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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Past the bottom of the inflation cycle
HUNGARY · Report · 22 May 2024

The past month has brought about no major surprises in Hungary; everything was largely in line with expectations. The economy is still quite weak, but consumer demand, construction activities and tourism showed distinct signs of consolidation in Q1. However, other areas, such as industrial output...

Slide Presentation: Caucasus and Central Asia - Economic Upswings and Political Prospects
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 May 2024

Get insight into the macroeconomic and political outlook for Armenia, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Azerbaijan with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Caucasus and Central Asia - Economic Upswings and Political Prospects".

Kazakhstan macro: recent balance of payments statistics point to gradual decoupling from Russia
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 May 2024

In recent days, the National Bank of Kazakhstan and the country’s Bureau of National Statistics published their foreign trade and balance of payments statistics for 1Q24, suggesting that the trade surplus widened while the current account deficit narrowed. Imports grew steadily until mid-2023 and...

The MNB base rate was reduced by another 50bps today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 May 2024

At today's monthly rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Council decided to cut the base rate further to 7.25%, exactly as expected. After the meeting, vice governor Virág spoke again, as usual. He painted a positive picture, mentioning a disinflationary global environment, the recent increase in in...

President Boluarte under fire; real GDP to accelerate in Q2; BCRP’s easing cycle nears its end
PERU · Report · 21 May 2024

We cover three topics in this report. First, we discuss the likelihood of Congress impeaching President Dina Boluarte. Then, we evaluate Peru’s economic performance, suggesting that real GDP remained stagnant throughout Q1 2024. We expect a rebound in Q2 2024, on the back of fiscal stimulus, and ...

The Senate may vote on the urgent status of the payroll tax exemption bill, the financial impact of the Five Year PEC will be reviewed, and the House may vote on the Mover bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 May 2024

Today, the Senate may vote on the urgent status request for the bill (PL 1,847/2024) that implements the agreement between Congress and the Executive Office on payroll relief, both for companies and municipalities. The President of the Federal Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), said yesterday that...

Election Monitor IV: Optimistic politicians and unpredictable voters
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 May 2024

In less than 10 days, on May 29, the SA voters will have their day to express their preferences and put an end to the current cacophony of political noise, baseless promises and over-optimistic expectations of many political leaders. Recently, the country’s top court, the Constitutional Court ...

Philippines-China Maritime Row: Getting uglier
PHILIPPINES · Report · 21 May 2024

How China would react to defensive moves of the Philippines is the big question. It would have to rethink its use of powerful lasers and water cannons, for even the US Indo-Pacific Command had at one point expressed the view that if this results in the death of any sailor or military personnel, ...

Serious harm, little gain
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 May 2024

The Law for the Protection of Social Security Pensions from Imperialist Blockade (LPP) went into effect on May 8, 2024, creating a new tax of up to 15% of formal and informal private employers' salary and non-wage bonus payments. The rate was set at 9% by presidential decree on May 16 . The new ...

Ministerial Reform on the radar and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 May 2024

This week we expect the installation of a Working Group in the House to discuss Tax Reform regulation. In the Federal Senate, the bill that deals with tax relief for companies and city halls may be put to a vote. Mayors will march on Brasília. The Petrobras Board may approve the appointment of Ma...

Politics: Races tighten; although Sheinbaum remains in the lead, the scenario of a reduced margin is more likely
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2024

The presidential contest has narrowed recently due to a slight decrease in pro-Sheinbaum voting intentions while Xóchitl Gálvez has held steady, and the only candidate to pick up more support is third place challenger Máynez, although he remains just outside double-digit ranges. One online poll, ...

Extra Caution, Less Cuts
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 May 2024

The current domestic scenario has been characterized by resilient activity, marked by positive surprises at the beginning of the year, and an increasingly tight labor market. In the Copom minutes, the Committee indicates that in this context, combined with the adverse external environment and unm...

Iran’s president dies – what comes next?
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 May 2024

* President Raisi and Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian died in a helicopter crash. * There has been no suggestion of foul play. * Elections are due by July 9, and a handpicked hardliner will win. * This comes as a sensitive time, when Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei may not have long to live a...

What will China do about excess housing?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 May 2024 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The Third Plenum is scheduled to be held in July, much later than the expected October or November date last year. Most analysts believe the long delay suggests the lack of a consensus over how to address weak domestic demand, a rapidly contracting...

The Senate should vote on the payroll tax exemption bill, the Working Group on Tax Reform regulation may be installed this week, and the TRE-RJ should review the impeachment case against the governor of Rio de Janeiro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 May 2024

This week, the Senate will vote on Senator Efraim Filho's (União-PB) bill to exempt payroll taxes for 17 sectors of the economy. According to the agreement with the government, there will be a gradual resumption of the tax at a rate of 5% in 2025, 10% in 2026, 15% in 2027, and 20% in 2028. The in...

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