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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CA positions improve in the CCA in 2Q24, allowing for useful FX reserve buildup
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 04 Oct 2024

The publication of current account data for the CCA economies for 2Q24 allows us to assess the overall external performance in the region in the second quarter of the year. The 2Q24 data for our CCA economies, which was published this week, has shown an improving external position (for all count...

Webinar Replay - Colombia Macro, Politics and Reforms Update
COLOMBIA · Report · 04 Oct 2024

Visit our calendar page to to watch the replay of our webinar, "Colombia Macro, Politics and Reforms Update", which details economic conditions in Colombia, the country's political outlook and the forecast for reforms.

Inflation notably higher than expected
TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2024

Consumer price inflation was 3%, m/m, in September, visibly higher than the market (around 2.2%) and our slightly higher (2.3%) forecasts, the error in our forecast largely stemming from higher-than-expected price increases in food and beverages, and transportation services. The 12-month CPI infl...

Today is the last day of the electoral campaign period on TV and radio, Haddad met with Zanin to discuss the taxation of international profits, and with Febraban's president to discuss online betting
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Oct 2024

Today is the last day of the electoral campaign period on TV and radio. It is also the final day for debates between candidates running for various mayoral positions across the country. The first round of the election takes place on Sunday, October 6. Yesterday, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad m...

Economic growth gradually decelerates in August
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Oct 2024

Rosstat reported that in 8M24, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) was up by 5.2% y-o-y. In August alone, it increased by a mere 1.7%. This sharp deceleration was mainly caused by agriculture, as it was down y-o-y by 14.7% and 3.2%...

The prospects for economic recovery for the fourth quarter and 2025
ARGENTINA · Report · 03 Oct 2024 · 1 response

The past week has been particularly rich in macroeconomic information. The National Statistical Bureau (INDEC) published the main quarterly indicators (GDP, unemployment and the balance of payments) for the second quarter of 2024, together with the poverty indices for the first semester (1H24). I...

Slide Presentation: Colombia Macro, Politics and Reforms Update
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Oct 2024

Get insight into economic conditions in Colombia, the country's political outlook and the forecast for reforms with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Colombia Macro, Politics and Reforms Update".

FinMin and Congress square off
COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Oct 2024

The most interesting pistol duel of this legislature is taking place between the minister of finance and the congressional opposition. The issue at hand is a two-headed beast, composed of the 2025 budget and the so-called financing act (aka the second tax reform). The budget implicitly takes for ...

Russian macro: The 2025 budget looks reasonable but the 2024 amendments puzzle investors
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Oct 2024

In recent days, the Russian government submitted to the State Duma the final draft of a three-year rolling budget (2025-2027) that at a glance looked quite peculiar, although that is not unusual. As macroeconomic growth forecasts supporting the budgetary planning were usually conservative, while ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Oct 2024

Sep 23 Ministry of Agriculture: The Government of Kazakhstan has upgraded the 2024 grain harvest forecast and expects to harvest at least 20 mln tons versus 13-14 mln tons earlier. Government: Kazakhstan will increase financing of the agriculture industry by 20% to $1.5 bln in 2025. Sep 24 Presid...

Moody’s has upgraded Brazil’s credit rating, the Gas Assistance Program will be reformatted to comply with the fiscal framework, and the CAE will hold a public hearing on Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Oct 2024

The credit rating agency Moody’s has upgraded Brazil’s sovereign credit rating from Ba2 to Ba1, maintaining a Positive outlook. Late yesterday, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad spoke to the press, acknowledging that achieving investment-grade status is not guaranteed, and nothing is “assured.” He...

Some good-looking fiscal data and the negative forint impact of the ugly Middle East situation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Oct 2024

Starting with the bad news, the forint has just been kicked out of its cosy EURHUF 390-395 range it held for quite a while, to quite unnervingly close to the 400 line, which the MNB obviously will not want to see being crossed, for the potential, and even likely, negative impact on domestic infla...

China’s "drip-drip" stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 01 Oct 2024

The PBOC announced a series of measures that some compared (with a modicum of hyperbole) to a bazooka. Bloomberg said it was a “massive adrenaline shot." One reporter said he was at the press conference “typing with nervous fingers.” The market took the announcements on board, with the CSI 300 In...

Lula attends the Mexican President’s inauguration, the Minister of Finance holds a meeting to discuss advertising for betting platforms, and the Senate Economic Affairs Committee discusses Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Oct 2024

President Lula continues his agenda in Mexico. Today, he will attend the inauguration of President Claudia Sheinbaum. Afterward, he will return to Brazil. The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, will hold a meeting this afternoon to discuss advertising for betting platforms in the country. Betw...

The new ways of services exports
INDIA · Report · 01 Oct 2024

The most important success of the Indian economy lies in IT and in a wide array of services exports enabled by IT. This field began with global firms contracting out to specialized IT services firms that had specialized abilities in operating in India. There is now an increasing shift to "Global ...

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