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Lost Horizon
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Aug 2024

The Minutes of the last Copom meeting maintained, or rather deepened, the tough tone already displayed in the statement following the meeting in which the Committee decided to maintain the interest rate at 10.50%, to such an extent that it seems like a document explaining why it would have raised...

Peace talks?
UKRAINE · Report · 06 Aug 2024

There’s been lots of talk about a potential peace deal. Ukrainian sentiments on the issue are murky. While polls show a growing demand for a peace deal, the majority of respondents still reject any territorial concessions to Russia. Moreover, an overwhelming majority—77.3%—would agree to peace wi...

The Senate may discuss the payroll tax relief bill tomorrow, Lula may announce the new Central Bank president before the municipal elections, and CGU and STN employees go on strike today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Aug 2024

The Senate's agenda for this week has been released. On Wednesday, the bill on payroll tax relief may be analyzed. There is still no agreement, so the possibility of postponement cannot be ruled out. Today, the Estadão published an article about the government's efforts to advance the appointment...

Don’t Stop Me Now!
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Aug 2024

Public debt in Brazil started to increase again in 2023 and is expected to continue in the coming years. To reverse this trend, it would be necessary to generate primary surpluses close to 2% of GDP, which is highly unlikely given the government's low commitment to fiscal adjustment. We also ...

Politics: Heightened security and diplomatic challenges face Mexico following the US capture of drug kingpins
MEXICO · Report · 05 Aug 2024

Though much remains uncertain as to just how US officials supposedly had the good fortunate to have two major Mexican cartel figures fall into their hands at a private airport near El Paso, Texas, there can be little doubt that this turn of events has major implications for bilateral relations, d...

The risk of delay in Tax Reform increases and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Aug 2024

The Senate is holding a concentrated voting effort this week to advance discussions on payroll tax relief. The deadline given by the Supreme Federal Court on this issue is September 11. The Tax Reform regulation bill, which creates the CBS and IBS taxes, should begin analysis in the Senate. Today...

Russian macro: Central Bank gets more hawkish amid economy's overheating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Aug 2024

In a recent report we mentioned that in 1H24, as Rosstat reported, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation) grew by 5.8% y-o-y. In June alone it was up by a mere 2.5% y-o-y, and as a result, basic sector output grew by 4.8% y-o-y in 2Q24. E...

Economics: July indicators confirm further slowdown as inflation spikes and public finances deteriorate
MEXICO · Report · 05 Aug 2024

The preliminary estimate of 2QGDP showed the least pronounced increase in 13 quarters, just shy of 2.0%. The secondary sector provided only a little help by managing to grow half a percentage point as manufacturing numbers continued to reflect the softening of US demand for Mexican-made goods, ex...

Today is the deadline to choose candidates for the upcoming municipal elections, the Senate will hold a concentrated voting effort this week, and CGU and STN employees go on strike tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Aug 2024

The deadline for holding party conventions to choose candidates and form coalitions for the October elections ends today (August 5). According to electoral legislation, the registration deadline is August 15. Due to the municipal elections, Congress will operate at a slower pace. The Senate will ...

Uptick likely transitory, but road ahead remains very challenging
TURKEY · Report · 05 Aug 2024

Consumer prices rose by 3.2% in July, m/m, broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month rate dropping sharply by about 10 pps, as expected, to 61.8% from 71.6% in June, thanks to base effects. Producer prices rose by 1.9%, with the 12-month PPI-inflation also falling visibly to 41.4% from...

Elevated risk of escalation pushes Israel’s risk premium higher
ISRAEL · Report · 05 Aug 2024

1. The elevated risk of an imminent attack on Israel on several fronts continues to weigh on markets. 2. S&P put out a warning regarding the increased downside risks to the economy and fiscal policy. 3. Wage growth (6% annual) is above that required to keep inflation within the target range...

The Philippine Maharlika Investment Fund: More delays?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 05 Aug 2024

A little over a year after Republic Act (RA) No. 11954 or the Maharlika Investment Fund (MIF) Act was signed into law on July 18, 2023, the Philippines has yet to witness the MIF engaged in its first investment activity. The MIF, the country’s first version of a sovereign wealth fund, was contemp...

Israel's risk premium spikes on escalation risks
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Aug 2024

Geopolitics: Tension remain very high, following two assassinations (Haniyeh, Hamas leader in Teheran and Shukr, senior Hezbollah commander, in Beirut). Israel took credit for the killing of the Hamas leader. Iran and its proxies have vowed to retaliate. The scope or timing of this retaliation is...

Russia nuclear drills
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Aug 2024

On August 1 Russian soldiers practiced placing dummy warheads on launchers. Russian state media was keen to broadcast Iskander M operational tactical missile systems performing the third stage of the drills. The Iskander M is for short-range nuclear and conventional missiles. The Kremlin said tha...

Arrests for fraud in the Russian Army
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Aug 2024

On August 2 Sergei Sukhov, the former head of construction for the Central Military district, was taken into custody. Sukhov was a subordinate of the former Deputy Defense Minister Ivanov who is also in custody. There have already been arrests as part of the investigation. The organization being ...

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