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TOPIC OF THE WEEK: 2025 CCA Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Forecast · 13 Dec 2024

2025 will bring lower GDP growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia, although the moderation in the pace of economic activity will be limited. We forecast average GDP growth to ease from an estimated 6.8% in 2024 to 5.5% in 2025, which will still be slightly above the previous decade's (2014-2023) ...

We are still here
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Dec 2024

The Central Bank not only raised the interest rate by 1 percentage point—against a majority, albeit not unanimous, expectation among analysts of a 0.75 percentage point hike—but also committed itself to two additional hikes of the same magnitude in upcoming Copom meetings. This decision was made ...

Easing cycle ends: NBU raises prime rate by 0.5 ppt to 13.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Dec 2024

The NBU Board has raised the prime rate by 0.5 ppt to 13.5%, effective December 13, marking the end of the easing cycle that began in July 2023. The primary reason for this decision was the acceleration of consumer inflation, which exceeded the 10% threshold (+1.9% m/m and +11.2% y/y in November)...

Balance of payments: no surprise in 11M24 amid the economy’s overheating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2024

The CBR published its flash estimate of the 11M24 balance of payments, and no major surprise was on the table. In 11M24, the current account surplus reached $57.4 bln as the trade balance widened to $118.6 bln. Exports accounted for $386.0 bln, while imports climbed to $267.5. In November alone, ...

All seems fine on the BOP front
TURKEY · Report · 12 Dec 2024

The current account recorded a $1.9 billion surplus in October, notably better than expectations of around a $1.3 billion surplus, compared with broad balance in the same month of last year, which, incidentally, marked the fifth consecutive month of surplus in the current account.

The Senate may vote on the tax reform bill, the government has committed to paying the parliamentary fund transfers tomorrow, and the Copom raised the basic interest rate (Selic)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Dec 2024

The Senate floor may vote today on the bill regulating tax reform. The proposal was approved yesterday by the Constitution and Justice Committee. The government has committed to beginning the parliamentary fund transfers on Friday. If this promise is kept, critical items on the political and econ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 12 Dec 2024

Nov 27 President: Kazakhstan remains a reliable strategic partner and ally of Russia. Budget: The Parliament of Kazakhstan approved the law "On the Republican Budget for 2025-2027". The 2025 budget deficit is set at 2.7% of GDP, with a decrease in 2026-2027 to 2.2% and 1.9% of GDP, respectively. ...

Highlights of yesterday's speech by President Milei
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 11 Dec 2024

Yesterday, December 10th, 2024, President Javier Milei addressed the Nation on the occasion of the first anniversary of his government. It was a 37-minute speech broadcast on national radio and television in which, instead of highlighting this year's achievements, which were many, he focused on t...

Syria post-Assad: outlook and implications for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Dec 2024 · 1 response

* While there is plenty to worry about, Syrians are celebrating the end of a brutal regime. * HTS has become the dominant force in much of Syria, but the balance with other groups is unclear. * HTS made encouraging pronouncements, including about minorities, women and non-retribution. * The gr...

The government continues to negotiate the fiscal package in the House, the Paten bill was approved in the Senate, and the Copom is expected to announce the new basic interest rate today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Dec 2024

The government continues negotiating in the Lower House to secure a vote on the fiscal package. Yesterday, the President of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), acknowledged that the package is controversial and faces substantive resistance from lawmakers. In the Senate, the bill instituting the Energ...

The political consequences of President Lula's health
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Dec 2024

President Lula's health, following a delicate surgery, raises reflections on the institutional and political implications across different scenarios. In this report, we analyze the potential consequences in cases of temporary or permanent replacement of the President, including scenarios of the p...

Lula underwent surgery last night and is in the ICU, Braga submitted his report on Tax Reform, and the Senate Economic Affairs Committee will hold confirmation hearings for the appointments to the Central Bank
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Dec 2024

President Lula underwent surgery in São Paulo on Monday night, December 9, after experiencing headaches. The surgery went well, and Lula is now being monitored in an ICU bed. This development could potentially impact Congress’s agenda. Yesterday, Senator Eduardo Braga released his report on the b...

CPI-inflation accelerated in November, but core inflation data still looks quite favorable
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Dec 2024 · 1 response

The headline rate of CPI-inflation rose to 3.7% yoy in November, from 3.2% yoy in the previous month, on a 0.5% increase in the CPI in November alone. However, core inflation was only 0.3% mom, 4.4% yoy, the latter moving marginally downwards, from 4.5% yoy in October. The headline rate rose esse...

The fiscal package will likely undergo changes and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Dec 2024 · 1 response

The Senate may conclude the vote on a bill regulating the Tax Reform. The House is also reviewing three appointments for the Central Bank. Meanwhile, the House is focusing on analyzing bills within the government’s fiscal adjustment package, which is expected to have a fiscal impact of R$70 billi...

The federal budget deficit is near zero in 11M24 but will soar in December
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Dec 2024

The Finance Ministry reported that in 11M24, federal budget revenues reached nearly R32.7 and moved steadily toward the annual target of R36.1 trln last month. In November alone, they attained almost R3.5 trln. Both the oil-and-gas (O&G) and the non-O&G revenues exceeded the 11M23 level by about ...

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