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Will sanctions against Chinese banks work?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 May 2024

The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. is considering imposing sanctions on Chinese banks that are supporting the export of goods to for Russia’s war in Ukraine. The State Department has denied the reports but it would be logical for the U.S. to use its dominance of the US dollar financia...

France and the UK taking bigger risks to aid Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 May 2024

On May 2 the President of France said that his country might send troops to Ukraine if Russia broke through Ukrainian lines and Kyiv requested such help. Since early 2024 President Macron has mooted the possibility of Western troops in Ukraine. But most NATO countries said they will never deploy ...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE boosts oil capacity, ADQ’s inaugural bond, Saudi non-oil growth slows, Oman awards green hydrogen blocks
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 May 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil had its worst week in six months, dipping by about -7% on weak data and worries about rates. * Another Gaza ceasefire/hostage deal is being considered, but Netanyahu says he will assault Rafah anyway. * S&P warns that...

Webinar Replay: Panama and Dominican Republic Elections Outlook
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 03 May 2024

How will Panama and the Dominican Republic's 2024 elections play out, both in terms of their presidencies and the composition of their legislating bodies? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on Panama and the Dominican Republic's upcoming elections and how they will shape t...

Inflation back to a monthly pace of circ. 3%
TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2024

Consumer prices increased by 3.2%, m/m, in April, somewhat lower than consensus, with the 12-month rate rising further to 69.8% from 68.5% in March. Domestic-PPI inflation posted 3.6%, which drove the 12-month rate to 55.7% from 51.5% a month earlier, as the PPI-CPI inflation gap, though remains ...

The São Paulo City Council approved the privatization of Sabesp, next week will be busy in Brasilia, and Congress is expected to vote on presidential vetoes next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 May 2024

The São Paulo City Council approved the bill that authorizes it to join the privatization of Sabesp, the state company responsible for water and sewage services in the city. There were 37 votes in favor and 17 against. Next week will be busy in Brasília. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (P...

Essential CIS Politics: May 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 May 2024

* Russia has gained ground in Ukraine and hit cities with drones and missiles. * Ukraine passed a law allowing more men to be drafted. * Russian peacekeepers are leaving Armenia as the country improves relations with Azerbaijan by ceding land. * Georgia passes foreign agents’ law despite ...

Moody’s increased the outlook for Brazil's sovereign debt from stable to positive, Lula broke electoral rules by calling for his supporters to vote for Boulos in São Paulo, and the São Paulo City Council votes on the Sabesp privatization
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 May 2024

Yesterday, the rating agency Moody's raised the outlook for Brazil's medium and long-term sovereign debt from stable to positive. The company, however, maintained its long-term issuer and unsecured government bond ratings at Ba2. Yesterday, trade unions organized an event for Labor Day. Lula expl...

Current account deficit narrowed in 1Q24
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 May 2024

According to the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the current account narrowed in 1Q24 to about $0.89 bn, while in 2023 its quarterly deficit varied from $1.6 bn to $3.4 bn. According to recent revisions the current account deficit reached almost $8.66 bn last year.In 1Q24, the trade surplus accounte...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 May 2024

Apr 17 Kazakhstan Petrochemical Industries: A purchase of 40% in a polypropylene production project in the Atyrau region (Western Kazakhstan) Kazakhstan Petrochemical Industries Inc. by the Russian company SIBUR was finally approved. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan and Russia signed an agreement on t...

The Central Bank maintains the monetary policy interest rate unchanged in May 2024
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 May 2024

For the sixth consecutive month since Dec 2023, the monetary policy interest rate will remain unchanged. In May 2024, the monetary policy interest rate will remain at 7.0% annually. Also, the permanent liquidity expansion facility rate (1-day Repos) and the interest-bearing deposit rate will rema...

15 minutes of fame for everyone
COLOMBIA · Report · 30 Apr 2024 · 1 response

The drastic reduction of Colombia’s external imbalance, in the last quarter of 2022 and all of 2023, was a most welcome development. For starters, monetary policy decisions are no longer facing the two-headed hydra of inflation plus excessive domestic demand. Furthermore, FDI is comfortably finan...

A definitive new president
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Apr 2024

Indonesia’s Constitutional Court made a ruling on April 22, 2024, rejecting the challenges from the losing presidential candidates for a re-run of the presidential election. With that ruling, the Election Committee made its final decision on the presidential election result, with Prabowo Subianto...

Padilha meets with Senate leaders to discuss the joint session of Congress on vetoes, the CCJ should vote on the bill that resumes the mandatory insurance for vehicles, and the Senate should vote on the Perse bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Apr 2024

The Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha, meets with Senate leaders to negotiate vetoes that should be analyzed in a joint session of Congress next week. There was going to be a session of Congress last week to analyze vetoes, but it was postponed due to a lack of consensus. The...

GDP somewhat stronger than expected in Q1, real wage growth very high in February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Apr 2024

GDP grew by 0.8% qoq, 1.7% yoy on seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis in Q1, according to KSH's first estimate. Both figures represent material strengthening from Q4's upwardly revised 0% qoq, 0.5% yoy growth data. However, all this was only a moderate surprise: analysts, including us, expecte...

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