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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Aug 21 -
Brazil Economics databank Aug 18
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Central America databank Jul 31
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Chile databank Jul 17
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Aug 1
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Dominican Republic databank Aug 21
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Ecuador databank Jul 22
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Gulf Countries databank Aug 15
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Hungary databank Aug 19
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Aug 14
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Philippines databank Aug 6
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Poland databank Jul 16
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Russia Economics databank Aug 14
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South Africa databank Aug 21
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Turkey databank Aug 11
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Aug 21
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT: BRAZIL...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
One last vote under a hawkish Central Bank Board
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025
A more dovish Central Bank Board is on the way, as President Petro announced that Laura Moisá and César Giraldo will become members of the Board. Ms. Moisá, an economist from Universidad Nacional de Colombia and a PhD in Economic Development from Unicamp in Brazil, is currently the Deputy Preside...
December CPI release: a downward surprise
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025 · 1 response
The consumer price index reading for December was down by 0.3%, below market expectations for an index between 0.0% and 0.1%. This brought the annual inflation rate down to 3.2% from 3.4% in November, with core inflation (seasonally adjusted, excluding housing, fruits, and vegetables) at 3.1%—sli...
EU growth champion performs but challenges loom
POLAND · Report · 15 Jan 2025
Poland’s growth over the last three decades has been unprecedented at around 4% on average. It has been driven by fast productivity growth, trade liberalization, FDI inflows, competitive wage levels, diversified industry, a large pool of competent workers, as well as a stable institutional enviro...
Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions flare again as Aliyev claims to be preparing a “Special Military Operation”
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 15 Jan 2025
- Baku threatens to launch a “Special Military Operation” against “fascist” Armenia. - A video of former President of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan talking about ethnic cleansing during the First Nagorno Karabakh War triggered outrage in Azerbaijan. - Armenia’s leaning towards the West provokes a...
As December inflation meets expectations, BCRA announces it will reduce crawl to 1% in February
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 15 Jan 2025
Yesterday, INDEC unveiled the December inflation number. It came at 2.7% m/m, in line with expectations, bringing 2004 annual inflation to 118%, down from 211% in 2023. The satisfactory headline December print encouraged BCRA to announce a reduction in the exchange rate crawl from 2% to 1% starti...
High CPI-inflation data for December: unexpected and unusual
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Jan 2025
For December, everyone expected a sharp upturn by the headline CPI-inflation rate from 3.7% yoy in November: analysts predicted 4.4% yoy, the MNB expected 4.3% yoy, the latter together with unchanged 4.4% yoy for core inflation, fuel prices pushing up the headline rate. However, the actual jump b...
Economics: Indicators for October and November confirm a more pronounced deceleration likely to extend well into 2025
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jan 2025 · 1 response
The seasonally adjusted 0.3% yoy drop in activity the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) registered for October marked its first outright contraction since early 2021. The latest result marked an extension of the slowing trend that began in early 2Q 2024. Services continued to decelerat...
President Lula signing two significant bills and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jan 2025
President Lula (PT) will sign two significant bills this week: one addressing the renegotiation of state debts with the federal government and the other concerning the regulation of Tax Reform. Both are expected to be sanctioned with vetoes. On Thursday, January 16, Arko Advice is hosting a debat...
The ANC’s January 8th statement post-2024 elections and coalition governance
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Jan 2025
President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered the African National Congress's (ANC) January 8th Statement this past weekend, marking the party's 113th anniversary. This address came in the wake of the 2024 general elections, where the ANC, for the first time since 1994, failed to secure an outright majorit...
The consequences of reaching above the limit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Jan 2025
The reduction in the trade balance surplus in 2024 is largely explained by import performance. We estimated a model to project the growth of imported quantum, aiming to analyze its relationship with economic growth and movements in the real exchange rate. The model indicates that a 1% increase in...
Politics: Sheinbaum crafts a new and different public security policy
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jan 2025
Although economic issues remain the main challenge Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidential administration faces, public security is a close second and perhaps more daunting problem and could be its Achilles heel. What appears clear is that former President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador’s policy of “hugs ...
Ukraine tried to hit the TurkStream gas pipeline, so far unsuccessfully
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Jan 2025 · 1 response
In recent news of the business as usual category, retail sales grew 0.6% mom, 4.4% yoy in November, marking impressively strengthening consumer demand growth, net fiscal revenue from VAT jumped 16.5% yoy in the same month and 7.5% yoy in January-November, and November industrial output was down 1...
The BoI stressed demand concerns rather than declining supply constraints
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Jan 2025
1. A cautious monetary stance will most likely postpone easing until end-May. 2. The BoI dilemma centers around the concern regarding a post-war consumption surge, a concern we think is exaggerated. 3. Business confidence improved in December due to the ceasefire, while consumers remain pe...
Reconciliation talks with Kurds pick up pace
TURKEY · Report · 12 Jan 2025
The politics author attempts to tell the convoluted story of how President Erdogan and his partner Mr. Bahceli are planning to achieve their ultimate aim of securing eligibility for the former for a third run at the presidency. It is going to be through a new Constitution. With all opposition par...
The BoI appears more concerned about excess demand on inflation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Jan 2025
Geopolitics: The Northern border remains calm with the cease-fire holding. The Israeli air force with the US/GB attacked military and infrastructure in Yemen. Some drones from Yemen were shot down last week but no sirens went off. Low-level hostilities continue in Gaza. The Israeli negotiating te...