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Risk premium declines on optimism regarding a cease-fire, but much will depend on fiscal credibility
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Nov 2024

Geopolitics: Israel continues to exchange missile fire with Hezbollah in Lebanon and continues its ground operation. A lower-level war continues in Northern Gaza. Apparently, a cease-fire framework with Hezbollah and Lebanon appears increasingly likely, while the impasse with Hamas continues. The...

Audentes Fortuna Iuvat
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2024

Turkey’s bombastic and excitable pundit community discussed nothing but the peace offering of MHP leader Mr. Bahceli to Kurds. President Erdogan is generally supportive of Bahceli, but has so far refused to take the leadership of a new Peace Process, as talks on addressing Kurds’ grievances are c...

The 2024-2025 economic reform's timeline: two steps forward, still four to go
PANAMA · In Brief · 01 Nov 2024

Summary We discuss the key reforms that will take place during the Mulino administration. The Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRSF) and the Public Sector Budget for 2025 were approved last week, with political setbacks. The Legislative Assembly (AN) introduced changes in the proposal of the Ministry o...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil dips after Israeli strikes, FII convenes in Riyadh, GCC-NZ FTA signed, Dubai announces budget
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Nov 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped after Israeli strikes on Iran did not target oil facilities. * The IMF forecasts fiscal breakeven oil prices for 2025 from $45 for Qatar to $125 for Bahrain. * The GCC signed a rare FTA with New Zealand, a mont...

The economy keeps growing amid soaring domestic demand and overheating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Nov 2024

Rosstat reported that in 9M24, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) was up by 4.9% y-o-y. It grew by 3.0% in September and posted clear signs of a deceleration. The latter looks organic amid a high base in 2H23. Industrial output ex...

Congress will host the G20 event next week, the House may vote on the bill that establishes new rules for parliamentary fund transfers, and the Copom will decide on the new basic interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Nov 2024

Next week, the National Congress will host the 10th Summit of Presidents of the G20 Parliaments from November 6 to 8. The event’s theme is “Parliaments for a Fair World and a Sustainable Planet.” Due to this, access to Congress will be highly restricted. On Monday or Tuesday, November 4 or 5, the...

Essential CIS Politics: November 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Nov 2024

-Russia continues a steady advance along the front. -Ukraine makes bold pronouncements on victory plans. -North Korean troops are alleged to be readied for war in Ukraine. -BRICS summit is held in Russia with many world leaders in attendance. -Moldova and Georgia hold bitt...

Prime rate holds at 13.0%; NBU signals readiness for potential rate hike
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Nov 2024

On October 31st, the NBU Board, as anticipated, kept the prime rate steady at 13.0% for the third consecutive time. With inflation accelerating (+1.5% m/m and +8.6% y/y in September) and the challenges of a third winter under missile and drone strikes, the NBU has little choice but to remain in a...

Webinar replay: Georgia's Elections and Caucasus and Central Asia Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 Nov 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the CCA's political and economic outlook. What will Georgia's outlook be following its war or peace parliamentary elections? Is Armenia's diamond bonanza over? How did Uzbekistan and Tajikistan manage to increase remittances and imp...

Slide presentation: Georgia's Elections and Caucasus and Central Asia Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 Nov 2024

Get insight into the Caucasus and Central Asia region's political and economic outlook with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Georgia's Elections and Caucasus and Central Asia Outlook".

The Central Bank lowers the monetary policy rate once again
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Nov 2024

For the third consecutive month, the Central Bank has decided to reduce the monetary policy rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down from 6.50% in October to 6.25% annually. Similarly, the rate for the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day Repos) has decreased from 7.00% to 6.75% per yea...

Decentralization dream could become a fiscal nightmare
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Oct 2024 · 2 responses

Colombian Congress has a relatively good track record in fiscal prudence: an insane number of tax reforms have been approved over the last three decades; two fiscal rules and a fiscal responsibility law have been enacted; and fiscal sustainability was enshrined in the Constitution in 2011. There ...

A date for budget cuts has not yet been set, the House concluded the vote on the bill on the management of IBS, and the discussion of Arthur Lira’s succession continues
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Oct 2024

There is speculation that the government’s announcement of budget cuts could range between R$40 billion and R$60 billion. However, according to the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, no date has been set for announcing these measures. Yesterday, the Lower House concluded the vote on the bill t...

South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement indicates the government recorded a primary budget surplus in FY2023/24 for the first time in 15 years
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 31 Oct 2024

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, who has remained in his position during South Africa’s transition from being sorely governed by the African National Party (ANC) to a Government of National Unity (GNU), presented an update on government finances since the presentation of the country’s main Budg...

The start of the new government
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Oct 2024

On October 20, 2024, the changeover of the Indonesian presidency proceeded smoothly from President Joko Widodo to General Prabowo Subianto, who becomes the eighth President of Indonesia. The new president delivered a clear message of what will be the main objective of his presidency. The chang...

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