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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

China's weak hand
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 Dec 2024

China’s economy is likely performing worse than the official data suggests, including in both the private and state sector. For structural reasons, any stimulus is likely to be ineffective. Given the weak economic data points, along with the difficult trade environment among China’s main customer...

Kazakhstan macro: The tenge is searching for equilibrium but the journey is not over yet
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 19 Dec 2024

The Kazakh economy performed well in November, as the short-term indicator grew y-o-y by 5.6% in 11M24. Agriculture (up by 13.4%), construction (up by 10.3%), and retail sales (up by 9.3%) were the fastest-growing segments (all figures are y-o-y). Meanwhile, in November alone, retail sales increa...

Congress approved the Budget Guidelines Law, the House approved the edits to the fiscal package, and the Senate may analyze the fiscal package today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Dec 2024

Yesterday, the National Congress approved the 2025 Budget Guidelines Law. The text maintained the fiscal target of a zero deficit for 2025, with a tolerance margin of 0.25% of GDP. Regarding the package, yesterday the House concluded the edits to the supplementary bill (PLP) for the fiscal packag...

In bad need of a fuse
PHILIPPINES · Report · 19 Dec 2024

With the impeachment complaints having been filed against the Philippines' Vice President Sara Duterte, it is expected of Congress, in exercising its power of impeachment, to investigate the issues of public concern not only because the matters in question put forward involve issues of governance...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Dec 2024

The FX market remained volatile, and in the past two weeks, the ruble fluctuated within the range from USD/RUB 99 to USD/RUB 106. Chances to see the ruble close to the upper boundary by the year-end are high. These developments fueled demand for bonds nominated in hard currency. Since the beginni...

Sitting on a see-saw: Hungary’s credit rating outlook went up and down at the same time
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Dec 2024

Turning to the last month of 2024, Moody’s and Fitch Ratings changed their outlook on exactly the same sovereign debt rating in the opposite direction within just a few days’ time. In our report, we go over the background and the details of these half-empty, half-full kind of decisions. The US...

The House approved the Tax Reform regulation bill, the first bill of the fiscal package was approved, and the Joint Budget Committee approved the LDO
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Dec 2024

Yesterday, the Lower House approved the bill that regulates Tax Reform, PLP 68 of 2024. The final version reversed some changes made in the Senate. The government achieved a partial victory with the approval of the Complementary Bill of the fiscal package. This is one of three bills comprising th...

Hope due to the partial end of blackouts
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Dec 2024

President Noboa offered to end the electricity blackouts by December 20, to the joy of almost all Ecuadorians, who have endured harsh day-to-day circumstances since last September. However, the six major electricity-consuming corporations, including steel manufacturers, mining companies and Petro...

Assessing Argentina's country risk
ARGENTINA · Report · 17 Dec 2024

This is the last of three reports that discuss an equal number of economic variables whose seemingly excellent performance against the odds have investors scratching their heads. The two previous reports were about inflation and the FX gap. In this one, I delve into external solvency or, as it is...

The dance of solitude
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Dec 2024

The Copom minutes, a laborious document, revealed a worrisome view of inflation. In the Committee's words: "that a further deterioration in the inflation scenario has occurred, as reflected in inflation expectations and projections. It concluded that the shorter-term determinants – such as the...

Boluarte risks impeachment; growth likely to slow in 2025, with less policy stimulus
PERU · Report · 17 Dec 2024

In this forecast report, we cover three topics. First, we discuss possible political scenarios; then we discuss our 2025 forecasts for the economy, government finances and the balance of payments; and finally we discuss our market forecasts. Our forecasts generally project greater risk, partly ar...

Today's Monetary Council meeting went pretty much as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Dec 2024

Actually, it went almost exactly as analysts, nearly in unison, predicted on Portfolio.hu yesterday. 1. The base rate was kept unchanged at 6.5%. A 'great majority' of the Council voted for holding the rate, meaning that there was one vote for a small rate cut, just as it happened in November.2. ...

Robust economic growth mitigates fiscal risks
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 17 Dec 2024 · 1 response

Economic activity continued its roller coaster pattern in 2024, alternating between months of y/y growth below 5% and months above. Cumulative y/y growth remained at 5.1% on average from June to October. In November both headline inflation (3.18% y/y) and core inflation (3.47% y/y) remained wi...

Unless Gandalf casts a spell, peace prospects look dim
UKRAINE · Report · 17 Dec 2024

Two key questions are on the agenda: what U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will propose as a peace deal, and what the response will be if the proposed solution sacrifices Ukraine’s sovereignty. Any plan requiring Ukraine to recognize Russian-occupied territories or to compromise its sovereignty ...

Economics: 3Q and October employment numbers reveal deep downturn
MEXICO · Report · 17 Dec 2024

Employment numbers at the third quarter and October of this year continue reflecting the downturn that began in the second quarter, in line with the economic growth posted in the same period. Wages have experienced a very slight downturn, also since the second quarter, but continue to grow at rel...

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