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Webinar replay and slide presentation: Poland - Economic trends, political shifts, and the path forward
POLAND · Report · 31 Jan 2025

As part of the GlobalSource Partners' Poland research service launch, we invite you to listen to the replay of a webinar on the country's outlook featuring Jan Hagemejer, one of the world’s leading authorities on Poland’s macroeconomics, international trade and structural issues. What drives ...

Belligerence nearly tanks a critical relationship
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Jan 2025 · 2 responses

The usual friendly weekend vibe was ruined for many Colombians on Sunday, January 26th, when a dispute over Colombia’s refusal to receive a planeload of undocumented Colombians arriving from the United States broke out between U.S. President Donald Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro – th...

Playing with fire
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Jan 2025

As announced at the end of last year, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) raised the target for the benchmark interest rate to 13.25% per year and maintained its guidance for another hike of the same magnitude in the next meeting.

The South African Reserve Bank’s third consecutive rate cut amid rising uncertainties
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Jan 2025

Having convened for its first 2025 meeting this week, the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced its interest rate decision today. In line with market expectations, the MPC voted to reduce the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.5%. This marks the third...

The Copom increased the benchmark interest rate by one percentage point, Haddad announced the expansion of payroll-deductible loans, and truck drivers will meet to discuss potential diesel price increases
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jan 2025

As expected, the Central Bank raised the benchmark interest rate (Selic) by 1 percentage point, bringing it to 13.25% per year. In an effort to create a positive agenda, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT) announced the expansion of payroll-deductible loans through a new virtual platform that w...

Preliminary Q4 GDP in line with expectation, more or less
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Jan 2025

Real GDP (preliminary, seasonally and day-adjusted) grew by 0.5% qoq, 0.2% yoy in Q4 2024, implying 0.6% growth for the whole of 2024, after -0.8% in 2023. Analysts expected 0.2% growth for Q4, and the 2025 budget includes 0.8% growth for full-year 2024. Note: Real GDP growth in percent; Source: ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Jan 2025

The ruble appreciated by 3.6% since the start of the year despite the drop in oil prices. The latter resulted from the market reaction to some of Mr. Trump’s statements, which called for OPEC to lower energy prices. In our view, the main reason for the ruble to strengthen was the repatriation of ...

Anti-2025 budget group gathers force, to hold indignant rally January 31
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Jan 2025

At the end of December 2024, we wrote that the Philippines’ national budget for 2025 may not be able to achieve those lofty goals of promoting higher food production, arresting inflation, elevating the quality of education and skills training as well as public health. Despite the protestations co...

Lula met with representatives from the real estate sector, the Planalto Palace is tackling food prices, and the Copom will meet today to decide on the benchmark interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jan 2025

Yesterday, representatives from the real estate sector met with President Lula and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad. The sector presented a list of concerns, including the FGTS birthday withdrawal, the risk of taxation on Real Estate Investment Funds, and issues regarding the Minha Casa, Minha Vi...

A pension deal? Political wrinkles and potential economic impact
CHILE · Report · 28 Jan 2025

The summer break is well underway in Chile. And by the time things gear up again in March, the presidential and congressional election campaigns will be as well. Primaries, to be held at the end of June, are now less than six months away. Recall that presidential and congressional elections will ...

The Monetary Council sent out an expressly hawkish message today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Jan 2025

Just as expected, the Council took no action regarding the MNB 6.5% base rate at today's regular monthly rate-setting meeting. So, analysts, who uniformly expected a hold decision this time, have been vindicated. Until this point, this is no really interesting story, but the messages sent out by ...

Trump’s opening remarks indicate carrot-and-stick approach towards Russia-Ukraine negotiations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 28 Jan 2025

• Trump threatens Russia and “participating countries” with more sanctions, tariffs and taxes if no peace deal is reached soon. • Russia’s oil revenues will be targeted by Trump—Western sanctions against the shadow fleet are increasing costs, stalling China and India’s purchases of Russian oil...

Preparing for global challenges
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jan 2025

Costa Rica is facing fiscal challenges that require strong policy actions to ensure long-term sustainability. Progress made in previous years improved fiscal indicators. Nevertheless, for the second year in a row there has been a slight deterioration in some fiscal data. The lack of a formal agre...

The President’s disapproval rating has increased across all groups, Petrobras will meet tomorrow to discuss fuel prices, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs discussed the conditions of Brazilians deported from the US
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jan 2025

The Quaest poll published yesterday reveals concerning data for the government. The President's disapproval rating has increased across all regions, age groups, and among both men and women. In cases where disapproval remained stable, approval ratings dropped, indicating significant deterioration...

One for one … so far
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jan 2025 · 1 response

The political dynamics in Venezuela remain largely unchanged. Nicolás Maduro succeeded in being sworn in on January 10 but fell short of legitimizing his leadership. María Corina Machado bolstered her standing with a high-profile appearance at a January 9 rally that garnered extensive internation...

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