Services
GLOBAL COVERAGE
- ARGENTINA
- BRAZIL ECONOMICS
- BRAZIL POLITICS
- CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA
- CENTRAL AMERICA
- CHILE
- CHINA
- CHINA ADVISORY
- CHINA FINANCIAL
- COLOMBIA
- DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
- ECUADOR
- GULF COUNTRIES
- HUNGARY
- INDIA
- INDONESIA
- ISRAEL
- JAMAICA / BAHAMAS
- KAZAKHSTAN
- MEXICO
- NIGERIA
- PANAMA
- PERU
- PHILIPPINES
- POLAND
- RUSSIA ECONOMICS
- RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS
- SOUTH AFRICA
- TURKEY
- UKRAINE
- VENEZUELA
Events
Databanks
-
Argentina databank Oct 28 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
-
Central America databank Oct 29
-
Chile databank Oct 29
-
China databank Mar 21
-
Colombia databank Oct 1
-
Dominican Republic databank Oct 21
-
Ecuador databank Oct 23
-
Gulf Countries databank Oct 31
-
Hungary databank Oct 17
-
India databank Jun 26
-
Mexico databank Oct 21
-
Panama databank Jul 17
-
Peru databank Sep 29
-
Philippines databank Oct 8
-
Poland databank Nov 3
-
Russia Economics databank Oct 16
-
South Africa databank Nov 3
-
Turkey databank Oct 27
-
Ukraine databank Aug 15
-
Venezuela databank Nov 3
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - NAVIGATING AN OIL GLUT: FISCAL AND RATING RISKS FOR ...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
The perils of Penelope
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Feb 2025
Copom’s current balance of risks highlights the asymmetry toward upside inflation risks, including economic overheating, given the positive output gap—one of the fundamentals of the current interest rate hike cycle. Economic slowdown and the consequent reduction of the output gap, thus reducing i...
U.S. and DR to explore collaboration on extraction of rare-earth elements
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 18 Feb 2025
Official data confirmed strong economic growth in 2024, with a 5% annual expansion, and lower unemployment amid rising labor force participation. Preliminary estimates indicate a 3% of GDP current account deficit, and an increase in NFPS debt, to 46.1% of GDP. The new year began with moderate ...
Lula met with government leaders to discuss Eletrobras, pressure on the agency Ibama continues, and Senate President Alcolumbre will meet with party leaders to determine the voting agenda
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Feb 2025
Yesterday, President Lula discussed the Eletrobras issue with Chief of Staff Rui Costa, Minister of Mines and Energy Alexandre Silveira, Minister of Management Esther Dweck and Attorney General Jorge Messias. A conciliation agreement is expected to be announced in the coming days. Yesterday, Mini...
Is the peso overvalued? A technical note
ARGENTINA · Report · 18 Feb 2025
In this report, I argue that, contrary to what President Milei and members of his economic team say, the Argentine peso is overvalued. By how much—I don't know, nor do I think anyone does. I know that the peso is overvalued for three reasons. First, because of the cepo: if it didn't exist, the no...
Israel’s GDP growth slows in Q4 2024, labor market remains tight
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Feb 2025
The initial estimate for the fourth quarter of 2024 reveals a slowdown in Israel’s GDP growth to 2.5%, down from an upwardly revised 5.3% in the previous quarter, according to initial estimates from the Central Bureau of Statistics. GDP fell sharply in Q4 2023 after the economy almost shut down d...
GDP grew by 4.8% in 2024, growth acceleration unlikely this year
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Feb 2025
Last Friday, the Bureau of National Statistics reported that the country’s GDP grew by 4.8%, which is not too bad (albeit the government growth targets are more ambitious). Production of goods (35% of GDP) was up by 5.6%, as industry, agriculture, and construction delivered 2.8%, 13.7%, and 13.1%...
A rare occasion: PM Orbán comments on the forint's exchange rate
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Feb 2025
This morning, PM Orbán has put on to his facebook a short video. In this, he is sitting at his desk, attentively studying a full-page chart with European gas prices. Asked from the backstage how the week is going, he says that they closed last week and also started this week with the discussion o...
Another week of solid data, rising tensions
TURKEY · Report · 16 Feb 2025 · 1 response
Domestic political tensions continue to rise. A new lawsuit has been launched against the Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, while an investigation on bribery in CHP’s last grand convention could lead to the party being managed by a government-appointed trustee for a year or two. The politics author ...
Israel CPI: Inflation rises to 3.8% in January, VAT hike and tariffs drive index higher
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Feb 2025
January CPI overview Israel's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.6% in January, slightly above our forecast of 0.5%, bringing annual inflation to 3.8%, up from 3.2% in December. The increase was primarily driven by the higher VAT, taxes on electric vehicles, and rising electricity, water, and m...
GULF WEEKLY: US tariffs threaten aluminum exporters, Saudi deficit is as expected, Kuwait plans bonds, Lebanon forms cabinet
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Feb 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Trump’s 25% tariff on aluminum will hurt Gulf exporters. They are already subject to 25% on steel. * The GCC states are unlikely to be priority targets for Trump’s mooted “reciprocal” tariffs. * As Trump engages with Russ...
Haddad believes there is room for negotiation with the US regarding tariffs, today Haddad travels to the Middle East for the IMF Conference, and next week the STF will resume deliberations on an appeal on nepotism
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Feb 2025
The Brazilian government has been cautious regarding the tariffs announced by the United States. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad stated that the best approach at the moment is to wait, as he believes there is room for negotiation. Today, Haddad is traveling to the Middle East, where he will part...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Tourism statistics in Georgia defy political crisis
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 Feb 2025
Tourism in Georgia has traditionally been a cash cow for the economy, having brought on average about 8 percent of GDP annually over 2010-2023. Naturally, then, the events of the last year with the adoption of the Transparency Law (foreign agents law) and the disputed Parliamentary elections have...
Unpegging the Hong Kong dollar peg
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Feb 2025
Given the difficult state of Hong Kong’s economy, and more broadly its role in the world, it is not surprising that we are seeing speculation about how the city will refashion itself under tighter mainland control. There are concerns about the direction of the economy; the strength of its pillar ...
Slide presentation - North America Trade War: Implications for Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 13 Feb 2025
Get insight into the tariff issues between the U.S. and Mexico with the slide presentation from our webinar "North America Trade War: Implications for Mexico". The US administration agreed to pause the tariffs originally scheduled to take effect in early February for Canada and Mexico for 30 day...
Institutional Relations Minister Padilha outlined the government’s legislative priorities, Lula criticized the federal agency Ibama regarding oil exploration in the Amazon, and truckers issued a statement about a possible strike
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Feb 2025
Yesterday, the Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha, presented the federal government's priorities to the President of the Lower House, Deputy Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), during a meeting in the deputy’s office, alongside party leaders. The agenda is divided into six pillars. ...