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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Aug 21 -
Brazil Economics databank Aug 18
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Central America databank Jul 31
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Chile databank Jul 17
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Aug 1
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Dominican Republic databank Aug 21
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Ecuador databank Jul 22
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Gulf Countries databank Aug 22
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Hungary databank Aug 19
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Aug 14
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Philippines databank Aug 6
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Poland databank Jul 16
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Russia Economics databank Aug 14
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South Africa databank Aug 21
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Turkey databank Aug 11
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Aug 21
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT: BRAZIL...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi World Cup, UAE to tax multinationals 15%, Oman may postpone income tax, Saudi and Qatar GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Dec 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC again reduced its 2024-25 oil demand forecasts, which are still far higher than the IEA. * The UAE has reportedly sharply cut oil allocations for Q1, possibly to comply with its quota. * Britain's PM visited UAE and ...
Inflation in 2025 will hinge on oil prices
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Dec 2024
Our inflation and exchange rate forecasts for the remainder of 2024 and for 2025 rest on the assumption that the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) will hold to its crawling peg regime that began in mid-October. It will not revert to an exchange rate peg. Restrictive fiscal and monetary policies ...
The Senate approved the Tax Reform regulation bill, next week is the last week before Congress recesses, and Lula is expected to return to Brasilia after undergoing surgery in São Paulo
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2024
The Senate voted on the bill that regulates Tax Reform. Since changes were made, the text must return to the Lower House for further review. The bill's rapporteur, Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM), expanded benefits for companies located in the Manaus Free Trade Zone and introduced objective criter...
Russian-supported Syrian government collapses—an analysis
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2024
- Jihadi HTS broke its ceasefire, leading to the fall of the Assad regime in less than two weeks. - Russia’s Mediterranean naval base in Tartus, the air bridge for Africa Corps and Russia's international credibility are all at stake. - Russia is not antagonizing Erdogan despite blatant Turki...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: 2025 CCA Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Forecast · 13 Dec 2024
2025 will bring lower GDP growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia, although the moderation in the pace of economic activity will be limited. We forecast average GDP growth to ease from an estimated 6.8% in 2024 to 5.5% in 2025, which will still be slightly above the previous decade's (2014-2023) ...
We are still here
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Dec 2024
The Central Bank not only raised the interest rate by 1 percentage point—against a majority, albeit not unanimous, expectation among analysts of a 0.75 percentage point hike—but also committed itself to two additional hikes of the same magnitude in upcoming Copom meetings. This decision was made ...
Easing cycle ends: NBU raises prime rate by 0.5 ppt to 13.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Dec 2024
The NBU Board has raised the prime rate by 0.5 ppt to 13.5%, effective December 13, marking the end of the easing cycle that began in July 2023. The primary reason for this decision was the acceleration of consumer inflation, which exceeded the 10% threshold (+1.9% m/m and +11.2% y/y in November)...
Balance of payments: no surprise in 11M24 amid the economy’s overheating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2024
The CBR published its flash estimate of the 11M24 balance of payments, and no major surprise was on the table. In 11M24, the current account surplus reached $57.4 bln as the trade balance widened to $118.6 bln. Exports accounted for $386.0 bln, while imports climbed to $267.5. In November alone, ...
All seems fine on the BOP front
TURKEY · Report · 12 Dec 2024
The current account recorded a $1.9 billion surplus in October, notably better than expectations of around a $1.3 billion surplus, compared with broad balance in the same month of last year, which, incidentally, marked the fifth consecutive month of surplus in the current account.
The Senate may vote on the tax reform bill, the government has committed to paying the parliamentary fund transfers tomorrow, and the Copom raised the basic interest rate (Selic)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Dec 2024
The Senate floor may vote today on the bill regulating tax reform. The proposal was approved yesterday by the Constitution and Justice Committee. The government has committed to beginning the parliamentary fund transfers on Friday. If this promise is kept, critical items on the political and econ...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 12 Dec 2024
Nov 27 President: Kazakhstan remains a reliable strategic partner and ally of Russia. Budget: The Parliament of Kazakhstan approved the law "On the Republican Budget for 2025-2027". The 2025 budget deficit is set at 2.7% of GDP, with a decrease in 2026-2027 to 2.2% and 1.9% of GDP, respectively. ...
Highlights of yesterday's speech by President Milei
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 11 Dec 2024
Yesterday, December 10th, 2024, President Javier Milei addressed the Nation on the occasion of the first anniversary of his government. It was a 37-minute speech broadcast on national radio and television in which, instead of highlighting this year's achievements, which were many, he focused on t...
Syria post-Assad: outlook and implications for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Dec 2024 · 1 response
* While there is plenty to worry about, Syrians are celebrating the end of a brutal regime. * HTS has become the dominant force in much of Syria, but the balance with other groups is unclear. * HTS made encouraging pronouncements, including about minorities, women and non-retribution. * The gr...
The government continues to negotiate the fiscal package in the House, the Paten bill was approved in the Senate, and the Copom is expected to announce the new basic interest rate today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Dec 2024
The government continues negotiating in the Lower House to secure a vote on the fiscal package. Yesterday, the President of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), acknowledged that the package is controversial and faces substantive resistance from lawmakers. In the Senate, the bill instituting the Energ...
The political consequences of President Lula's health
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Dec 2024
President Lula's health, following a delicate surgery, raises reflections on the institutional and political implications across different scenarios. In this report, we analyze the potential consequences in cases of temporary or permanent replacement of the President, including scenarios of the p...