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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 15 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank Mar 31
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Mar 5
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Dominican Republic databank Mar 20
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Ecuador databank Mar 21
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Gulf Countries databank Apr 17
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Hungary databank Mar 21
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India databank Mar 24
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Mexico databank Mar 25
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Mar 5
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Philippines databank Apr 8
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Poland databank Feb 26
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank Apr 7
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Turkey databank Dec 24
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Ukraine databank Mar 6
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Venezuela databank Feb 4
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR: CHINA’S OUTLOOK IN THE TIME OF TRADE WARS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
No tangible gains yet, it seems
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2024
Consumer prices rose by 2.5% in August, broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month rate declining sharply as anticipated to 52%, down from 61.8% in July, on the back of powerful base effects. Domestic-PPI inflation was 1.7%, m/m, which reduced the 12-month rate to 35.8% from 41.4% a mon...
Senate leaders will meet to set the date for Galípolo’s confirmation hearing, Minister Tebet should present the 2025 Budget proposal to Pacheco, and Lira continues the search for his candidate in the House succession
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Sep 2024
Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) and the President of the Senate's Economic Affairs Committee (CAE), Vanderlan Cardoso (PSD-GO), are expected to meet today to discuss the date for Gabriel Galípolo's confirmation hearing, who has been appointed by President Lula to the presidency of the C...
Q2 GDP data is not quite as poor as it looks at first glance
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Sep 2024
Detailed GDP data for Q2 2024 is out today. The preliminary report of -0.2% qoq, 1.3% yoy growth (or the lack of it) has not changed. So clearly, the recovery seen in Q1 did not continue, which has proven to be a reason for a great deal of disappointment within the government and also in the priv...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Sep 2024
OVERVIEW THE RIGHT STUFF VERSUS THE EASY STUFF The highlight of the month was the relatively fast change in the pricing of monetary policy. Partly due to the harsh language expressed in the July Copom minutes and partly because of statements from members of the Board of Directors (notably ...
Economics: August indicators confirm significant deceleration, Pemex deterioration and risky monetary stance
MEXICO · Report · 03 Sep 2024
Economic activity continued to slow in recent months as evidenced by a slight downward revision of second quarter GDP results, the onset of a weakening trend that could worsen should potential risks on both the external and internal fronts materialize. The greatest threat domestically involve...
Politics: Morena consolidates congressional majority in push to rush through sweeping reforms in first days of new Congress
MEXICO · Report · 03 Sep 2024
Late last week, the Federal Electoral Tribunal signed off on the composition of chambers of Congress previously approved by the INE, sealing a qualified majority for Morena and its allies in the Chamber of Deputies with 72.8% of the lower chamber’s seats. Although the incumbent camp was left thr...
Azerbaijan holds parliamentary elections, including for the first time in Nagorno-Karabakh
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Sep 2024
On September 1, Azerbaijan held parliamentary elections. They were originally supposed to be held in November but were brought forward due to Azerbaijan’s high-profile hosting of COP-29. This was the first Azerbaijani election to include the reclaimed territories in Nagorno-Karabakh. 42,000 Azerb...
Activity flat in Q2, broadly as expected
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Sep 2024
The Turkish economy grew by 2.5% annually in the second quarter of the year, somewhat lower than expectations, but expanded slightly over the previous quarter (0.1%), which was somewhat better than expectations – including ours -- of modest contraction (Graph 1). As usual, we focus on the sequent...
Where were we?
TURKEY · Report · 01 Sep 2024
The politics author dedicates his contribution to the first post-holiday Weekly Tracker to going over important events that transpired in August. Doubts about Simsek’s job security linger, while there is little reason to believe the soon-to-be-unveiled revised Medium Term Economic Program will co...
High hopes for Guatemala, as neighbors struggle
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Aug 2024
In Guatemala, private sector confidence has improved since President Bernardo Arevalo took office in January, and expectations within the country are high. In Bank of Guatemala surveys, most respondents said they expected the economic situation to improve in the next six months. Arevalo is workin...
BoI increasingly concerned regarding fiscal policy
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Aug 2024
1. Rates remained on hold this week, coupled with a hawkish tone regarding inflationary risks and fiscal concerns. 2. Private consumption rebounded in July, supporting tax revenues but also fueling inflationary pressure. 3. The MoF will lengthen the average duration of bond issuance in Sept...
GULF WEEKLY: Moody’s raises Oman’s outlook to Positive, Kuwait has a new finance minister, oil falls despite outages in Libya
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Aug 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil is trading down this week despite disruption to Libyan production because of a new political crisis. * PIF renewed a $15bn syndicated credit facility for 3-5 years. * India wants to renegotiate its UAE Cepa to mitigat...
The government will submit the 2025 budget proposal to Congress today, the STF has given a 10-day extension on the deadline for the parliamentary fund transfers issue, and Bolsonaro is organizing a protest on September 7
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Aug 2024
Today, the government will submit the 2025 budget proposal to the National Congress. This week, to balance the accounts, the Ministry of Planning announced a thorough review of social and pension programs, which could result in cuts of R$ 25.9 billion. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) has decided ...
Essential CIS Politics: September 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 30 Aug 2024
* Ukraine makes an incursion into Russia, while Russia advances in Donbas. * Ukraine enters restricted default. * Georgia plans to ban opposition parties. * The USA plans to sanction Russia further. * Founder of Telegram arrested in France.
Rates on hold on inflation risks and fiscal concerns
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Aug 2024
Geopolitics: Although the intensity of the war in Gaza appears to be winding down, a cease-fire and hostage return remain elusive. Netanyahu insists on maintaining a presence on the Philadelphia Corridor in order to prevent renewed transfer of weapons from Egypt into Gaza. Negotiations are contin...