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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Taking stock
TURKEY · Report · 28 Jul 2024 · 2 responses

The single essay of the politics section is dedicated to guessing when early elections will be held and how the timing would impact Minister Simsek-led Economic Stabilization Program. President Erdogan doesn’t have the votes to legislate a new constitution, thus the only method for him to bypass ...

Elevated escalation risks in the North impacts markets
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Jul 2024

Geopolitics: 12 young people were killed and many more wounded by a missile fired by Hizballah on a Druze village in the Northern Golan Heights. Markets declined sharply on Sunday as this has increased the possibility of a significant escalation in the North. Meanwhile, cease-fire talks with Hama...

Russian crude oil exports to the CEE continue - an update on Ukraine sanctioning Lukoil
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Jul 2024

A lot of things have been said on this already, but much of the related news has been partially or fully inaccurate, or even outright disinformation in some cases. Most importantly, Ukraine's most recently introduced sanction stopping Lukoil crude oil shipments to Central Europe via the Druzhba 2...

NBU keeps prime rate unchanged at 13.0% amid faster inflation and FX volatility
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Jul 2024

Predictably, the NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 13.0% after the July 25th meeting. The accelerating inflation (+2.2% m/m and +4.8% y/y in June), substantial volatility in the FX market (with the hryvnia breaking the 42 per US dollar mark), and stagnant growth of hryvnia deposits made ...

Growth and challenges ahead: the 2024-2025 economic forecast
PANAMA · Forecast · 26 Jul 2024

The economic outlook for 2024-2025 predicts real GDP growth of 2.2% in 2024 and 4.0% in 2025, supported by major investments and recovering Canal operations. Key risks include the effects of the cessation of copper mining, high interest rates and fiscal deficits. Inflation will rise slightly, and...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait returns to deficit, Dubai GDP robust in Q1, Turkey returns Saudi $5bn, UAE considers Gaza role
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Jul 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude is set for a third weekly decline, to about $80. * The GCC fiscal surplus fell to 0.4% of GDP in 2023 as spending rose 8% and revenue fell by -10%. * Saudi tourism numbers surged by 65% in 2023, led by the lei...

Kazakhstan macro: Lacking tax revenue, the emphasis is on non-tax revenue
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 26 Jul 2024

As the tenge recently hovered about USD/KZT 475, which was much better for the budget than USD/KZD 440s, it seemed insufficient to obtain more tax revenues. A year ago, we argued that a USD/KZT level above 500 would have been much more desirable for collecting additional tax revenues, as well as ...

Celso Amorim will represent Brazil during the Venezuelan elections, MGI representatives will meet with the Sinagências to prevent a strike, and the STF will resume activity next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jul 2024

Special Advisor for Foreign Policy, Celso Amorim, will be in Venezuela on Sunday as the Brazilian government's representative for the presidential elections to take place there on Sunday, July 28. Depending on what happens, the Brazilian government may need to make a strong statement. On Monday, ...

July CCA Highlights: Armenian growth slows markedly, Azerbaijan's rating confirmed at Ba1 by Moody's, Georgia's EU accession put on hold, Uzbekistan cuts rates, Tajikistan's growth continues to surprise on the upside
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 26 Jul 2024

We comment briefly on the key macro and political themes in the CCA in July: Armenia: CA deficit worsens in 1Q24 Armenia: Monthly economic indicator accelerates to 7.1% YoY in Jun Armenia: Gross external debt inches up to 65 percent of GDP in 1Q24 Armenia: Inflation edges up to 0.8% YoY i...

Russia restricts behavior of migrant workers despite needing them badly
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jul 2024

On July 15 Russia published rules on what guest workers should and should not do. Most of them guest workers come from former USSR countries such as Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. They are overwhelmingly Muslim. They are told not to pray in public services or to sacrifice sheep for religi...

Putin meets Syrian President
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jul 2024

On July 15 President Assad was in Moscow. The two presidents spoke about the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Syria has been a Russian ally since the 1960s and is a deadly enemy of Israel. Syria has a difficult relationship with its neighbor Turkey. Russia is playing the honest broker b...

Congress approves the Fiscal Responsibility Law
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 25 Jul 2024

Today, the National Congress approved the Fiscal Responsibility Law. The purpose of the law is to guarantee that by 2035 the general government debt ratio stands at 40% of GDP. To this end, a limit is established on the annual growth of primary spending so that it does not exceed the growth of an...

Russia blocks the entry of leading Japanese business executives
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jul 2024

On July 23 13 businessmen were banned from entering the country. Among them were the president of Japan International Cooperation Agency, the Chairman of Rakuten and the head of Toyota. Moscow published a list of the people who are forbidden to enter Russia. The reason stated was because of Japan...

Anti-Financial Account Scamming Act (AFASA) signed into law
PHILIPPINES · Report · 25 Jul 2024

The Philippines is coming down hard on financial scams. President Marcos Jr signed into law the Anti-Financial Account Scamming Act or AFASA. The law consolidates three Senate resolutions, four Senate bills and a House Bill, and is aimed at deterring and penalizing financial cyber crimes, providi...

Campaigns for the municipal elections begin on August 16, Congress will hold a few weeks of concentrated voting efforts, and senators are calling for the urgent status of the Tax Reform regulation bill to be withdrawn
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jul 2024

There are 101 federal deputies and two senators who will run in this year's elections. According to the electoral calendar, the campaigns start on August 16. The President of the House, Deputy Arthur Lira (PP-AL), announced that, by agreement among leaders, there will be three weeks of concentrat...

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