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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Nov 7 -
Brazil Economics databank Nov 15
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Central America databank Oct 31
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Chile databank Oct 23
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 6
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 20
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 22
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Hungary databank Nov 21
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India databank Oct 30
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Mexico databank Nov 15
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Oct 15
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Philippines databank Nov 8
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Russia Economics databank Nov 13
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South Africa databank Nov 1
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Turkey databank Sep 18
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Ukraine databank Nov 12
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Venezuela databank Nov 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA IN 2025: HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE?...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Russia and Ukraine exchange children
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2024
On April 24 the Russian Children's Rights Commissioner said that Russia would return 29 children to Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine giving Russia back 19 children. Maria Lvova Belova, who announced the deal, was indicted by the International Criminal Court for child abduction in 2023. Qatar brok...
José Raúl Mulino could run next week…the Supreme Court hinted yesterday
PANAMA · In Brief · 26 Apr 2024
On April 25, just 10 days before the elections, Supreme Court Justice Olmedo Arrocha, who is handling the case of the unconstitutionality lawsuit against the Electoral Tribunal (TE) decision that allowed José Raúl Mulino to run as a presidential candidate, issued a public statement. In this state...
GULF WEEKLY: Abu Dhabi issues $5bn bonds, transport drives UAE Q3 GDP, Saudi hosts Iranian pilgrims, Oman & UAE sign investment deals
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Apr 2024 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia hosted the first formal Iranian Umrah pilgrimage in nine years. * Saudi Arabia lifted its borrowing plan by $14bn, implying a larger than budgeted deficit. * PIF is investing in Saudi Telecom’s tower assets a...
NBU cuts prime rate to 13.5% following approval of US support package
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Apr 2024
The NBU Board reduced the prime rate by 1.0 ppt to 13.5%, effective April 26. This decision was facilitated by a steady slowdown in consumer inflation (+0.5% m/m or +3.2% y/y in March), a $9.3 billion foreign currency inflow in March, and the recently approved $61 billion aid package from the US....
Kazakhstan macro: the budget still lacks tax revenue as the tenge remains strong
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 26 Apr 2024
Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance published the budgetary statistics for 1Q24, and it appears that the general trends are the same as in 2023—the tax revenue flow remains well behind the plan, while transfers to the republican budget from the National Fund are well ahead of it. The latter factor i...
The Extraordinary Secretary for Tax Reform outlined the details of the regulation of Tax Reform, Justice Zanin suspended sections of the law that extended the payroll tax exemption, and Wednesday, May 1, is a holiday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Apr 2024
Yesterday, the Extraordinary Secretary for Tax Reform, Bernardo Appy, gave a long interview to explain the details of the bill submitted by the government to the National Congress on the regulation of Tax Reform. In other news, Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Cristiano Zanin responded to the ...
Webinar Replay - Turkey: Fundamental change or business as usual?
TURKEY · Report · 26 Apr 2024
What does Erdogan's defeat in the municipal elections mean for Turkey? In response, will he rely on pragmatism or return to heterodoxy? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the implications of Erdogan's political losses for Turkey's macroeconomic and political outlook.
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia and Georgia rising
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 26 Apr 2024
Once per year, we conduct one of our favorite exercises in the CIS space, which encompasses our target Caucasus and Central Asia region. Based on the April WEO, which has final 2023 PPP-based GDP data, we calculate per-capita GDP levels and 10-year GDP growth rates in order to rank individual eco...
A gentle drizzle to calm the ongoing drought
ECUADOR · In Brief · 25 Apr 2024
The Republic closed an extended facility agreement with the IMF for the next 48 months for $4.0 billion. As of last March, we estimated needs of at least $3.5b to give some breathing space to the tight fiscal situation. This estimate was made before the new challenges Ecuador is facing due to the...
Ukraine receives first US ammo for months
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Apr 2024
On April 24 the US dispatched the first installment of the new aid package. The aid package passed the US Senate by an overwhelming majority, and Biden signed it. Within hours aid was on the way to Ukraine. It comes not a moment too soon for Ukraine. The US had identified the munitions and assets...
The government submitted the bills on Tax Reform regulation, Congress postponed the analysis of presidential vetoes, and the AGU filed a lawsuit in the STF against the payroll tax relief bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Apr 2024
Yesterday, the government submitted a bill to the National Congress that establishes the Tax on Goods and Services—the IBS, whose responsibility is shared between the states, municipalities, and the Federal District; and the Social Contribution on Goods and Services—the CBS, whose responsibility ...
MPC: Back to a wait-and-see mode
TURKEY · Report · 25 Apr 2024
As expected, the CBRT/MPC kept interest rates unchanged today, leaving the policy rate (one-week repo) at 50%. The statement was also little changed, still speaking of ongoing resilience in domestic demand and upside risks to inflation.
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Apr 2024
In the past couple of weeks, the USD/RUB fluctuated in a narrow range, influenced by various factors. On one hand, the current account looked wide enough in 1Q24. On the other hand, the exporters face problems with repatriating export earnings to Russia. In this situation, the authorities decided...
Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan solve border dispute
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Apr 2024
On April 15 Kyrgyzstan gave 208 hectares to Uzbekistan in return for receiving the same amount of territory from Uzbekistan. Ever since the breakup of the USSR a border dispute has simmered. There were Kyrgyz exclaves entirely surrounded by Uzbekistan. The Kyrgyz people in the former exclaves hav...
Industrial growth moderated in March but remained good enough
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2024
Rosstat reported that industrial output increased in March by 4.0% y-o-y, which brought the 1Q24 y-o-y tally to 5.6% (y-o-y growth was stronger in February due to a leap year). Seasonally/calendar-adjusted industrial output increased by 0.1% m-o-m. The mining segment grew y-o-y by 0.4% and 1.1% i...