Peru: The left sneaks into the presidential elections

PERU - In Brief 25 Mar 2026 by Alfredo Thorne

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This morning Ipsos published its March 22nd poll and simulation. This poll was performed before the presidential debates taking place this week. Ipsos is the only pollster that simulates the presidential election using confidential ballots and we believe is the most accurate. The poll shows that Keiko Fujimori (KF) from Fuerza Popular party and Rafael López Aliaga (RLA) from Renovación Popular are tied in first place. KF increased her total votes to 11% from 10% in March 6th poll, and RLA slipped to 10% from 11%, but the difference is less than the +/- 2.8% confidence interval. However, news were that there is a quadruple tied with 5% of the total votes between: Alfonso López Chau (ALC) from Ahora Nacion (center left); Roberto Sanchez (RS) from Juntos por el Peru (former president Pedro Castillo party); Carlos Alvarez (CA) from Pais Para Todos (right wing); and Jorge Nieto (JN) from Partido del Buen Gobierno (center-right). In the simulation exercise Ipsos puts KF first with 17.3% of the valid votes, followed by RLA with 17.2%, both tied in first place; then comes ALC with 7.9% followed by RS with 7.5%, then CA with 7.4% and finally JN with 5.4%. The most surprising is the jumped made by RS with 4.3 percentage points (pp) between the two March polls, then comes JN with 3.2 pp, next KF with 2.9pp and finally ALC with 1.5pp. In the opposite direction CA loses 1.5pp. Had we have to identify trends, RS and JN are the two candidates gaining votes. RS in the rural areas where he capture 14.9% of the total votes; and JN in Lima attracting 7% of the total votes. It is difficult call the elections, but there seem to be two scenarios. One that KF and RLA move to the second round...