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Congress overrode most of Lula’s vetoes to the Budget, Lula’s veto on the Betting Law was also overridden, and Haddad announced an agreement on the payroll tax relief issue
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 May 2024

The Plenary of the Congress overrode most of President Lula's vetoes to the 2024 Budget Law, increasing the value of permanent committee funds by R$4.2 billion—from R$11 billion to R$15.2 billion. Legislators also overrode Lula’s veto on the Betting Law, specifically the section on how Income Tax...

Watch the (monthly) pace and hope for the best
TURKEY · Report · 09 May 2024

The CBRT released the second Inflation Report of the year with a nice and comprehensive presentation by Governor Fatih Karahan (see link here for the transcript, here for the presentation). We provide some relatively detailed highlights on the presentation and the Q&A session, followed by comment...

On Victory Day Putin says Ukraine War is like WW II
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 May 2024

On May 9 Putin addressed a crowd in Moscow at the annual commemoration for the end of World War II. Putin denounced Western nations for twisting the history of WW II and for causing conflicts. He railed against Western neo-imperialism and its support for what he termed "neo-Nazism". Putin claimed...

COPOM Watch: The flight of the falcons
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 May 2024

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) reduced the target SELIC rate by only 25 basis points at the last meeting, from 10.75% to 10.50%. However, the decision was not unanimous: all the Central Bank directors appointed by Lula voted to continue the cuts of 50 basis points per meeting,...

The Copom reduced the Selic by 0.25 percentage points, the Senate approved the new DPVAT, and Congress will analyze two bills to direct resources to Rio Grande do Sul
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 May 2024

Yesterday, the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) reduced the basic interest rate (Selic) by 0.25 percentage points, interrupting a cycle of six consecutive cuts of 0.50 pp. The Selic fell from 10.75% to 10.50% per year. The Senate approved the new mandatory insurance policy for veh...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 May 2024

The ruble appreciated in the past two weeks from USD/RUB 94 to almost USD/RUB 91. We suppose that there were two main reasons for such dynamics. Firstly, efforts of the Russian exporters to repatriate export earnings to Russia appeared relatively successful. The settlement between the Russian com...

Israeli institutions sold FX in Q1 as global markets pushed higher
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 May 2024

In Q1, Israeli institutional investors sold net $5.3 billion, following purchases of a similar volume in Q4. Sales in the first quarter derived mainly from sharp increases in global capital markets and not really due to optimism about the geopolitical environment. As of February, the rate of expo...

On campaign financing limits and an eventual impeachment of the president
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 08 May 2024 · 2 responses

Norms regulating campaign financing are simple and strict in Colombia. On May 8th, the National Electoral Council (NEC) is considering a draft ruling indicating that, in the 2022 presidential elections, Gustavo Petro’s campaign surpassed the financing limits. We follow the analysis of the renowne...

Pacheco enacted the Legislative Decree that recognizes the state of emergency in RS, new polls on government ratings were published, and the Copom should announce the new basic interest rate today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 May 2024

Last night, the president of the National Congress, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), enacted the Legislative Decree Bill that recognizes a state of public emergency in Rio Grande do Sul (RS) until December 31. Yesterday, another poll on the government’s ratings was published—the CNT/MDA poll. As other i...

Industrial output returned to a downward trend in March
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 May 2024

Moving in a direction opposite to retail sales, industrial output fell by 3% mom, 2.9% yoy (volume terms, sda basis) in March. Here is the fixed-base chart (Dec 2010 = 100, KSH data): The recent downtrend of the industrial sector appears to reflect Europe's industrial weakness, as the same Hungar...

Relations between G7 and Russia at their worst
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 May 2024

On May 6 the ambassador was spoken to in the Russian Foreign Ministry because of statements made by their governments. London maintains that its ambassador was not summoned but attended an ordinary diplomatic meeting. The British Foreign Secretary said that it did not object to Ukraine's using Br...

Putin inaugurated for 5th term
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 May 2024

On May 7 his new presidential term began with his being sworn in at St George's Hall in the Kremlin by the President of the Constitutional Court. This term will last until 2030. He is allowed another term after that if he wins it, and that would take him to 2036, when he will be 83. In his oratio...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Has Georgian Dream shot itself in the foot by pressing on with the Transparency Law?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 May 2024

While Georgia is enjoying a week-long Easter holiday, political developments in the country resemble nothing of a holiday mood. The unexpected decision by Georgian Dream to re-introduce the controversial "Foreign Agents" bill (dubbed the "Russian Law" by the opposition and global media) has set i...

Good news on retail trade and VAT revenue
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 May 2024

Retail trade grew by 2% mom, 3.6% yoy (volume terms, sda basis) in March, meaning consumer demand is indeed picking up at last. Here is the fixed-base chart (volume terms, December 2010 = 100), and then the graph on percentage yoy changes (with real wage growth also presented) a bit further below...

The House approved Lula’s bill on the floods in RS, the payroll tax relief issue continues to be discussed, and the CCJ is expected to vote on the bill that resumes the mandatory insurance policy for vehicles
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 May 2024

Congress and the Government are currently negotiating a series of important matters. The priority right now is the flood in Rio Grande do Sul (RS). Last night, the House approved the proposal submitted by President Lula that decrees a state of public emergency in Rio Grande do Sul until the end o...

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