Politics: Mexico's growing political vulnerabilities

MEXICO - Report 17 Feb 2026 by Guillermo Valdés and Francisco González

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In recent years, various domestic policies implemented initially by the López Obrador administration and subsequently maintained by Claudia Sheinbaum's government have exacerbated Mexico's vulnerabilities, deepening the historical power asymmetry with the United States. This has facilitated acquiescence to external pressures in the face of aggressive policies toward Mexico, while maximizing their potential damage. These developments carry high-stakes implications regarding potential U.S. military intervention, while also placing the country at a distinct disadvantage in the upcoming USMCA review/renegotiation process scheduled for this year.
These policies can be categorized into the following areas:
- Drug trafficking and organized crime: Permissive strategies enabled cartel expansion, diversification of criminal activities (such as extortion and fuel theft), and sustained high levels of violence. Deepening ties between political leaders, officials, and criminal networks across states and municipalities have become more explicit, lending credence to external accusations of cartel control.
- Corruption: Mexico has registered historically low scores in global corruption perception indices, affecting claims within trade agreement frameworks.
- Weakening of the rule of law: The Judicial Reform reduced judicial autonomy; amendments to the amparo law limited legal defense mechanisms; and institutions such as the Attorney General's Office were effectively captured, politicizing justice administration and reducing certainty for investment and conflict resolution.
- Weakened foreign policy: The country isolated itself from key allies, prioritized ideological relationships, undermined professional diplomacy, and abandoned effective lobbying efforts in the United States.
- Migration policy: Beyond humanitarian rhetoric, the government conceded to U.S. demands—including military deployment at borders and caravan containment—while implementing insufficient programs for migrants and reducing their consular support.
- Democratic erosion: Institutional checks and balances have been further dismantled, including that of autonomous bodies, the separation of powers, and freedom of expression.

This Political Outlook analyzes these dynamics, which, by eroding institutions, strengthening problematic networks, and polarizing society, have left the country more immediately exposed to aggressive demands from the Trump administration, with reduced capacity for autonomous response.