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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Winston Churchill’s Wisdom
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Nov 2024

The long-postponed "fiscal adjustment package" has finally come to light. The reaction was so negative that some suggested another postponement would have been a better option. The first conclusion we draw, as we will explore further, is that the magnitude of the promised adjustment falls shor...

Nov CCA Highlights: Armenia lowers CPI target, Azerbaijan grows strongly in Oct, Georgia sells record-high FX to prop up lari, Uzbekistan delays meeting CPI target
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 29 Nov 2024

We discuss briefly the key macro and political events in the Caucasus and Central Asia this Nov: Armenia: GDP grows by 5.2% YoY in 3Q24 Armenia: Monthly economic indicator decelerates to 4.2% YoY in Oct Armenia: CPI steady in Oct at 0.6% YoY Armenia: CB to lower inflation target to 3% in 20...

Central Bank Reduces Monetary Policy Rate Again and Announces Liquidity Increase
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 29 Nov 2024

The Central Bank has once again reduced the monetary policy rate, lowering it by 25 basis points to 6% annually, effective December 2024. The permanent facility rate has been decreased to 6.50% annually, while the overnight deposit rate has been set at 4.5% annually. Additionally, this week the C...

Finance minister Mihály Varga is now officially nominated for central bank governor
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Nov 2024

PM Orbán, the person having the right to nominate the next governor of the MNB, named Mr. Varga as his candidate this morning. Mr. Varga is 59 years old, and as he has just said, he spent 4800 days as finance minister (occasionally as economy and finance minister). His appointment for the post is...

Political noise and its more serious impact
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Nov 2024

It started with unity, and it might as well end up in one single stroke to rock the Philippine economy. The political situation in the Philippines seems to be getting more explosive from an economic standpoint. Indeed, the unity team of President Bongbong Marcos and Vice President Sara Duterte wa...

Further disinflation is less and less likely, with EURHUF at 413-414 today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Nov 2024

Source: tradingeconomics.com Since September 26, the start of the latest downtrend of EUR against USD, the euro appreciated against HUF by 4.4%, and the dollar strengthened against HUF by 9%. So the forint did markedly worse than other CEE currencies, against which the EUR rose by 0.9% (PLN), 0.5...

Recent statistics point to no change: steady economic growth, uneven by sectors, amid accelerating inflation
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Nov 2024

Rosstat reported that in 10M24, the output of five basic sectors grew by 4.8% y-o-y. In October alone, it was up by 3.4% y-o-y – dragged on by poor numbers in agriculture and construction. The former fell by 3.8%, while the latter was up by a mere 2.2% (both numbers are y-o-y for 10M24). This yea...

Haddad may submit the spending package tomorrow, the CCJ will hold its final public hearing today, and the STF will rule on the case regarding the Internet Civil Framework
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Nov 2024

According to the interim government leader in the Senate, Otto Alencar (PSD-BA), Finance Minister Fernando Haddad is expected to present the spending cut package to the President of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), during the leaders' meeting on Thursday morning. Today, the Senate's Constitu...

Worry in the runup to a second Trump administration
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Nov 2024

El Salvador’s macroeconomic conditions are worsening. Economic activity has continued to be relatively stagnant, and has yet to show positive results from economic policy actions other than in some scattered indicators, such as in tourism. Foreign remittances have decelerated, while the fiscal de...

Has consumer inflation converged to the level consistent with the rate of crawl?
ARGENTINA · Report · 27 Nov 2024

This is the first of three reports in which I will discuss an equal number of topics that are central to Argentina’s near-term economic future, namely, inflation, the FX market and country risk. Specifically, I will assess how these variables are likely to behave between now and the mid-term elec...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Nov 2024

Nov 14 Energy Ministry: During the UN Climate Change conference COP29 in Baku, Kazakhstan signed a joint declaration targeting a three-fold increase in nuclear energy production by 2050. Prime Minister: The Prime Minister of Kazakhstan Mr. Bektenov met with CEO of the Russian Nuclear Corporation ...

Can Peru avoid taking sides in the U.S.-China trade war? Economy to outperform in 2024; BCRP to pause in December
PERU · Report · 26 Nov 2024

In this report, we discuss three topics. First, we analyze the impact on Peru of the developing trade war between China and the United States. Second, we discuss Peru’s better-than-expected economic growth (we have revised up our full-year 2024 real GDP growth forecast to 3.1%, but have lowered o...

Haddad said that the spending package will be submitted this week, Lira scheduled a meeting with leaders to discuss the criticism of Brazilian meat products, and the Joint Budget Committee should meet today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Nov 2024

Fernando Haddad did not confirm the date of the announcement of the spending package but assured that it will happen this week. Planning Minister Simone Tebet stated that it is highly unlikely to occur today. Yesterday, Arthur Lira commented on the criticism leveled last week against Latin Americ...

Economics: Analysis of the recent evolution of the public finances and the main implications of the 2025 Economic Package
MEXICO · Report · 26 Nov 2024

On November 15, the Ministry of Finance presented the Economic Package for next year, which includes the General Economic Policy Criteria for 2025 (CGPE) as well as the proposed Revenue Law and the Federal Expenditure Budget. In our opinion, the most important aspect of this package is the applic...

Politics: The 2025 budget reveals the 4T’s true political priorities, but simply doesn’t address the key problems with public finances
MEXICO · Report · 25 Nov 2024

The overarching consideration underpinning the Sheinbaum administration’s 2025 budget proposal, which was released late Friday before last, is to ensure Morena's permanence in power through cash transfers delivered from multiple social programs. In the budget proposal, these will account for 9% o...

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