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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Nov 7 -
Brazil Economics databank Nov 15
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Central America databank Oct 31
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Chile databank Oct 23
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 6
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 20
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 22
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Hungary databank Nov 21
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India databank Oct 30
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Mexico databank Nov 15
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Oct 15
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Philippines databank Nov 8
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Russia Economics databank Nov 13
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South Africa databank Nov 1
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Turkey databank Sep 18
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Ukraine databank Nov 12
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Venezuela databank Nov 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA IN 2025: HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE?...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
The rapporteur of the payroll tax relief bill will submit his report this week, the House resumes analysis of the Mover bill, and the Senate CCJ may vote on the bill that authorizes gambling in the country
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jun 2024
The submission of Senator Jaques Wagner's (PT-BA) report on the bill concerning payroll tax relief for companies and municipalities is expected this week. The text will include the agreement reached between companies and the government. This week, the House resumes analysis of Bill No. 914/24, wh...
Business sector optimism improves modestly
ISRAEL · Report · 10 Jun 2024
1. The fiscal deficit continues to drift higher as expenditure growth remains rapid. 2. Business sector sentiment improved modestly, with expectations for inflationary pressure. 3. We expect inflation in May to reach 0.7% m/m, at the high end of consensus.
First reaction to yesterday's election: no great success for Fidesz
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2024
To sum it up, Fidesz did relatively well in most respects, winning the European election in the Hungarian vote and keeping most of their positions at the local government elections, compared to the previous local elections in 2019, and even winning new positions here and there. But they have lost...
EU expanding investments in Central Asian energy to offset ending imports from Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Jun 2024
On June 5 MVM (a Hungarian energy conglomerate) said it was going to purchase a 5% stake in the Shah Deniz gas field in the Caspian Sea. It produces over 29 billion cubic meters (bcm). The stake should mean that Hungary receives 1.5 bcm per annum. Hungary also signed a 15 year gas deal with Russi...
Hotter politics, cooler economy
TURKEY · Report · 09 Jun 2024
The Turkish financial markets were rattled briefly mid-week, as the main opposition leader Ozgur Ozel threatened to launch a campaign for early elections. He later clarified his statements, essentially suggesting it is too early for that. Yet, his strategy of negotiating with Erdogan includes lev...
Business sentiment improves modestly, but inflation concerns increase
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Jun 2024
Geopolitics: Israel continues its offensive in Rafah and missiles/drones continue to penetrate Israel from Hezbollah in the North, at generally a more intense level. Gantz (National Unity Party) announced his resignation from the war cabinet on Sunday, criticizing Netanyahu especially for not pla...
St Petersburg Economic Forum: mainly domestic attendance as Putin denounces Western hegemony
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jun 2024
The Forum was held for the 27th time. Putin said that nations are buttressing their sovereignty and he rebuked the West for seeking to maintain dominance. Russia is open about its strategy of appealing to the Global South. Moscow says it is anti-imperialist which is odd as it seeks to rebuild the...
GULF WEEKLY: Aramco equity offering raises $11bn, Kuwait crown prince appointed, Oman spending down -2% in 2023
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Jun 2024 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude partly recovers to $80, after initially bearish sentiments about the OPEC+ deal. * Qatar is hosting more ceasefire consultations as Biden’s Gaza plan faces pushback. * Qalibaf and Ahmadinejad added their names...
Zelensky in France and Qatar
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jun 2024
On June 5 the Ukrainian President met the Emir of Qatar to discuss ending the war. Qatar voted to condemn the Russian invasion but has brokered the return of some Ukrainian children from Russia. Qatar is a back channel between the warring nations. On June 6 Zelensky was in Normandy for the 80th ...
New mobilization law: shifting towards a militarized society
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Jun 2024
Ukraine is implementing new mobilization rules. The recruiting rules in 2022 were very lenient for a full-scale war of attrition. In the early days of the Russian invasion, Ukrainians mobilized voluntarily, and volunteers comprised the core of the army that defeated the Russians in 2022. However,...
Pacheco requested a study on the impact of the MP on PIS/Cofins credits, the rapporteur of the payroll tax relief bill will submit his report next week, and Antonio Rueda assumes the presidency of the União Brasil on Tuesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jun 2024
Yesterday, during the leaders' meeting, the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), said that he requested a study on the MP's impact from the Senate consultancy. Senator Jaques Wagner (PT-BA), rapporteur of the bill that deals with payroll tax relief for companies and city halls, will...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Does the Uzbek sum's appreciation have legs?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Jun 2024
The Uzbekistani sum has generally been the weakest currency in the CCA region for many years for reasons related to powerful underlying relative price movements that have dominated the sum's movements since the opening of the economy in 2017. Hence, any episode of a more sizable strengthening of ...
South Africa’s current account turns favorable as terms of trade improve in Q1 2024
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Jun 2024
The latest current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank shows that, during the first quarter of 2024, while South Africa’s current account continued its trend of consecutive deficits since Q2 2022, the deficit was noticeably smaller than that of the preceding quarter. The defic...
The government completed the acquisition of Budapest Airport
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jun 2024
Just as expected, the government has acquired a majority stake in Budapest Airport, the Economy Ministry announced yesterday. They bought an 80% stake for €3.1bn (HUF965bn or 1.2% of GDP), the rest purchased by the French airport management company Vinci Airports. Analysts commenting on the deal ...
Largely mediocre numbers this week, from the growth point of view at least
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jun 2024
This morning, the front page of KSH's website started with the pretty good-looking report that the volume of gross industrial output grew by 6.4% yoy in April. Yes, for sure, but there were three more workdays (21) in April 2024 than in April 2023 (18). Consequently, the seasonally and day-adjust...