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US postpones military drills in Georgia due to rift
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jul 2024

On July 5 the United States said it will not hold the exercises in the Republic of Georgia for the foreseeable future. This was explicitly because of the US reviewing relations with the former Soviet republic. Washington DC is unhappy with the Foreign Agent Act that was passed in Georgia in June ...

NATO pledges USD 43 billion military aid to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jul 2024

On June 5 NATO confirmed the rumors about the donation. This is ahead of the NATO Summit in Washington DC starting on July 9. The major donation is another attempt to Trump-proof Ukraine in case Trump becomes president again on January 20, 2025. The NATO Secretary-General called for the member th...

PM Orbán indeed showed up in Moscow today. But why?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Jul 2024

Mr. Orbán indeed travelled to Moscow today, meeting president Putin, talking mainly about the war in Ukraine. They held a press conference afterwards, where Mr. Orbán said that he understands that the period of Hungary's rotating EU presidency is also a kind of a peace mission. A Kremlin spokesma...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: 1Q24 entrenches theme of CA return to "normal" deficit position
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Jul 2024

The publication of current account data for the CCA economies for 1Q24 allows us to assess overall external performance in the region in the first quarter of the year. The key theme that we have argued previously, i.e., that the one-off sizable improvement of CA positions in 2022 on the back of ...

The Tax Reform Working Group presented the first version of the text, the government requested an urgent status for the CBS and IBS Tax Reform bill, and Lula will participate in the Mercosur Summit next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Jul 2024

The House Working Group on Tax Reform regulation on the Goods and Services Tax (IBS) and Contribution on Goods and Services (CBS) presented the first version of the text. The Selective Tax will be levied on vehicles, vessels, and aircraft, tobacco products, alcoholic and sugary beverages, mineral...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi employment improves in Q1 but FDI remains weak, PIF and Qatar Airways report strong profits, Israel sends ceasefire negotiators back to Qatar
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Jul 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Current surpluses rose in Q1 in Qatar (15% of GDP) and KSA (3%) but eased in Bahrain (5%). * Inward FDI remained weak in KSA (1% of GDP), fell in Bahrain (to 2%), and turned negative in Qatar. * Qatar’s PMI surged in June...

PM Orbán is supposedly on his way to Moscow at this moment
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Jul 2024

PM Orbán met Ukrainian president Zelensky on Tuesday this week (July 2). This meeting was followed by an impressive amount of media noise, created by the affected governments, other politicians, political analysts and journalists all around the world. Most of the post-meeting comments appeared to...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Jul 2024

The effects of sanctions against the Russian FX infrastructure are still visible. The ruble remains abnormally strong (currently, it trades around R/$87-88 on the OTC market vs about R/$90 before the announcement of restrictions). It looks abnormal as the bank’s net liquidity position with the CB...

Turkmen pipeline to Iran
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jul 2024

On July 3 a contract was signed. The pipeline will enable 10 billion cubic meters (BCM) of natural gas to go to Iran each year. The gas will then be shipped to Iraq. The pipeline will be 125 km long. The price that will be paid by Iran has not been stated. Iran has the second largest reserves of ...

US donates USD 2.3 billion and rumors of NATO donations of USD 43 billion
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jul 2024

On July 3 the US Defense Secretary said that it would make the donation for security assistance. Ukraine is pleading with allies for more air defense. The latest aid package consists of air defense interceptors and anti-tank weapons. In June 2024 the Netherlands and an unnamed EU country gave Ukr...

Downside surprise on inflation
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2024

Consumer prices rose by a less than expected 1.6% in June (vs. 2.2%), with the 12-month rate declining visibly to 71.6% from 75.4% in May, helped, as anticipated, by base effects. Producer prices rose by 1.4% in the month (June 2023: 6.5%), with a much sharper decline in the 12-month PPI rate to ...

Lula said he will only appoint the next BC president when he is sure it will be quickly confirmed in the Senate, Campos Neto said Lula’s criticisms make it harder to control inflation, and the Tax Reform Working Group should submit its final report
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Jul 2024

President Lula gave another interview to the press and addressed topics of market interest. He said he will only appoint the next Central Bank president when he is certain it will be quickly confirmed by the Senate. The appointment process goes through the Economic Affairs Committee and then the ...

Chinese President on state visit to Kazakhstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2024

On July 2 Xi Jinping landed in Astana for a state visit. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is holding a summit in Astana starting on July 3. Xi also in Kazakhstan for that. China dominate the SCO. Russia is also a member of the SCO and Putin shall attend. Other members include India, Pa...

The legislative election and the Mulino inaugural speech: we give the benefit of the doubt with mixed feelings
PANAMA · In Brief · 02 Jul 2024 · 1 response

As anticipated, the ad-hoc coalition that favored the government of José Raúl Mulino won the Presidency of the Assembly with 44 votes by electing Dana Castañeda, a last-minute candidate, supported by Ricardo Martinelli directly and (his) Realizando Metas party as a group. This election confirms M...

Essential CIS Politics: July 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Jul 2024

* The war has led to minor gains for Russia as both sides bombard each other’s cities. * EU and US aid and loans bolster Ukraine. * Putin’s visit to North Korea and Vietnam shows Russia is not isolated. * Georgia’s foreign agent law has been passed.

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