GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

After strong political and popular backlash against the “Privileges Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC),” the Senate’s Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) unanimously approved Senator Alessandro Vieira’s (MDB-SE) report deeming the measure unconstitutional. Congressman Carlos Zarattini (...

Market calm returns to Argentina after President Trump and US Secretary Bessent pledge strong support

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 24 Sep 2025

Last week, Argentina’s economy faced intense pressure as the nominal exchange rate hit the ceiling of its exchange band and country risk surged to 1,450 basis points. Yet, the government, led by President Javier Milei and Economy Minister Luis "Toto" Caputo, pulled off two bold moves that swiftly...

Trump said he should meet with Lula next week, the submission of the report on the Amnesty Bill was postponed, and the Senate may vote on the bill that establishes the Management Committee for the IBS tax

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Sep 2025

During a UN meeting yesterday, President Donald Trump said he had a brief conversation with President Lula and that the two will hold a meeting next week. In an interview with CNN, Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira stated that the conversation is expected to take place by phone or videoconference. On...

Headwinds to imports of Russian oil are intensifying

HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2025

Following the obvious failure of his Alaska initiative, President Trump has decided to move to Ukraine's side most recently. On different occasions and through various means, including his own social media platform, his energy minister, and also talking at a press conference at the UN general ass...

Next Stop: Ankara

TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2025

Early yesterday, an Ankara prosecutor ordered the arrest of 13 employees of the Ankara Metropolitan Municipality and independent contractors on charges of “overspending” ca. TL 150 mn ($4-5 mn depending on the exchange rates prevailing at the date of events). These accusations had been headlined ...

Boluarte attempts to boost approval ratings; post-election risk falls, but near-term election risk will impact economy; local market rally weakens

PERU · Report · 23 Sep 2025 · 1 response

We cover three topics in this September forecast report. First, in politics, having adjusted our forecast in August, we now believe with 80% probability that President Dina Boluarte will complete her current term, scheduled to end in July 2026. We examine how Boluarte has attempted to boost her p...

Kazakhstan macro: economic growth backed by rapidly expanding domestic credit to decelerate

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Sep 2025 · 1 response

According to the Ministry of National Economy’s flash estimate, the nation’s GDP grew by 6.5% y-o-y in 8M25. Earlier, the Ministry estimated economic growth in 7M25 at 6.3%. Prior to that, the Bureau of National Statistics reported that GDP grew by 5.6% and 6.2% y-o-y in 1Q25 and 1H25, respective...

The Lower House president will meet with party leaders to discuss this week’s agenda, the opposition continues to push for the amnesty bill, and the rapporteur of the measure on taxing betting should present his report

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2025

The President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB), will meet with party leaders to discuss this week’s agenda. Two topics are expected to draw the most attention: the income tax exemption and the amnesty proposal. On the amnesty issue, the opposition continues to push for a broad tex...

A window of opportunity in the legislative agenda and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Sep 2025

President Lula is on his first trip to the United States since Donald Trump was elected president. The U.S. has pledged to announce new sanctions against Brazil. Party leaders continue negotiating a text to grant amnesty to those accused and convicted of attempting a coup d’état. The government i...

Politics: The 2026 Budget Proposal advances but is too subordinated to political considerations

MEXICO · Report · 22 Sep 2025

In the 2026 Budget Proposal (PPEF), total net public expenditure for the fiscal year is projected to increase a real 5.9%. Despite the declared need to reduce the fiscal deficit, social spending in politically oriented programs will receive a massive injection of resourses. This reflects the gove...

Should I stay or should I go?

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Sep 2025 · 1 response

Imbalances continue to accumulate. After some improvement in the performance of public accounts in the first half of the year, largely due to the change in the disbursement date of certain expenditures, notably those related to court-ordered payments, the primary deficit is rising again. It is ex...

Lula traveled to the U.S. yesterday, the rapporteur of the bill on income tax exemptions should present his report tomorrow, and the Lower House is expected to vote on the amnesty bill in the coming days

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Sep 2025

President Lula traveled to the United States yesterday. This is his first trip to the U.S. since Donald Trump was elected president. However, no meeting between Lula and Trump is expected. Congressman Arthur Lira (PP-AL), rapporteur of the bill granting an income tax exemption for those earning ...

Higher public investment and deficit driving 2025 growth

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 22 Sep 2025

The Dominican economy grew by just 2.4% in H1 2025, half of its potential. To stimulate activity, the government approved a budget amendment that raises capital spending by 0.4% of GDP, increasing the overall deficit by the same amount. With the same objective, the Central Bank has continued the ...

Economics: Public investment outlook for 2026

MEXICO · Report · 22 Sep 2025

The 2026 Expenditure Budget Proposal (PPEF) anticipates a slight recovery in public investment following a deep contraction in 2025. Physical investment could increase by nearly 10% in real terms (from 888.9 billion to 975.5 billion pesos, ((US$48.30 billion to US$53 billion)), while investment i...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, September 22, 2025

ISRAEL · Report · 22 Sep 2025

Last week was dominated by geopolitics, as Prime Minister Netanyahu’s “Super Sparta” speech raised fears of economic fallout and deepened Israel’s diplomatic isolation. Markets reacted negatively, while the failed strike on Hamas leaders in Doha further strained ties with Arab states. We outlined...