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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GDP somewhat stronger than expected in Q1, real wage growth very high in February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Apr 2024

GDP grew by 0.8% qoq, 1.7% yoy on seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis in Q1, according to KSH's first estimate. Both figures represent material strengthening from Q4's upwardly revised 0% qoq, 0.5% yoy growth data. However, all this was only a moderate surprise: analysts, including us, expecte...

April CCA Highlights: Armenia's deflation persists, Azerbaijan's GDP growth strong in 1Q, Georgia buys gold, Uzbekistan raises utility tariffs, Tajikistan summons Russian ambassador
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 Apr 2024

We comment on the key economic developments in the Caucasus and Central Asia in April: Armenia: Monthly economic indicator grows by 15.3% YoY in Mar Armenia: Central Bank lowers refinancing rate by 25bpts to 8.25% Armenia: CA posts a 2.1% of GDP deficit in 2023 Armenia: Gross external debt ...

Corruption crackdown in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2024

On April 29 the head of Nizhny Novgorod was arrested in Russian-occupied Ukraine on suspicion of stealing public funds. Oleg Lavrichev is head of his city council and a member of United Russia, the party that dominates the country. Lavrichev was supposed to supervise the distribution of food and ...

Economics: Inflation proves stubborn and public finances continue to deteriorate
MEXICO · Report · 30 Apr 2024

Economic news over the past month included some unexpectedly positive numbers even as the economy continues to slow. Private consumption grew, but at less than half the 2023 rate, and most of the increase is coming from a forex-fueled demand for imported goods at the expense of the competitivenes...

The next battle of Tax Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2024

This will be a slower week in Brasília due to the holiday (May 1). The Senate may vote on bills that deal with Perse and the R$15 billion credit for the Executive Office. The Ministry of Finance may present an estimate of the impact of the tax burden based on the regulations sent to Congress. ...

Counting on Luck
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Apr 2024

With the so-called New Fiscal Framework, the government hoped to gain credibility regarding the performance of public accounts through a promise to generate a dynamic of expenditures versus revenues consistent with stabilization of the federal debt. However, the fragility of its bases was evident...

Good spots and prospects
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Apr 2024

El Salvador grew faster than expected in 2023 and, under optimistic and somewhat daring assumptions about economic policy decision-making this year, it could maintain those positive economic results during the outlook period. During this second administration of President Nayib Bukele, we expect ...

Politics: Latest poll numbers show Gálvez failing to expand support even as the incumbent camp weakens
MEXICO · Report · 29 Apr 2024

The latest GEA-ISA survey of registered voters contained some encouraging news for the opposition coalition. Support for Morena dropped by as much as 8 points between March and April. President López Obrador’s approval rating has fallen 12 points since September to one of his lowest readings in o...

Clearer picture, with high risks
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Apr 2024

The majority opposition now has a unity candidate, but the path to the presidential election is strewn with obstacles, the final outcome uncertain. On April 19, just one day before the deadline, the Democratic Unitary Platform (Plataforma Unitaria Democrática, or PUD) with the support of all ...

Polish farmers end blockade of Ukrainian produce
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Apr 2024

On April 29 the protesters removed barriers at the last checkpoint they had blocked. The others were removed in April 2024. Goods are moving freely both to and from Ukraine. Since February 2024 Polish farmers had prevented Ukrainian food from entering the country, saying it undercut them. An agre...

The holiday this week reduces the pace of activities in Brasília, the Senate may vote on the Perse bill, and the CCJ may vote on the bill that resumes the mandatory insurance for land vehicles
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2024

The federal holiday on Wednesday, May 1, reduces the pace of activities in Brasília, but there are still important events on the agenda. The payroll tax relief issue continues to resonate. This week, the Senate may vote on a bill that reformulates incentives for the events sector (PL nº 1,026/202...

Election Monitor III: National elections – growing uncertainty amid a rising desire for change
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 29 Apr 2024

South Africa celebrated the 30th anniversary of the new dispensation on Saturday, April 27, 2024. The mood of the nation could hardly be more different than it was on April 27, 1994, when Nelson Mandela declared the triumph of the ANC’s decades of struggle against apartheid. The predominant major...

OFZ: Russian debt puzzle still not assembled
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Apr 2024

The yields in the Russian debt market continue to grow. Last week’s tightening of the CBR's signalling regarding the further trajectory of the key rate may even stimulate this trend. On one hand, even the existing yields look very attractive to long-term institutional investors. On the other hand...

Playing For Time
TURKEY · Report · 28 Apr 2024

Growth was likely positive in Q1, and should finish the year at around 3% with risks tilted to the upside, assuming a flat second half or that a major contraction will be avoided. We see growth slowing further in 2025, however. • Inflation, broadly in line with the consensus, should peak at ju...

S&P affirmed Hungary's BBB-/Stable sovereign debt rating
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Apr 2024

This happened on Friday, April 26, the first preset review date for any of the top three rating agencies, as regards their sovereign ratings for Hungary. Hungary has a split rating (see chart), S&P keeping the government's debt rating in the lowest investment-grade category since January 2023, wh...

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