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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The government will discuss parliamentary fund transfers, a working group on credit costs may be installed, and the market is concerned about two bills on state-owned companies
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Oct 2024

According to the government leader in Congress, Senator Randolfe Rodrigues (PT-AP), next week there will be a meeting between representatives of the three branches of government to address the issue of parliamentary fund transfers. The Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha, said ...

Negotiating fiscal reform an uphill battle
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 17 Oct 2024

The government presented its tax reform proposal, which seeks to increase tax revenues by $2 billion, equivalent to 1.5% of GDP. The tax reform burden will primarily fall on individuals, due to the increase in consumption, income and property taxes, which account for 82% of the additional revenue...

Heightened uncertainty over disinflation pace acknowledged, but...
TURKEY · Report · 17 Oct 2024

As expected, the CBRT/MPC remained on hold today, keeping the policy rate (one week repo) at 50%. The first paragraph appears to have been modified somewhat, while the rest of the statement regarding disinflation strategy and monetary policy guidance is exactly the same with September statement.

Zelenskiy's Victory Plan – no territorial concessions
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Oct 2024

There are gloomy expectations across the country, as everyone understands that the results of the U.S. elections could dramatically change our lives—something completely beyond our control. Against this backdrop, Zelenskiy's Victory Plan seems to be an effort to show that Ukrainian leadership is ...

The Executive Office removed the urgent status of three bills, Senator Braga delayed the presentation of the Tax Reform bill work schedule, and Minister Tebet discussed important fiscal matters
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2024

Yesterday, the Executive Office withdrew the constitutional urgent status of three bills sent to the National Congress: Bill 3.335/24, concerning gas subsidies; Bill 3.337/24, regarding the transfer of local surpluses for the ongoing exploration and production of oil and natural gas; and Bill 3.3...

The exchange rate anchor finally gave in
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Oct 2024

On Friday, October 11, the unsustainability of the policy of anchoring the official exchange rate materialized. The BCV sold $30 million in an “auction” in which it gave signals about the price it was looking for and took the rate to 39.75 bolivars per dollar, marking an increase of 3 percent in ...

From dark to darker
ECUADOR · Forecast · 15 Oct 2024

Our September report was entitled “A dark fourth quarter". That is precisely what we expect for the past quarter, with the problem of blackouts of up to 10 hours for every industrial and household sector and no near-term solution in sight, since rain—the main ally of a slow government—will not be...

Economics: Afores (private pension funds) could be the next source for financing the growing public deficit
MEXICO · Report · 15 Oct 2024

Public finances have continually weakened, especially in the past three years, with ever-increasing public deficits. For 2024, it is estimated that the public deficit will close at nearly 6% of GDP. The factors underpinning this forecast are that the federal government accelerated its spending to...

Downward inflation surprise in September reduces chances of tightening in the near future
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Oct 2024

September’s inflation print (-0.2% m/m 3.5% y/y moderating from 3.6%) came in below market expectations of no change (0,0%, ours as well). Core inflation moderated as well to 3.0% y/y from 3.1%. Housing rental price (OER) accelerated slightly to 2.8% y/y from 2.6%. The big surprise came from airf...

Politics: Judicial reform advances but conflicts continue, with major potential consequences
MEXICO · Report · 15 Oct 2024

Morena and AMLO’s much touted judicial reform has passed the legislative procedural hurdles, and the National Electoral Institute (INE) has agreed to organize the election of judges, justices, magistrates, with the first election slated for next June. However, the fight is far from over, and the ...

Lira has scheduled a Congressional session for this week with virtual attendance, the FPE will meet with Barreirinhas to discuss the 15% tax on multinationals, and the CAE holds a public hearing to discuss the impact of Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Oct 2024

The President of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), has scheduled a Congressional session for this week but has allowed for virtual attendance. In other words, the session can be attended remotely by the deputies. Today, the Parliamentary Front for Entrepreneurship (FPE) will meet with the Special S...

Battles in the runoff, the right-wing's unity and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Oct 2024

Senator Eduardo Braga is expected to present the work schedule for the regulation of Tax Reform (PLP No. 68/24). The Senate’s Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) continues to hold public hearings to discuss the topic. The National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) may open a public consultation on the ...

You Reap What You Sow
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Oct 2024

Recently, the Treasury has faced difficulties in placing fixed-rate or inflation-linked bonds, as their prices embed a high-risk premium. As a result, the share of Selic-linked bonds has grown rapidly, worsening the composition of public debt by reducing maturities and increasing sensitivity to i...

The Deputy Governor hints at possible tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Oct 2024

1. Rates remained on hold last week, with the Deputy Governor sounding rather hawkish compared to the Governor. 2. The fiscal deficit pushed higher in September but is expected to reach 7.2% GDP this year. 3. Economic growth accelerated in Q324 (exports especially), with expectations for so...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Oct 2024

Oct 3 Borrowings: Kazakhstan placed sovereign Eurobonds worth $1.5 bln at a 4.717% yield. The demand was strong as issuance was oversubscribed by a factor of 4. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan will provide the largest compensation for oil overproduction within OPEC+ in October  Oct 6 President: A con...

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