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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Kazakhstan macro: Fiscal Year 2025 may still be challenging despite the weaker tenge
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Dec 2024

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance recently published budget execution statistics for various segments of the budgetary system, including extra-budgetary funds and the National Fund incorporated in the consolidated budget. The fiscal trends that we have regularly covered didn’t change much, apart f...

Industry keeps growing with no surprises
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Dec 2024

Rosstat recently reported that the Russian industrial output expanded by 4.3% y-o-y in 11M24, posting some y-o-y deceleration as in November alone, it grew by 3.7% y-o-y amid uneven last year’s base effects. Seasonally adjusted (by Rosstat) industrial output increased in November by 0.7% m-o-m, w...

Korean or Finland scenario for Ukraine? No Gordian knot solution in sight.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Dec 2024

Foreign Affairs recently published an excellent article titled 'A Pathway to Peace in Ukraine' by Samuel Charap. I would like to react to it. The comment by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that 'a ceasefire is a road to nowhere' aligns closely with the perspective Samuel Charap, a Distingu...

CBRT cuts by 250 basis points by Atilla Yesilada
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Dec 2024

‘Tis the season to be jolly, thus I locked Murat into our broom closet to promote my brand of CBRT watch, which is highly emotional and sensationalist, similar to gonzo journalism. CBRT MPC gave the nation a New Year’s gift by cutting rates by 250 basis points. It also narrowed the corridor betwe...

BI-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Dec 2024

Dec 11 National Welfare Fund: Samruk-Kazyna intends to postpone the IPO of the national gas company QazaqGaz (initially planned for 2025) to create more attractive conditions for investors. Agriculture production: The US Department of Agriculture has maintained its forecast for Kazakh wheat expor...

Financial stability report: signals of confidence amid war and uncertainty
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Dec 2024

If you’re looking for a bit of optimism about Ukraine, you should take a look at the year-end Financial Stability Report released by the NBU yesterday. The monetary authorities are exuding optimism about the financial health of the banking system, reporting that the NBU’s Financial Stress Index h...

Economics: Balance of risks skewed to the upside
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2024

The balance of economic risks for next year is skewed to the upside. Several of the risks anticipated in previous months have materialized. Among them are an institutional weakening, fiscal deterioration, lower business confidence to invest in Mexico, and threats to trade and the external economy...

Pension reform postponed, again… Martinelli loses in court, again… First Quantum seeks allies, again… Trump tries to influence Panama, again.
PANAMA · Report · 23 Dec 2024

Two tasks were pending for December 2024: (1) the Government's Economic Program (PEG), which we will analyze in detail in early January once it is officially published. It will form the basis for our projections for the next five years; and (2) the CSS reform, particularly the pension plan within...

Politics: As challenges grow and the economy weakens, Sheinbaum is at a crossroads
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2024

While Claudia Sheinbaum is basking in high approval ratings, signs point to potential problems ahead that could spell trouble. In her first 100 days in office, the new President has concentrated on getting legislative approval for AMLO’s constitutional amendments, chief among them the Judicial...

Guevara’s headaches
COLOMBIA · Report · 23 Dec 2024 · 1 response

The 2024 congressional sessions didn’t end well for the government. First and foremost, Congress sank the mini-tax reform, the Ley de Financiamiento. President Gustavo Petro reacted badly to this, announcing that “the budget crisis will not be paid for by the people,” and promising to: 1) explore...

Robust CA surplus and FDI remain shekel supportive
ISRAEL · Report · 23 Dec 2024

1. Both the current account surplus and FDI remained robust in Q3, supportive of the shekel. 2. Residential investments increased in Q3, but completions are still below the current demand. 3. We maintain our forecast of 2.4% inflation NTM (lower end of consensus), and three rate cuts in 2...

External fundamentals remain robust and shekel supportive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Dec 2024

Geopolitics: Israel’s geopolitical situation has greatly improved, following the ceasefire in Lebanon (still holding), the end of the Assad regime (breaking the flow of armaments from Iran to Hezbollah), and the weakening of Iran in the region (having lost an important ally in Syria). Nevertheles...

Upside down
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Dec 2024

In recent weeks, suspicions that we are operating under a fiscal dominance regime, or very close to it, have surfaced. However, we still do not believe this to be the case, despite monetary policy weakening in face of fiscal policy mismanagement, which has rapidly increased the costs of disinflat...

Bracing for Trump, after a reasonable 2024
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 20 Dec 2024

In Costa Rica, political confrontation between the Executive branch and Congress and the Judiciary persists. President Rodrigo Chaves’ style, which resembles that of other authoritarian and populist presidents in this hemisphere, also shares with those leaders’ popularity in the polls. Consequenc...

A prelude to 2025
TURKEY · Report · 20 Dec 2024 · 1 response

For Turkey, the sudden regime change in Syria promises to be the primary source of uncertainty in 2025. The politics author predicts short term damage but magnificent mid- and long-term gains, where mid-term is defined as at least a year. Achieving the long sought after objective of completely di...

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