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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Nov 7 -
Brazil Economics databank Nov 15
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Central America databank Oct 31
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Chile databank Oct 23
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 6
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 20
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 22
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Hungary databank Nov 21
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India databank Oct 30
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Mexico databank Nov 15
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Oct 15
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Philippines databank Nov 8
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Russia Economics databank Nov 13
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South Africa databank Nov 1
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Turkey databank Sep 18
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Ukraine databank Nov 12
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Venezuela databank Nov 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA IN 2025: HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE?...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Short and sweet
TURKEY · Report · 19 Jul 2024 · 1 response
The marquee politics event of the week was the introduction of tax legislation to the Grand Assembly, with its core tenets intact. The marquee non-event was a tiny hike to monthly pensions of retirees in the lowest income bracket, costing the budget only a trifling sum. In his uncharacteristicall...
Zelensky attends UK Cabinet
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jul 2024
On July 18 Zelensky arrived in the United Kingdom for the European Political Community Summit. The EPC was founded in 2022 just after the Ukraine War began. This is the 4th ever meeting of the EPC. The EPC includes all European countries from Iceland to Turkey, except Russia and Belarus. Zelensky...
Kazakhstan macro: budgetary policy continues to evolve, reshaping the macro environment
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 19 Jul 2024
In the past few days, the Bureau of National Statistics, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Bank of Kazakhstan published their regular monthly economic and financial statistics, which pointed to a continuous deceleration of economic growth amid moderating inflation. In such an environment,...
GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait finds offshore oil, Masdar issues green bond, Islamic State attacks Omani mosque, ICJ rules on Israeli occupation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Jul 2024 · 2 responses
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * PIF signed agreements with three Chinese renewable firms to establish local manufacturing. * Bond issuance is planned to refinance the $13bn bridge loan for Aramco Gas Pipelines. * Masdar issued $1bn in 5-10 year green bo...
Haddad announced a R$ 15 billion budget cut to comply with the fiscal framework, the Voa Brasil program will begin next week, and the PGR opposed a PT request for the STF to suspend the concession for Sabesp
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Jul 2024
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announced yesterday that the government will make a cut of R$ 15 billion to comply with the fiscal framework this year. There will be R$ 11.2 billion of blocked funds, due to spending above the 2.5% limit provided for in the framework, and R$ 3.8 billion in contin...
President Lula will participate in the Budget Execution Board meeting, Congress informally recesses today, and Congress will hold a few concentrated voting efforts before the October municipal elections
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jul 2024
This afternoon, President Lula will participate in the Budget Execution Board meeting to discuss this year's budget cuts and contingencies. Attending the meeting will be the Chief of Staff, Rui Costa, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, the Minister of Planning and Budget, Simone Tebet, and...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Jul 2024
The Russian FX market operates in a specific mode in the aftermath of US sanctions against the local stock exchange and its subsidiaries, which were introduced about a month ago. Problems with the settlement for imports reduced the demand for FX. The ruble became too strong, and this recent appre...
Plunge in liquidity growth and weaker growth prospects for 2024
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 17 Jul 2024 · 1 response
Economic activity in May 2024 grew at 4.3% y/y, and although the cumulative expansion in January-May 2024 (4.9% y/y) remained close to the potential growth rate of 5%, questions remain about whether this pace of growth can be maintained, if the plunge in the economy's liquidity seen in June 2024 ...
No agreement was reached on payroll tax relief in the Senate, Lula’s statement yesterday worried the market regarding commitment to the fiscal framework, and the CCJ may vote on the Central Bank PEC
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jul 2024
As expected, no agreement was reached on the compensatory measures for payroll tax relief. Consequently, the vote on the bill was postponed until August 30. According to Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), the idea is to refine the details of this issue by then. Yesterday, Lula said, “You ...
Uzbekistan's law on foreign undesirables
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2024
The Uzbek Parliament will pass a law that will allow the government to ban people from entering the country who have offended Uzbekistan or deport those who have already entered. The aim of the law according to its preamble is to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Uzbekistan. An...
Electioneering for 2026 starts early; economy expands into Q2 2024, and government plans for a larger fiscal deficit; we expect the BCRP to resume cuts in October
PERU · Report · 16 Jul 2024 · 1 response
In this report, we discuss three topics. We observe that the campaign program for the 2026 elections has been brought forward. We then explain that the economic rebound that started in April 2024 was sustained into Q2. Finally, we discuss the drivers of the decision by the Board of the Banco Cent...
Anchoring exchange-rate expectations for further inflation slowdown
ARGENTINA · Report · 16 Jul 2024
During the last few weeks there has been very good news on the course of inflation. But two sets of side effects of the stabilization policy create doubts about its sustainability: the widening of the gap between the blue-chip swap rate (CCL) and the official exchange rate (which many observers i...
The dark political web
ECUADOR · Forecast · 16 Jul 2024
The constant confrontation between the executive and legislative powers sometimes distracts attention from other developments that might have important consequences for the political stability of the country and its future. New members of the Council of Citizen Participation and Social Control...
Zelensky open to talks with Russia for first time since 2022
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jul 2024
On July 15 Zelensky said that he wants Russia delegates to attend a peace summit to be held in August 2024 probably in Qatar. Qatar and Saudi Arabia have brokered prisoner exchanges and the return of Ukrainian children taken to Russia without parental permission. Zelensky said the summit should r...
The government insists on a tax increase for companies, the Senate may vote on the payroll tax compensations bill, and a leaked audio recording worsens Bolsonaro’s legal situation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jul 2024
Yesterday, after a meeting between President Lula, ministers, and government leaders in Congress, it was decided that the government will insist on an increase of up to 1% in the CSLL for companies. According to the Minister of Institutional Relations, the measure is on the table. The compensatio...