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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Nov 7 -
Brazil Economics databank Nov 15
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Central America databank Oct 31
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Chile databank Oct 23
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 6
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 20
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 22
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Hungary databank Nov 21
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India databank Oct 30
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Mexico databank Nov 15
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Oct 15
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Philippines databank Nov 8
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Russia Economics databank Nov 13
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South Africa databank Nov 1
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Turkey databank Sep 18
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Ukraine databank Nov 12
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Venezuela databank Nov 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA IN 2025: HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE?...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
The government was defeated in important vetoes yesterday, the House approved the Mover bill that ends the import tax exemption for international purchases, and the Tax Reform Working Group will have 17 public hearings
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 May 2024
Yesterday, the government suffered symbolic defeats in Congress. President Lula's veto of the law that prohibited temporary release of prisoners to visit family members, known as “saidinhas”, was overridden. On the other hand, former President Jair Bolsonaro's veto was maintained against crimes a...
Same old story in April: a too strong tenge suppresses tax collection in 4Q24
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 29 May 2024
The Ministry of Finance published the 4M24 budgetary statistics and it appears that the situation looks largely the same as in 2023. An excessively strong tenge (USD/KZT 443 at the time of writing) curtails the tax revenue collection. In the case of the republican budget (the core constituency in...
Economics: Persistent inflation in Mexico represents challenges for Banxico's monetary policy
MEXICO · Report · 28 May 2024
Last week two very relevant data items were released in terms of expectations for the reference rate for this year. These were the inflation figures for the first half of May and the minutes of the monetary policy meeting of May 9. Consumer inflation for the first half of May 2024 amounted to ...
Beijing's new property policy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 May 2024
Beijing announced new property regulations designed to restart growth in the sector. These regulations include a central government lending program, along with lower interest rates for homebuyers. Unfortunately, these measures will have only a minimal impact on economic growth for two reasons: 1)...
Politics: Post-election scenarios—the governability challenges
MEXICO · Report · 28 May 2024
With the presidential, Chamber of Deputies, and Senate elections a week away, attention is already being focused on possible post-June 2 scenarios. With innumerable undefined factors at play, a post-election conflict is almost inevitable. If the race is close, whoever loses would likely challenge...
Drop off in growth – and remittances
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 May 2024
In Costa Rica, GDP growth slowdown will continue in the next 18 months. According to the Central Bank’s estimates in its April 30th Monetary Policy Report, GDP growth for 2024 and 2025 will be lower. The latest estimates showed that the economy had a mediocre start during Q1. The latest Monetary ...
Not one uncertainty but two
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 May 2024
In democratic elections, people experience uncertainty as to the outcome but certainty as to the process. In non-democratic elections, they experience the opposite. In Venezuela, we’re experiencing both. The electoral field is slanted because the Maduro government controls its shape and makes...
Brazil: Risks on The Rise
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 May 2024
During the last couple of months the perception of Brazil's fiscal and monetary risks deteriorated significantly, a trend that has worsened further recently. Last week the government's overly optimistic projection for the primary balance in 2024 once again postponed the inevitable discussion of t...
Succession in the Lower House and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 May 2024
The government may announce measures aimed at restructuring the economy of Rio Grande do Sul. A second bill on Tax Reform regulation will be sent to the National Congress. The Ministry of Finance and the Senate may discuss compensation methods for payroll tax relief. This week's Talking Points...
The bill on payroll tax exemption compensations will likely be a Provisional Measure, Lula is expected to sanction the accelerated depreciation bill, and the Working Group on Tax Reform regulation will have two meetings today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 May 2024
Yesterday, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), stated that the bill to compensate for the new format of the payroll tax exemption for sectors and municipalities will be a Provisional Measure. He stated that the text is ready, but that he will still negotiate the submission date with th...
New list of infrastructure, longer list of deliverables
PHILIPPINES · Report · 28 May 2024
The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Board, an inter-agency committee chaired by President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., approved on May 16, 2024, a total of P33.3 billion for new infrastructure projects. The approval is in line with the objective of expanding and upgrading the country...
Faster-than-expected inflation deceleration in an environment of economic contraction
ARGENTINA · Report · 28 May 2024
In the third week of May, the trend towards stability in the informal foreign exchange markets was interrupted. There was an increase in the CCL exchange rate and in country risk for the first time since February. These changes may not signify a reversal of trends but rather a circumstantial a...
A stormy meeting in the European Council, once again because of Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 May 2024
The EU's Foreign Affairs Council, the version of the European Council in which member states' foreign ministers participate, discussed EU financial assistance to Ukraine yesterday. As Reuters reported, before and at the meeting, a number of ministers, including those of Germany, Ireland, Lithuani...
Russian mercenaries in the Congo
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 May 2024
Russia increased its number of mercenaries in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 2024. The DRC is a former Belgian colony. Memories of Belgian rule mean that anti-Western sentiment is widespread. Moscow is keen to remind people in the DRC that the Soviet Union agitated for decolonization. ...
Uzbekistan and Russia agree on nuclear energy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 May 2024
On May 27 Putin visited Uzbekistan. Since 2022 he has made very few foreign trips. Russia agreed to spend USD 400 million on projects in the country. This will include building a nuclear power station in Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan is rich in uranium. The President of Uzbekistan and Putin signed sever...