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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Nov 7 -
Brazil Economics databank Nov 15
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Central America databank Oct 31
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Chile databank Oct 23
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 6
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 20
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 22
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Hungary databank Nov 21
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India databank Oct 30
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Mexico databank Nov 15
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Oct 15
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Philippines databank Nov 8
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Russia Economics databank Nov 13
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South Africa databank Nov 1
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Turkey databank Sep 18
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Ukraine databank Nov 12
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Venezuela databank Nov 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA IN 2025: HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE?...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Politics: Excesses of power in electoral times as AMLO targets widow who dared to criticize his government
MEXICO · Report · 13 May 2024
It has long been noted that President López Obrador's personal style of governing is characterized by an intolerance of criticism and a highly inflated sense of his historical importance. As we near the end of his administration, more and more balance sheets of his government have begun to appear...
Russian macro: GDP can grow above 4% in 2024 if PM’s 1Q24 number is correct
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 13 May 2024
On May 12, the recently re-appointed PM Mr. Mishustin, while speaking in the Duma, announced that in 1Q24, the country’s GDP grew by 5.4% y-o-y. The number came from the latest Economics Ministry publication. Interestingly, the Ministry upgraded its 2024 growth forecast at the end of April to 2.8...
The government reached an agreement on payroll tax relief, the Federal Government is expected to announce a debt renegotiation plan for Rio de Grande do Sul, and Congress is preparing for the Working Groups on Tax Reform regulation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2024
Last week, the government reached an agreement on payroll tax relief for 17 sectors of the economy. Because the matter has gone to court, it needs to be approved by the Supreme Federal Court (STF). Regarding the state of public emergency in Rio de Grande do Sul (RS), the Federal Government is exp...
Russian Defense Minister replaced
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 May 2024
On May 12 it was announced that Sergei Shoigu has been removed as Defense Minister and has been appointed the Secretary of the Security Committee instead. Because of his new post it is clear that Shoigu is not disgraced. However, his new post is seen as a non-job. There have been significant prob...
Towards a new normal in politics?
TURKEY · Report · 12 May 2024
The stunning defeat of Messrs. Erdogan and Bahceli in municipal elections upset the political equilibrium. All actors, led by Erdogan, are scrambling to reposition to deal with the new reality. It is possible for the quest for a new equilibrium to result in a more normal, democratic and less xeno...
Armenia rocked by protests against ceding land to Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 May 2024
On May 11 peace talks between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia ended in Kazakhstan. The talks did not result in a treaty and both parties say they have not agreed on certain points.In Armenia there have been large scale demonstrations against handing over territory to Azerbaijan. T...
Ukraine to receive more arms
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 May 2024
On May 10 the US said it will give Ukraine another USD 400 million worth of military aid in addition to the USD 60 billion package passed in April 2024. Zelensky stated that Ukraine faces a very hard fight in the east. Russia regularly brags of taking villages however, it is clear that Russia is ...
Kazakhstan keeps utilizing budgeted transfers well ahead of schedule implying that tax revenues were poor in April
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 10 May 2024
The Ministry of Finance reported that in 4M24, the National Fund grew from $63.7 bln as of January 1, 2024, to $64.9 bln as of May 1. In reality, it doesn’t mean that the authorities continued to build up international reserves, as in KZT terms, the fund shrank over the same period from KZT29.115...
PM of Russia reappointed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 May 2024
On May 10, as we predicted, Mikhail Mishustin was given his job back by Putin. The State Duma voted for him with an overwhelming majority in favor, none against but there were some abstentions. Mishustin had to stand down as President Putin began his 5th term. Putin prizes loyalty above all else....
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi Q1 deficit, UAE trade talks with New Zealand, Israel assaults Rafah and bans Al Jazeera
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 May 2024 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ for the first time published a compensation plan for countries exceeding their quotas. * Israel began its Rafah assault, despite US opposition, after rejecting a Hamas ceasefire proposal. * Israel banned Qatari news...
A political victory amidst the darkness
ECUADOR · Report · 10 May 2024
The past referendum and public consultation gave President Daniel Noboa a victory on nine out of the 11 questions proposed. This was a setback for the Correistas, who were campaigning for a “no” vote on all the questions. The winning questions all concerned crime control measures, while the two r...
Fiscal deficit expands on rapid expenditure growth
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 May 2024
The fiscal deficit in the LTM rose to 7% GDP in April from 6.2% in March, but excluding the seasonal delay in revenues, the deficit stands at 6.7%. Spending is up 36% y/y in Jan-April while revenues are down 2.2% (nominal). We note that expenditure not related to the war is up 11.7%, which we see...
Inflation's downtrend ended in April, just as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 May 2024
The headline rate of CPI-inflation was 0.7% mom, 3.7% yoy in April, the latter rising marginally, from 3.6% yoy in March. Core inflation still dropped, to 4.1% yoy in April from 4.4% yoy in the previous month. Non-fuel inflation also decreased, to 3.7% yoy from March's 4.1%. Consumer prices rose ...
Congress overrode most of Lula’s vetoes to the Budget, Lula’s veto on the Betting Law was also overridden, and Haddad announced an agreement on the payroll tax relief issue
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 May 2024
The Plenary of the Congress overrode most of President Lula's vetoes to the 2024 Budget Law, increasing the value of permanent committee funds by R$4.2 billion—from R$11 billion to R$15.2 billion. Legislators also overrode Lula’s veto on the Betting Law, specifically the section on how Income Tax...
Watch the (monthly) pace and hope for the best
TURKEY · Report · 09 May 2024
The CBRT released the second Inflation Report of the year with a nice and comprehensive presentation by Governor Fatih Karahan (see link here for the transcript, here for the presentation). We provide some relatively detailed highlights on the presentation and the Q&A session, followed by comment...