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London business trip impressions by Atilla Yesilada
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Sep 2024 · 2 responses

I’ve toured London-based financial institutions last week for three days, when I met 27 different companies. I asked Global Source Partners NYC to organize this tour, because I had an important message to share: Turkey is more likely than not heading for an early ballot by year-end 2025, give and...

No surprise once again: MNB base rate reduced to 6.5% today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2024

We, and honestly everyone else in the analyst community, have proven right in predicting the MNB's September rate action. At today's monthly rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Council decided to reduce the base rate by another 25 bps: Indeed, forecasting this step was not really that difficult, i...

Lula and Haddad met with rating agencies in New York, VP Alckmin said the LCD could raise R$ 1.5 trillion to finance the industrial sector, and the CAE will hold a public hearing on the impact of Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Sep 2024

President Lula and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad met yesterday with representatives from the rating agencies Moody's and Standard & Poor's (S&P). At the end of the meeting, Haddad said that “the outlook is good.” Yesterday, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin stated that the Development Credit Note...

Economics: Aggregate demand figures show 2Q deepening of deceleration amid weakened private consumption of services, public investment
MEXICO · Report · 24 Sep 2024

Last Wednesday, Inegi published aggregate supply and demand figures for the second quarter of 2024, showing an increase in demand (equal to supply) of 0.9% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. That marked a deceleration with respect to the increases reported for the first quarter (2.4% yoy), and...

HEADS-UP: CHP leader Ozel mindful of Imamoglu being banned from politics
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2024

CHP leader Ozgur Ozel devoted a portion of his press conference on his way to US to the pending appeals court case regarding Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. He must be really concerned about the intermediate appeals court issuing its ruling “soon”, because he added that if that were the case, he w...

The post-election agenda and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2024

President Lula is attending the United Nations General Assembly in the United States. He will be accompanied by Minister Fernando Haddad (Finance), Marina Silva (Environment and Climate Change), Luciana Santos (Science, Technology and Innovation), Esther Dweck (Public Services Management and Inno...

Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Sep 2024

The interest rate differential between Brazil and the United States has widened in recent months, a movement that tends to appreciate the real. However, our exchange rate model indicates that this effect is relatively limited, as is the impact of the decline in the Dollar Index caused by the Fed’...

Politics: Next stop on AMLO’s September reform agenda—the permanent militarization of security, with no limits on presidential power
MEXICO · Report · 23 Sep 2024

With the Chamber of Deputies having passed last week the constitutional reform proposal that definitively transfers the National Guard (NG) to the Ministry of National Defense (Sedena) and the Senate expected to follow suit this week, the stage is set for another codification of President López O...

The Tax Reform regulation bill will block the Senate agenda today, the Ministry of Planning will hold a press conference today, and President Lula attends the UN General Assembly
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2024

Starting today, September 23, the bill (PLP No. 68/24) that establishes the Goods and Services Tax (IBS), the Social Contribution on Goods and Services (CBS), and the Selective Tax (IS)—regulating Tax Reform—will block the Senate's agenda. This morning, representatives from the Ministry of Planni...

Escalation in the North weighs on the shekel
ISRAEL · Report · 23 Sep 2024

1. The shekel continues to weaken, and bond spreads are widening on the back of the escalation of hostilities. 2. Despite steady positive external fundamentals, the shekel has been more impacted by financial outflows. 3. The sharp decline in housing completions will continue to put upward...

Financial outflows have had more of an impact than the CA surplus
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Sep 2024

Geopolitics: The past few days witnessed an escalation in the level of hostilities in the North, in retaliation for Israel’s air attack on top Hezbollah operatives in Beirut and the bipper attack (which Israel has yet to claim responsibility). Limitations were placed north of Haifa (including) re...

The economy this week, in brief
TURKEY · Report · 22 Sep 2024

Service production declined slightly in July, over the previous month. Looking at industrial production, total trade and services indices together suggests, economic activity, broadly speaking, was in a stagnation mode rather than in steep contraction mode – as of July. The overall budget post...

Implications of the US election for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Sep 2024

This article provides an overview of the state of the race as of today (mainly of interest for those outside the US) and considers how the US administration that governs in 2025-28 might impact the region, economically and politically, and how the Gulf states view Trump and Harris and are prepari...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE fiscal surplus soars, UAE advances trade and AI deals, Saudi-Bahrain aluminum partnership considered, Israel detonates Hezbollah comms devices
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Sep 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Most Gulf states cut interest rates by -50bp, though Qatar did -55 and Kuwait -25. * Brent crude rose by 4% to a three-week high of $74 on the back of broad market optimism. * UK and EU officials visited the GCC to advanc...

Prime rate held at 13.0% amid rising inflation risks
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Sep 2024

On September 19th, the NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 13.0% for the second consecutive time, after cutting it by 50 basis points in June. Accelerating inflation (+0.6% m/m and +7.5% y/y in August), the recent turbulence in the FX market, potential tax increases, and rising costs due t...

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