Electoral uncertainty persists
In this report, we offer an initial assessment of the results of the April 12-13 national elections. We begin by discussing the uncertainty resulting from the tie for second place in the first round of the presidential election, and the difficulties faced by the Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE) in ensuring that all voting stations were open and functioning on polling day.
Next, we discuss the divide between Lima and the provinces. As in the 2021 election, this became the driver of the election results. We then discuss the possibility of a second-round runoff between presidential candidates Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez, and acknowledge that Fujimori is employing a different strategy than the one she used in the other three presidential run-offs in which she has participated.
On the composition of the new Congress, we argue that neither the right nor the left wing has gained a majority, and will require support from Jorge Nieto’s Partido del Buen Gobierno (PBG) in order to pass legislation.
Finally, we assess the implications for each of our base, high and low-case forecasts, as used in our quarterly forecast reports.
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