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Economics: Toll of peso depreciation on public finances and inflation sets a shaky stage for the incoming presidential administration
MEXICO · Report · 10 Sep 2024

After a relatively long period of stability following the Covid pandemic there has been a significant depreciation of the exchange rate, beginning the day after the June 2 elections and accelerating considerably in recent weeks. A series of internal factors have contributed to the softening of...

Why is the forint weaker early this week?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Sep 2024

The forint spent the past one-month period in the state of spectacular stability, the EURHUF hovering in a narrow range between 390-395, a level which everyone appeared to be satisfied with. But starting last night, it suddenly weakened to EURHUF 396-398, which is no big move but a bit unusual. A...

The president highlighted key initiatives of his government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Sep 2024

The House is preparing for the last concentrated effort week before the municipal elections. A one-week-per-month system for discussing priority issues was implemented due to the October elections. In September, the expectation is for votes on issues considered crucial for both the government and...

Politics: Judicial Reform and moves to eliminate autonomous agencies spark widespread opposition
MEXICO · Report · 09 Sep 2024 · 1 response

Although President Lopez Obrador and President-Elect Claudia Sheinbaum feel, perhaps justly, that they have wind in their sails following Morena’s impressive showing on a national and local level in the June 2 elections, opposition to their moves aiming to eliminate the Autonomous Constitutional ...

Running Out Of Options
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Sep 2024 · 1 response

In its last Copom meeting, the Central Bank forecasted inflation at 3.2% in the 12-month period to March 2026, assuming an unchanged policy rate. Since then, economic activity has been stronger than expected, accelerating in the second quarter, while the unemployment rate and capacity utilization...

Inflation is declining, economic activity is slowly recovering but foreign reserves are depleting
ARGENTINA · Report · 09 Sep 2024

Inflation has stabilized between 3% and 4% monthly, and the government anticipates a further decline. Economic activity is showing signs of a slow but promising recovery. Real wages for workers and retirees are improving, and consumer credit is beginning to reemerge. Furthermore, the governme...

Some issues in the labor market
PHILIPPINES · Report · 09 Sep 2024

Some economists and market watchers have raised the issue that when inflation rate was 4.4% in July 2024 in the Philippines, unemployment rate was 3.1%. However, when inflation rate decelerated to 3.3% in August 2024, unemployment rate was reported to have swelled to 4.7%. This is not exactly inc...

Sequestering "unused" funds, a case of bad fiscal management
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Sep 2024

It is easy to abstract the issue surrounding the Philippines’ Department of Finance circular directing all government owned and controlled corporations (GOCCs) including the Philippine Health Insurance Corporation (PhilHealth) to remit what it called excess funds back to the Bureau of the Treasur...

The House will hold a week of concentrated voting efforts, Bolsonaro held a demonstration on Saturday mainly against STF Justice Alexandre de Moraes, and the CAE will hold a hearing on the suspension of X and Starlink
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Sep 2024

The Lower House is entering another concentrated week of legislative activities. On the agenda are votes on topics considered crucial for both the government and Congress, such as: reinstating payroll taxes; remaining amendments to Complementary Bill No. 108/24, which regulates the Management Com...

Wage pressure remains strong
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Sep 2024

1. The private sector is less optimistic regarding future growth. 2. Rapid wage growth remains an inflationary risk. 3. Israeli institutions have increased their exposure to both foreign assets and to FX.

Expect falling headline inflation data for August tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Sep 2024

KSH is set to publish its CPI-inflation data for August tomorrow. Essentially everyone expects that the headline rate will move downwards from July's actual 4.1% yoy. The MNB, as we reported earlier, predicted 3.4% yoy in its Q2 inflation report (true, that forecast also included 3.8% yoy for Jul...

Ukraine engages in government reshuffle amidst Russian advance in Donbass
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Sep 2024

On September 4, Zelensky reshuffled his cabinet. Many ministers resigned pre-emptively. The move came amidst rumors that a reshuffle was imminent, so members of the government were prepared. That day, the head of the ruling Servant of the People Party, David Arakhamia, wrote on Telegram that over...

Eventful days ahead
TURKEY · Report · 08 Sep 2024

In a brief X post, President Erdogan pledged full support for the newly revised Medium-Term Program (MTP), indirectly expressing his trust in Minister Simsek, which ought to quell rumors about his resignation. CHP’s Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu believes he will soon be banned from politics. I...

The STF suspended the ruling on the Reintegra program, Bolsonaro will hold a demonstration in São Paulo, and the House will hold a week of concentrated voting efforts next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Sep 2024

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) has suspended the ruling on Reintegra, a federal program aimed at returning part of the accumulated tax residues from the production of goods for export. Before the suspension, Justice Gilmar Mendes cast a vote to uphold the rule that allows the Executive Branch to...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ delays taper, UAE revises up 2023 fiscal surplus, Bahrain taxes multinationals, Adnoc and PIF issue bonds
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Sep 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ delayed tapering, cutting Q4 output by 450k b/d, as oil dipped to the lowest in over a year. * PMIs rebounded in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but Kuwait’s fell into contraction. * The IMF’s Saudi Article IV revi...

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