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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

"Eppur Si Muove"
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Aug 2024

Economic activity has displayed resilience in the face of the catastrophe in the South and continues to pose a challenge for inflation. Manufactures output has presented robust results since December but is subject to increasing unit labor costs, that is, real wages growing ahead of productivity,...

Politics: Implications of AMLO’s laissez-faire attitude towards cartels for security and future relations with Washington
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2024

Following last week’s discussion of President López Obrador's legacy in terms of the assets and liabilities for governance he bequeaths the next presidential administration, we are expanding our focus to the main issues on the national agenda, starting with the further erosion of the already tenu...

Political gender violence or attempt at a coup d'état?
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Aug 2024

The political saga between President Daniel Noboa and Vice President Veronica Abad has escalated to mutual accusations of gender-based political violence on the side of Abad and attempts at a coup d’état raised by the official side. The truth of the matter is that Noboa, who has a high probabilit...

President Abinader announces a broad reform agenda, as he’s sworn in for his second term
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 19 Aug 2024

During his August 16th swearing in ceremony for his second term, President Luis Abinader promised to implement a broad agenda of economic, social and political reforms that would make the Dominican Republic a developed country, with a strong democracy and a fair economy that would solve people's ...

The Senate may vote on the payroll tax relief bill this week, the House may discuss the Tax Reform regulation bill, and the STF may adjudicate cases against Labor Reform measures that established intermittent contracts
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Aug 2024

The Senate may vote this week on the bill addressing payroll tax relief. The rapporteur, Senator Jaques Wagner (PT-BA), will present a new report today, August 19. This week, the Ministry of Finance will send a study to Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM), the likely rapporteur in the Senate, detailing the im...

Inflation accelerates despite weak growth
ISRAEL · Report · 19 Aug 2024

1. Economic activity disappointed in the second quarter and is being supported by government spending and private consumption (in part also due to fiscal policy). 2. Inflation accelerated in July, both services and goods, a trend that is expected to continue. 3. All eyes are on ceasefire ne...

GDP growth disappoints as inflation accelerates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Aug 2024

Geopolitics: Negotiations continue in an attempt to reach a cease-fire. Biden sounds optimistic, while Hamas is rather doubtful. Israel continues to maneuver in Gaza and target Hezbollah in Lebanon, which retaliates with drone attacks as well. GDP growth was rather weak in the second quarter GDP ...

On the shores of Rubicon
TURKEY · Forecast · 16 Aug 2024

The Economic Stabilization Program is facing multiple external and domestic threats. While President Erdogan withstanding the pressure and giving the Treasury and Finance Minister Simsek the go-ahead for even tighter policies can certainly not be ruled out, the base-case scenario of our politics ...

GULF WEEKLY: Critical Gaza talks are underway in Qatar, OPEC revised down oil demand growth, Saudi investment law updated
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Aug 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC cut its demand growth forecast for the first time in over a year, although it’s still double the IEA’s. * Saudi Arabia revised its investment law to encourage FDI with less red tape and more investor rights. * Saudi ...

South Africa’s changing political landscape amid growth challenges
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 16 Aug 2024

• South Africa’s growth: During H1-2024, the South African economy not only continued to languish under the strain of the usual domestic headwinds—inadequate electricity supply and logistical constraints—but it also suffered under heightened uncertainty due to the then-upcoming general elections....

STF President Barroso denied the request to suspend Justice Dino’s injunction on mandatory transfers, the Senate postponed the vote on the payroll tax relief bill, and a study will be submitted on the Tax Reform bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Aug 2024

The House, the Senate, and party leaders filed an appeal yesterday to suspend the injunction issued by Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Flávio Dino, which halts the execution of all mandatory fund transfers. STF President Luis Roberto Barroso denied the request. The Senate decided to delay the...

Webinar Replay - Venezuela Political Briefing
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Aug 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the country's international standing and its economic and political outlook in the aftermath of Venezuela's pivotal 2024 presidential elections What can the international community do? Will there be room for negotiations? How could ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Is the market giving Armenia too much benefit of the doubt?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 Aug 2024

Armenia has seen a stronger compression of Eurobond yields since 2022 when compared to CCA peers. This outperformance is especially impressive when assessed against its higher-rated neighbor Georgia. What is driving this? While GDP growth over the last couple of years has been among the best i...

Decent GDP growth in July amid ongoing structural transformation and some unresolved issues
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Aug 2024 · 2 responses

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (measuring activity in six main segments of the economy) grew by 4.1% y-o-y in 7M24 (up from 3.9% y-o-y in 1H24). The services sector continued to evolve smoothly as retail sales expanded by 7.1% and 5.9% in 7M24 and July (y...

Inflation pushes higher
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Aug 2024

Inflation comes in at the high end of expectations The CPI in July was up 0.6% m/m (expectations 0.4%-0.6%), in line with our forecast. Inflation y/y increased to 3.2% from 2.9% last month. Core inflation pushed higher as well to 2.8% y/y from 2.5%, and core inflation excluding government measure...

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