GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

In the past week, Israeli markets and policy were shaped by two dominant forces: geopolitics and monetary policy. On the geopolitical side, Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan dominated headlines, offering a comprehensive framework that received broad international support but faces uncertainty around Ham...

Low growth, remittance surges and a presidential election mystery

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Sep 2025

El Salvador suffers from chronically low economic growth, and our April 2025 projections seemed to confirm this weak performance. Recent history, from June 2019 to date, when President Nayib Bukele defeated a paralyzing bipartisanship, has showed no improvement in growth. Restoration of public se...

Politics back to normal, mixed signals on economic performance and inflation, and a gloomy fiscal outlook

POLAND · Report · 30 Sep 2025

Polish politics briefly united during the September 9 drone crisis but then quickly reverted to partisan tensions. With the KO and PiS leading in polls, PiS’s rural dominance suggests a likely coalition with Konfederacja, sidelining the KO. Economically, Poland experienced strong growth in Q2 202...

Russian macro: budgetary policy to be thriftier

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Sep 2025

On September 29, the government released its revised 2026-2028 macroeconomic forecast and presented to the Duma a draft federal budget for the same period. While this year’s economic performance has been weak (aligning with the CBR's previous warnings), the government anticipates 1.0% GDP growth....

A misquoted statement by PM Orbán, on alleged spy drones in Ukraine's airspace

HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Sep 2025

A few days ago, President Zelenskyy accused Hungary of sending a spy drone into Ukrainian airspace on two occasions, both observed on September 26. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine even published maps to illustrate their claim, showing the alleged flying path of the Hungarian dron...

Essential CIS Politics: October 2025

CIS POLITICS · Report · 30 Sep 2025

- Trump U-turns on Ukraine war, announces support for Ukraine’s 1991 borders. - Russia and China sign agreement on massive new gas pipeline after Putin’s visit to Beijing, the Power of Siberia-2. - Zelensky announces that he will not run again after the war, tries to address inte...

Decertification is deserved – yet unlikely to do much damage

COLOMBIA · Report · 30 Sep 2025 · 3 responses

U.S. President Donald Trump has identified Colombia as a major drug transit or primary illicit drug-producing country, along with the usual suspects, among them Afghanistan, Bolivia, China and Mexico. It’s not surprising that President Gustavo Petro’s policies and military strategy have led Colom...

Justice Fachin replaced Justice Barroso as President of the STF, party leaders will set the week’s voting agenda in the House, and the Senate should analyze the amendments to the IBS Tax Management Committee bill

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Sep 2025

Justice Edson Fachin has assumed the presidency of the Supreme Federal Court, replacing Justice Luís Roberto Barroso. Fachin sent important messages, stating: “Our commitment is to the Constitution. To the law, what belongs to the law; to politics, what belongs to politics.” Today, Lower House Pr...

Economics: The initiative to raise tariffs on 1,463 products will lead to increased costs and a loss of competitiveness in some sectors

MEXICO · Report · 30 Sep 2025

On September 9, one day after the Economic Package was presented, the Ministry of Finance (SHCP) sent an initiative to modify the General Law on Import and Export Taxes (LIGIE). The initiative seeks to increase tariffs on 1,463 items by between 10% and up to 50% for the period from January to Dec...

The game goes on

VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Sep 2025

Tensions between the Trump administration and the Venezuelan government remain in fragile equilibrium, with each side trying to force the other to break it. The U.S. military deployment in the Caribbean persists, but the pressure is now focused on narratives, demoralizing and isolating Maduro, an...

Bank of Israel rate decision: hawkish tone, but Trump plan could pave way for easing

ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Sep 2025

The Bank of Israel kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.5%, in line with market expectations. In our view, the tone was slightly hawkish relative to expectations, emphasizing geopolitical uncertainty, sticky inflation, and the need to maintain financial stability. The wording was chosen to highlig...

Trump’s Gaza plan: broad support abroad, uncertainty over Hamas approval, rising likelihood of early elections in Israel

ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Sep 2025

Key takeaway: Trump’s 21-point Gaza plan has gained broad international and Arab support, but Hamas’s acceptance remains uncertain. In Israel, the plan currently enjoys political backing, though risks remain that Israel could withdraw from the understandings under political pressure or if Hamas s...

A favorable moment for Lula and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Sep 2025

A busy week in Brasília. High expectations surround the meeting between Lula and Donald Trump. In the Lower House, the Income Tax bill and Provisional Measure (MP) No. 1,303/25, addressing taxation on betting and financial investments, may advance. The opposition continues to push the Amnesty Bil...

Politics: Sheinbaum’s first year in office: a balance sheet of achievements and contradictions

MEXICO · Report · 29 Sep 2025

On October 1, Claudia Sheinbaum will have been in office for the first 12 months of her six-year presidency. President Sheinbaum is riding high, with opinion polls putting her approval ratings at between 60% and 80%. The achievements on some fronts have been real: a reduction in poverty and a ...

Mind the gap

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Sep 2025

The Central Bank maintained its inflation projection for the relevant horizon, despite exchange rate appreciation and the slowdown in economic activity. One factor behind this decision was the upward revision of output gap estimates, reflecting the stronger-than-expected labor market dynamics. Th...