicanos. The confirmation hearing for Gabriel Galípolo in the Econ...

South Africa’s economy registers moderate growth in Q2-2024, while electricity supply is more solid with over 5 months of no load-shedding
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 03 Sep 2024

South Africa’s quarter-on-quarter real GDP expanded by 0.4% during the second quarter of 2024. This was following the first quarter’s no change in GDP (i.e. GDP growth rate of 0.0%, which was upwardly adjusted from -0.1%). On account of the weak quarterly growth rates, real GDP in the first half ...

Déjà-vu
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Sep 2024

The federal government has submitted the Annual Budget Bill (PLOA) for 2025 to Congress, forecasting a primary deficit of R$ 40.4 billion (0.3% of GDP), which, once R$ 44.1 billion in court-ordered debt payments for next year are subtracted, would translate into a small surplus of R$ 3.7 billion,...

The IBGE releases the GDP result for the second quarter of the year and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Sep 2024

On Tuesday (September 3), the IBGE will release the GDP result for the second quarter of the year. In the first quarter, GDP grew by 0.8%. Former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has called for a demonstration in São Paulo on September 7, Independence Day. Even with the informal recess in the Nati...

No tangible gains yet, it seems
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2024

Consumer prices rose by 2.5% in August, broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month rate declining sharply as anticipated to 52%, down from 61.8% in July, on the back of powerful base effects. Domestic-PPI inflation was 1.7%, m/m, which reduced the 12-month rate to 35.8% from 41.4% a mon...

Senate leaders will meet to set the date for Galípolo’s confirmation hearing, Minister Tebet should present the 2025 Budget proposal to Pacheco, and Lira continues the search for his candidate in the House succession
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Sep 2024

Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) and the President of the Senate's Economic Affairs Committee (CAE), Vanderlan Cardoso (PSD-GO), are expected to meet today to discuss the date for Gabriel Galípolo's confirmation hearing, who has been appointed by President Lula to the presidency of the C...

Q2 GDP data is not quite as poor as it looks at first glance
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Sep 2024

Detailed GDP data for Q2 2024 is out today. The preliminary report of -0.2% qoq, 1.3% yoy growth (or the lack of it) has not changed. So clearly, the recovery seen in Q1 did not continue, which has proven to be a reason for a great deal of disappointment within the government and also in the priv...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Sep 2024

OVERVIEW THE RIGHT STUFF VERSUS THE EASY STUFF The highlight of the month was the relatively fast change in the pricing of monetary policy. Partly due to the harsh language expressed in the July Copom minutes and partly because of statements from members of the Board of Directors (notably ...

Economics: August indicators confirm significant deceleration, Pemex deterioration and risky monetary stance
MEXICO · Report · 03 Sep 2024

Economic activity continued to slow in recent months as evidenced by a slight downward revision of second quarter GDP results, the onset of a weakening trend that could worsen should potential risks on both the external and internal fronts materialize. The greatest threat domestically involve...

Politics: Morena consolidates congressional majority in push to rush through sweeping reforms in first days of new Congress
MEXICO · Report · 03 Sep 2024

Late last week, the Federal Electoral Tribunal signed off on the composition of chambers of Congress previously approved by the INE, sealing a qualified majority for Morena and its allies in the Chamber of Deputies with 72.8% of the lower chamber’s seats. Although the incumbent camp was left thr...

Azerbaijan holds parliamentary elections, including for the first time in Nagorno-Karabakh
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Sep 2024

On September 1, Azerbaijan held parliamentary elections. They were originally supposed to be held in November but were brought forward due to Azerbaijan’s high-profile hosting of COP-29. This was the first Azerbaijani election to include the reclaimed territories in Nagorno-Karabakh. 42,000 Azerb...

Activity flat in Q2, broadly as expected
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Sep 2024

The Turkish economy grew by 2.5% annually in the second quarter of the year, somewhat lower than expectations, but expanded slightly over the previous quarter (0.1%), which was somewhat better than expectations – including ours -- of modest contraction (Graph 1). As usual, we focus on the sequent...

Where were we?
TURKEY · Report · 01 Sep 2024

The politics author dedicates his contribution to the first post-holiday Weekly Tracker to going over important events that transpired in August. Doubts about Simsek’s job security linger, while there is little reason to believe the soon-to-be-unveiled revised Medium Term Economic Program will co...

High hopes for Guatemala, as neighbors struggle
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Aug 2024

In Guatemala, private sector confidence has improved since President Bernardo Arevalo took office in January, and expectations within the country are high. In Bank of Guatemala surveys, most respondents said they expected the economic situation to improve in the next six months. Arevalo is workin...

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