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Russian border guards leave Armenian airport
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Aug 2024

On July 31 the last of them left Yerevan Airport. In early 2024 Armenia insisted that the Russian border guards be withdrawn. This is due to souring relations between the two former Soviet republics. Moscow has been frank that Armenia's demand has damaged relations. Armenia is a member of Collect...

Essential CIS Politics: August 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Aug 2024

* Russia hosted the Indian and Hungarian PMs. * The major prisoner swap between Russia and West includes a journalist. * Ukraine is willing to negotiate with Russia while Russia occupies East Ukraine. * Kazakhstan hosted the Chinese President for a state visit and the Shang...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops to six-month low despite conflict risks, Saudi Arabia’s deficit rises but so does non-oil GDP growth, Oman plans LNG expansion
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Aug 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude dropped to a six-month low of $77 as demand fears outstrip conflict risks. * There was momentum in GCC FTA talks, including with Turkey, the UK and Indonesia. The UAE also advanced more CEPAs. * The Saudi Q2 d...

Facts and implications around Ukraine sanctioning Lukoil are slowly getting clearer, despite a strong element of a 'fog of war'
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Aug 2024

This has become a rather complicated story by now. In our next monthly report, due around mid-August, we are planning to give a more detailed rundown. Here, we would focus only on the main points. 1. It is difficult to establish even the basic facts, not even mentioning the reasons and the likely...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Azerbaijan gets a well-deserved IG status
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 02 Aug 2024

In some of our recent writings (from last year), we conjectured that Azerbaijan was on pace to re-attaining IG status as early as within the next 3 years. Fitch has been the fist of the rating agencies to do that by assigning the country an IG rating on Jul 26th. Not unexpectedly, Fitch justified...

Turkey – Israel tensions: War is not the only ugly scenario
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Aug 2024

Roughly a week after in one of his endless stream of public speeches Erdogan had insinuated Turkey could declare war on Israel, the latter assassinated two HAMAS leaders, namely Ismael Haniyeh and Mohammed Deif, leading to howls of outrage from all political parties in Turkey. The hits on HAMAS l...

Russia and the West in biggest ever exchange of prisoners
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Aug 2024

On August 1, 8 Russians and 16 Westerners were released. Russia released German, US, British and Russian prisoners. They traveled home via Turkey. Russians were set free by the US, Norway, Germany, Poland and Slovenia. The Russians who were in jail in Western countries were convicted or facing tr...

Ukraine finally receives F16s
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Aug 2024

On July 31 it was confirmed that Ukraine had received the fighter jets, 18 months after they were promised. They have been in service with NATO air forces for 50 years. In July 2024 Russia attacked some air bases that were thought likely to house the F16s. The number that has arrived has not been...

Several Tones Higher
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Aug 2024 · 1 response

There was no surprise in the decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 10.50% per annum, but the tone of the Copom's Statament was much harsher than in the previous meeting, although not as severe as some had imagined. Several issues seem to capture the Central Bank's consideration. ...

Economic growth slows in June but is likely to return to previous trajectory
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Aug 2024

Rosstat reported that in 1H24, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation) grew by 5.8% y-o-y. In June alone it was up by a mere 2.5% y-o-y. June brought down the 1Q24 y-o-y to 4.8%. The economy has seemingly slowed markedly in June, however, ...

Central Bank keeps monetary policy interest rate unchanged
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Aug 2024

The monetary policy interest rate will remain unchanged for the ninth consecutive month, according to the decision taken yesterday by the Central Bank. In August 2024, the monetary policy interest rate will be 7% per year, while the permanent liquidity expansion facility rate (1-day Repos) and th...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Aug 2024

On July 26, the CBR decided to hike the key rate by 200 bps (to 18%), which was the upper boundary of what the market expected. The statement bythe regulator’s BoD was moderately hawkish and confirmed that further monetary policy tightening is likely - if inflation continues to accelerate. The ma...

A bigger fiscal deficit and a tragicomedy unlikely to end well
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Aug 2024 · 5 responses

The publication of the 2024 Medium-Term Fiscal Framework in June revealed some shocking developments about this year’s fiscal policy. Chief among them were a substantial shortfall in revenues, a humongous required reduction in primary spending and an increase in the year-end national central gove...

Tensions rise after Israel assassinates Hamas and Hezbollah leaders
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Jul 2024

The conflicts underway in the Middle East saw further escalation yesterday as Israeli strikes killed a Hezbollah military leader, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut, and then Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, during a visit to Iran. The killings demonstrated Israel’s substantial intelligence and milit...

Maduro clings to power
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Jul 2024 · 3 responses

Nicolás Maduro's dream of being legitimized by an electoral triumph on July 28 went up in smoke. He trusted that the advantageousness of an abusive incumbent would assure him victory, but his base betrayed him. Faced with this reality, the government opted for delegitimization and clings to power...

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