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Inflation accelerates despite weak growth
ISRAEL · Report · 19 Aug 2024

1. Economic activity disappointed in the second quarter and is being supported by government spending and private consumption (in part also due to fiscal policy). 2. Inflation accelerated in July, both services and goods, a trend that is expected to continue. 3. All eyes are on ceasefire ne...

GDP growth disappoints as inflation accelerates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Aug 2024

Geopolitics: Negotiations continue in an attempt to reach a cease-fire. Biden sounds optimistic, while Hamas is rather doubtful. Israel continues to maneuver in Gaza and target Hezbollah in Lebanon, which retaliates with drone attacks as well. GDP growth was rather weak in the second quarter GDP ...

On the shores of Rubicon
TURKEY · Forecast · 16 Aug 2024

The Economic Stabilization Program is facing multiple external and domestic threats. While President Erdogan withstanding the pressure and giving the Treasury and Finance Minister Simsek the go-ahead for even tighter policies can certainly not be ruled out, the base-case scenario of our politics ...

GULF WEEKLY: Critical Gaza talks are underway in Qatar, OPEC revised down oil demand growth, Saudi investment law updated
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Aug 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC cut its demand growth forecast for the first time in over a year, although it’s still double the IEA’s. * Saudi Arabia revised its investment law to encourage FDI with less red tape and more investor rights. * Saudi ...

South Africa’s changing political landscape amid growth challenges
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 16 Aug 2024

• South Africa’s growth: During H1-2024, the South African economy not only continued to languish under the strain of the usual domestic headwinds—inadequate electricity supply and logistical constraints—but it also suffered under heightened uncertainty due to the then-upcoming general elections....

STF President Barroso denied the request to suspend Justice Dino’s injunction on mandatory transfers, the Senate postponed the vote on the payroll tax relief bill, and a study will be submitted on the Tax Reform bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Aug 2024

The House, the Senate, and party leaders filed an appeal yesterday to suspend the injunction issued by Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Flávio Dino, which halts the execution of all mandatory fund transfers. STF President Luis Roberto Barroso denied the request. The Senate decided to delay the...

Webinar Replay - Venezuela Political Briefing
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Aug 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the country's international standing and its economic and political outlook in the aftermath of Venezuela's pivotal 2024 presidential elections What can the international community do? Will there be room for negotiations? How could ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Is the market giving Armenia too much benefit of the doubt?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 Aug 2024

Armenia has seen a stronger compression of Eurobond yields since 2022 when compared to CCA peers. This outperformance is especially impressive when assessed against its higher-rated neighbor Georgia. What is driving this? While GDP growth over the last couple of years has been among the best i...

Decent GDP growth in July amid ongoing structural transformation and some unresolved issues
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Aug 2024 · 2 responses

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (measuring activity in six main segments of the economy) grew by 4.1% y-o-y in 7M24 (up from 3.9% y-o-y in 1H24). The services sector continued to evolve smoothly as retail sales expanded by 7.1% and 5.9% in 7M24 and July (y...

Inflation pushes higher
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Aug 2024

Inflation comes in at the high end of expectations The CPI in July was up 0.6% m/m (expectations 0.4%-0.6%), in line with our forecast. Inflation y/y increased to 3.2% from 2.9% last month. Core inflation pushed higher as well to 2.8% y/y from 2.5%, and core inflation excluding government measure...

What is happening with China’s long-dated government bonds?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Aug 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * July’s data continues to indicate a sluggish economy, but it is important to add that even as overall growth is slowing, the quality of growth is also deteriorating. As I see it, “high quality” growth in China is the share of growth driven mainly ...

Justice Dino suspended the mandatory fund transfers to deputies and senators, the Senate approved the state debt renegotiation bill, and today is the deadline for registering candidates for the municipal elections
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Aug 2024

Yesterday, Justice Flávio Dino ordered the suspension of mandatory fund transfers to deputies and senators until the National Congress establishes rules that provide greater transparency and traceability for the transfer of resources. This decision sparked reactions in the Lower House. The Senate...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Aug 2024

The FX market demonstrated high volatility last week. Despite the extension of the OFAC license for MOEX, many international institutions cut relationships with the latter before August 13 (the deadline for the initial license). As a result, the spread between the exchange rate for CNY/USD on the...

Slower growth unlikely to imply more rate cuts
HUNGARY · Report · 14 Aug 2024

We thought a few times in the past that relations between PM Orbán and the EU mainstream could hardly be worse than they actually were. But the most recent events suggest we were wrong on all of these occasions. One problem is that Hungary’s six-month rotating presidency within the EU seems to ha...

The opposition is calling for the impeachment of Justice Alexandre de Moraes, the House approved the second Tax Reform regulation bill, and the Senate is expected to analyze three important bills
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Aug 2024

According to a report by Folha de São Paulo, Justice Alexandre de Moraes's office at the Supreme Federal Court (STF) unofficially ordered the elaboration of reports by the Electoral Court to support Moraes’s decisions against Bolsonaro supporters in the fake news investigation at the STF during a...

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