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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Nov 7 -
Brazil Economics databank Nov 15
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Central America databank Oct 31
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Chile databank Oct 23
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 6
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 20
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 22
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Hungary databank Nov 21
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India databank Oct 30
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Mexico databank Nov 15
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Oct 15
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Philippines databank Nov 8
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Russia Economics databank Nov 13
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South Africa databank Nov 1
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Turkey databank Sep 18
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Ukraine databank Nov 12
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Venezuela databank Nov 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA IN 2025: HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE?...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
SA Government of National Unity (GNU): Learning to work with opposing policies and ideologies
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 12 Aug 2024
During the first quarter of government, the South African political landscape and discourses on governance and policies have changed a great deal. Eleven political parties, with the ANC as the largest with 40.2% electoral support and the DA with 21.8% as the second largest, have formed a grand co...
The House may vote on the Tax Reform regulation bill, the Senate may vote on the payroll tax exemption bill, and the CCJ may analyze the PEC on the Central Bank’s autonomy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Aug 2024
The Lower House and the Senate will hold a week of concentrated legislative sessions. The House is attempting to vote on the second bill related to the regulation of the Tax Reform this week, which deals with the Management Committee (Complementary Bill No. 108/24). The Senate may vote on the bil...
Escalation tension declines somewhat, and negotiations to be renewed
ISRAEL · Report · 12 Aug 2024
1. Renewed cautious optimism regarding a ceasefire and lack of escalation has strengthened the shekel and lowered bond spreads. 2. The fiscal deficit continues to climb higher despite robust tax revenues. 3. Business activity in July remained steady but below pre-war levels.
Fiscal accounts for the semester, Chapman’s financial proposals and their implications, Mulino’s announcements, and important appointments to come
PANAMA · Report · 12 Aug 2024 · 1 response
The fiscal accounts for the first semester, published last week, align with our projections for a Non-Financial Public Sector (NFPS) deficit close to 8% of semiannual GDP according to our estimates, reaching 3.96% of the projected GDP for the entire year. Economy and Finance Minister Felipe Chapm...
Central Asian presidents' summit
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2024
On August 8 the presidents of the five former Soviet republics met in Astana. The President of Azerbaijan was also invited even though his country is not a member of this informal Central Asian bloc. This is the sixth annual consultative meeting of the presidents. It is about cooperation. However...
Budgetary performance looks normal in July
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2024
The Ministry of Finance reported that in 7M23 total revenues of the federal budget exceeded R18.7 trln, which is about 56.3% of the annual target. Given that tax collection traditionally rises in 4Q, revenue performance looked not too bad, as increased inflation established a higher nominal tax b...
Budget deficit continues to increase despite positive tax revenues
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Aug 2024
Geopolitics: Despite the two targeted assassinations nearly two weeks ago and threat of reprisal from Iran and Hezbollah, ceasefire negotiations will be renewed on Thursday. Israel continues to operate in Gaza putting pressure on Hamas. Several Arab states are pushing Iran to respond moderately. ...
Expecting July inflation
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 11 Aug 2024
Despite the gradual liberalization of regulated prices, the government has focused on the reduction of the inflation rate as one of its most immediate and visible economic achievements. For this, it undertook, from its beginning, a demanding fiscal contraction, and a gradual elimination of the ce...
Ukraine launches its biggest ever incursion into Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2024
On August 6 Ukraine sent hundreds of troops and at least 10 tanks across the border into the Kursk Region. There have been many incursions by Ukraine since 2022 but they have all been smaller scale and most lasted only a few hours. Ukraine attacked an airbase containing some of Russia's best plan...
GULF WEEKLY: PMIs fall across the GCC, oil rebounds from an 8-month low, Bahrain revises GDP, mediators push to revive Gaza talks as the region awaits Iranian retaliation against Israel
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Aug 2024 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil has rebounded to $79, after touching an 8-month low, but the EIA cut its demand forecast. * PMIs fell across the Gulf, with Qatar down by the most, while the UAE and KSA hit multi-year lows. * Aramco’s Q2 earnings were ...
Kazakhstan macro: The tenge has weakened in recent months but still looks too strong
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 09 Aug 2024
The National Bank of Kazakhstan recently published its first estimate of the 2Q24 balance of payments, which revealed that after briefly showing a surplus in 1Q24 the current account balance once again turned red. Being negative is the more usual condition for the Kazakh current account as the in...
Next week the House may vote on the Tax Reform regulation bill, the Senate may vote on the payroll tax exemption bill, and the STF may adjudicate the appeal regarding health insurance payment increases
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Aug 2024
In the House, the highlight next week will be the attempt to vote on the second bill on Tax Reform regulation, which deals with the Management Committee. The rapporteur is Deputy Mauro Benevides Filho (PDT-CE). In the Senate, efforts continue to try to vote on the payroll tax exemption. The text ...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan's natural gas trade deficit worsens significantly in 1H24
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 09 Aug 2024
Uzbekistan transitioned into a net gas importer status in 2023. We have analyzed in detail the reasons for that phenomenon elsewhere, stressing the strong structural underpinnings of this transition, but the full trade data for the first half of the year allows us to evaluate the evolution of net...
Inflation report: a few thoughts
TURKEY · Report · 08 Aug 2024 · 1 response
The CBRT released the third Inflation Report of the year. The Bank kept the 2024 and 2025 yearend inflation forecasts unchanged at 38% (between 34% and 42%) and 14% (between 7% and 21%), respectively. The 2026 forecast is also the same as in the previous report, at 9%.
Upside CPI-inflation surprise in July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2024
CPI-inflation was reported at 0.7% mom, 4.1% yoy for July, the latter up from 3.7% yoy in June. Core inflation accelerated even more sharply, from 4.1% yoy in June to 4.7% yoy in July, on the same 0.7% mom average increase in core prices, as for the headline rate. Note: Year-on-year changes in pe...