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Another setback for the Executive: the Budget Committee returns the MEF Proposal... we analyze the options of both groups
PANAMA · In Brief · 23 Oct 2024 · 1 response

The 2025 budget project, approved by the cabinet on October 15 and presented the same day to the Assembly, was returned (not rejected) after the first debate in the Legislative Assembly. The 15 members of the budget committee requested the Minister of Economy and Finance to modify his proposal to...

Moldovan presidential election and EU referendum analysis
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Oct 2024

Moldova has been labelled by observers a “geopolitical swing State”, at the crossroads between the West and Russia. Last weekend’s events confirmed there is a clear social divide over the future of this small former Soviet Republic bordering Ukraine, which constitutes another less-known scenario ...

Volatility and divergence
CHILE · Report · 23 Oct 2024

Economic activity has been characterized by significant volatility, and uneven performance across sectors. Data related to consumption, including commerce, services and taxes on products, remain largely stagnant. Investment-related data also reveal limited dynamism. But manufacturing experienced ...

The presidents of the STF, House and Senate meet to discuss the parliamentary fund transfers bill, the rapporteur of the bill should submit it by next week, and the voting schedule for the Tax Reform bill is expected to be outlined today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Oct 2024

This afternoon, the President of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Justice Luís Roberto Barroso, and Justice Flávio Dino will meet with the Presidents of the Lower House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), to discuss the bill that sets new rules for parliamentary fund t...

Rates are held today, as expected: here are the key messages from the Council
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Oct 2024

The base rate was held by the Monetary Council unchanged at 6.5%, the corridor also remaining +/-1%-point around the base rate, as widely expected. This time around, Mr. Virág had left for the IMF/World Bank annual meeting, and so the post-meeting press/analyst conference was held by Csaba Kandrá...

Congressional leaders should meet to discuss parliamentary fund transfers, Lula has not yet chosen whom he will support in the Lower House succession, and the ministerial team may change to improve communication with the House
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Oct 2024

Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) and House President Arthur Lira (PP-AL) are expected to meet with Senator Angelo Coronel (PSD-BA) this morning to discuss the bill proposing new rules for parliamentary fund transfers. President Lula (PT), in an effort to maintain good relations with the ...

Internal security to the fore; Congress approves pension reform; BCRP to pause in November
PERU · Report · 22 Oct 2024

We cover three topics in this report. First, we discuss the recent security issues challenging Congress, and President Dina Boluarte. Then we summarize and analyze the new pension fund reform published on September 24th. Finally, we discuss the decision by the Board of the Banco Central de Reserv...

No new tax reform proposal will be forthcoming
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 21 Oct 2024 · 1 response

This afternoon, President Abinader indicated that there is no new proposal for fiscal reform. The government will make all the necessary budget adjustments. He also assured that the government will continue with the implementation of the Fiscal Responsibility Law and the application of the fiscal...

Anticipated spending cuts, municipal election runoff preview and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2024

The highlight in the National Congress is the presentation of the schedule for the regulation of the Tax Reform in the Senate’s Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ). This is the last week of campaigning before the municipal election runoff. On Sunday, October 27, 52 cities will choose their m...

Economics: Economic and political regime change modifies the balance of risks in the medium-to-long term
MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2024

Amid a wave of fresh constitutional reforms, some already approved and others progressing at a fast clip, the arrival of the new president and Federal Congress marks a shift in the country's economic-political regime—a shift that defines a balance of risks and opportunities that are quite differe...

Not So Fast
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Oct 2024

After robust growth early in the year, economic activity shows some signs of slowing down in high-frequency data, largely due, we believe, to changes in fiscal policy dynamics. The first half of the year was marked by a fast expansion of public spending, which has cooled off more recently. The la...

IMF Fifth Review: Reform Targets Grow More Demanding
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Oct 2024

On Friday, October 18, the IMF reported on the fifth review of the EFF arrangement for Ukraine and announced a $1.1 billion disbursement channeled to Ukraine's budget. The tone of the press release was very positive, highlighting that the authorities met all end-June quantitative performance crit...

How long can consumer savings last?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Oct 2024

China is hoping a short-term stimulus package will revive the economy. The rumored size of a package keeps growing. Although a large stimulus package has not taken place, the impact of the slowing economy on ordinary citizens has been reduced due to the size of savings deposits in the banks and g...

Another slow week in Congress, the runoff of the municipal elections will be held on Sunday, and Senator Braga should present the work schedule for the Tax Reform regulation bill this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2024

This will be another slow week in Congress due to the municipal elections. Next Sunday (October 27), voters in 52 cities with a population above 200,000 residents will hold the runoff of the municipal elections. Once the runoff concludes, the National Congress, which has been in an informal reces...

Politics: Governability risks on multiple fronts
MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2024

With Claudia Sheinbaum in office less than three weeks, analysts, as well as political, economic, and social actors, are raising questions on the challenges the new government faces in terms of guaranteeing governability. In this week’s edition of the Political Outlook we highlight 28 risks in th...

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