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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Exchange Rate: Brazil and Its Peers
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Apr 2024

The behavior of the Real, which in recent weeks has weakened beyond the level of R$ 5.00/US$, has followed the global appreciation of the dollar in response to the increase in long-term interest rates in the United States. This behavior is different than that of the currencies of Mexico and Colom...

Rates on hold, fiscal deficit pushes higher despite strong revenues
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Apr 2024

The Bank of Israel maintained present policy rates on hold at 4.5% on April 8 (market expectations were divided). In the press conference the Governor was clear that elevated geopolitical risks and FX stability were key to the decision: “In view of recent developments, which indicate a substantia...

President Lula may make a decision regarding the president of Petrobras this week, the Joint Committee on the payroll tax exemption should be installed, and government rushes to finalize the Tax Reform regulations
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Apr 2024

We are expecting some developments regarding Petrobras this week. President Lula may decide whether or not Jean Paul Prates will remain in office. The president of BNDES, Aloizio Mercadante, is currently the main option to replace Prates. On Tuesday, April 9, the Joint Committee is scheduled to b...

Economics: Public finances got off to a dismal start as the 2025 Pre-Criteria are a cause of alarm
MEXICO · Report · 08 Apr 2024 · 1 response

The week before last, the Ministry of Finance released its reports on both public finances for January-February 2024 and Economic Policy Pre-Criteria for 2025 (PCGPE). The public finance report shows a deterioration that the economic package approved for 2024 had anticipated, but it has unfolded ...

Diplomatic impasse with unpredictable consequences
ECUADOR · Forecast · 08 Apr 2024

As we write this report, the world press is reporting on the trespass of the Mexican Embassy ordered by President Noboa last Friday night to capture former Vice Jorge President Glas, a convicted felon who should not have been a subject of the political asylum granted him by the Mexican government...

A storm of uncertainties
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Apr 2024

The government did not allow Machado's candidacy or Corina Yoris, her designated substitute. After the deadline for nominations had expired, the National Electoral Council (CNE) admitted the "symbolic" candidacy of Dr. Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, a retired diplomat with no party ties, under the car...

Elevated uncertainty will postpone loosening
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Apr 2024

1. We expect a rate hold decision today on elevated conflict escalation risk and concern regarding expansionary fiscal policy. 2. Economic indicators point to a steady recovery, with construction and incoming tourism still below pre-war levels. 3. Exports of both high-tech services and indu...

The chances of a rate cut on Monday have diminished
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Apr 2024

Monetary policy: We have shifted our rate forecast today to hold, due to last week’s weaker shekel and elevated risk for escalation. In addition, we think the BoI is increasingly concerned about the expansionary fiscal policy. The BoI revised macro forecast is expected to reflect a higher fiscal ...

No more excuses
TURKEY · Report · 07 Apr 2024

A week after the municipal elections, Turkey is still in shock, including her political class. While experts debate why AKP lost and CHP won, the first clues suggest that victory may be the beginning of a sea change, rather than a one-off incident. President Erdogan seems aware of what has gon...

US and EU pledges USD 358 million to Armenia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Apr 2024

On April 5 the President of the European Commission and the US Secretary of State met the Prime Minister of Armenia in Brussels. The EU will grant Armenia USD 293 million. The EU says it is giving the money to enhance Armenia's economy so it can withstand shocks.  The US said it wants to safeguar...

Disinflation, ersatz disinflation, mayhem
TURKEY · Report · 05 Apr 2024

“There is nothing new except what is forgotten” * Last Sunday’s election outcome leaves us with interesting, yet at the same time pretty obvious questions: Where do we go from here? What does it mean for Minister Simsek’s “program”, as well as – more broadly speaking – his tenure? What will th...

GULF WEEKLY: S&P puts Oman on Positive outlook, opposition maintains majority in Kuwaiti elections, Abu Dhabi records strong Q4 GDP, oil touches $91.
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Apr 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude has risen to $91, the highest since October, partial due to regional tensions. * Israeli airstrikes hit the Iranian embassy in Syria and killed Western aid workers in Gaza. * The UAE and Saudi Arabia were the ...

Webinar Replay - Central America Outlook: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 05 Apr 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the economic outlook for Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Guatemala. What will fiscal consolidation mean for Costa Rica after its IMF program ends? Will El Salvador agree to a new IMF financing program? Will Guatemala find stability after ...

There are reports that Jean Paul Prates will likely be replaced as president of Petrobras, the MGI will meet with environmental career representatives, and the Joint Committee on the payroll tax exemption should be installed next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Apr 2024

The relationship between Jean Paul Prates and the government has reportedly deteriorated significantly. In other news, today, the Ministry of Management and Innovation (MGI) will hold a meeting with environmental career representatives to discuss the group’s demands. Currently, employees from Iba...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CAs return to "normal" deficit positions in 2023 (and beyond)
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Apr 2024

The publication of current account data for the CCA economies for 4Q23 allows us to assess overall external performance in 2023. Our key conclusion is that the one-off sizable improvement of CA positions in 2022 on the back of excess monetary inflows (remittances) from Russia has mostly come to a...

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