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Permission for limited long-range missile strikes vs. global security breakdown
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Nov 2024

On Sunday morning, November 17, we received an alert that nearly 17 Russian strategic bombers were in the air preparing to launch dozens of cruise missiles. Such a big number of strategic bombers approaching launch sites usually means that hypersonic ballistic missile Kynzhal carriers Mig-31 will...

Lula will participate in the G20 meeting in Rio, he is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, and the market awaits the announcements of the fiscal measures
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Nov 2024

President Lula will participate this Monday and Tuesday in the G20 meeting in Rio de Janeiro. On Wednesday, November 20, he is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Brasília. In the market, all eyes are on the announcement of measures related to the fiscal adjustment package. Some...

Inflation remains elevated but likely to moderate in 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Nov 2024

1. Core inflation pushed higher in October due to higher airfares, a volatile item. 2. We view the fiscal package for 2025 as restrictive and likely to dampen household demand. 3. We expect inflation to moderate in 2025, supportive of monetary easing.

Time will tell
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Nov 2024

Trump's view of the world is the same as it was during the years of his first presidency. He also maintains his assertively unilateralist and transactional approach to foreign policy. Venezuela is not high on his international agenda. It enters it tangentially because of the deportation of mig...

Inflation pressures likely to subside in 2025, supporting rate cuts
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Nov 2024

Geopolitics: A ceasefire in North still appears likely, but may have to wait for Trump. The ground operation on both fronts is winding down, although missiles and drones continue to land in the extended North of Israel resulting in some damage and casualties. The imminent threat from a ballistic ...

Back in the twilight zone of Turkish politics
TURKEY · Report · 17 Nov 2024 · 1 response

Turkish politics entered the Twilight Zone once again, where the unthinkable quickly becomes the norm. The politics essays start with reports of President Erdogan planning to send the military to Syria once again, to deal the final blow to the reigning Kurdish military-political entity PYD/YPG. W...

Country in a wait-and-see stance, after withdrawal of fiscal reform bill
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 15 Nov 2024

After the government unexpectedly decided to withdraw the tax reform bill from Congress due to public opposition, Dominican society remains in a holding pattern, awaiting the government’s next steps to ease constraints on public finances. At the time of the withdrawal, the government announced th...

The reform of the pension system goes to the Legislative Assembly
PANAMA · Report · 15 Nov 2024 · 1 response

The reform of the CSS legislation, in particular the pension system, is the most recent initiative of the Mulino administration, after the Fiscal Responsibility Law enacted at the beginning of the month (which suffered minor changes in the legislative) and the Budget Law, which was changed substa...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar and Kuwait replace sovereign wealth chiefs, Neom replaces CEO, Dubai GDP steady in Q2, Qatar pauses Gaza mediation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Nov 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC revised down its oil demand forecasts for a fourth month, but they still look high. * The UK-GCC free trade agreement is reportedly nearing agreement after two years of talks. * Neom replaced its CEO amidst continued...

Inflation in October as expected, core accelerates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Nov 2024

Inflation in October as expected, core accelerates In October, the CPI rose by 0.5% m/m (according to consensus, we were leaning towards 0.6%), and remained stable at 3.5% y/y. Core inflation (The CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) accelerated to 3.3% y/y from 3.0% last month, mostly due to ...

Improved electricity supply sparks optimism for South Africa's economic outlook
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 15 Nov 2024

• South Africa’s growth: The South African economy’s real GDP was only 0.4% higher in H1-2024 than it was during the corresponding period in 2023. The country’s logistical issues remain a major hindrance to economic activity, while there was heightened uncertainty due to the May 29th general elec...

Central bank adopts a (de facto) crawling peg
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Nov 2024

We have revised up our inflation and exchange rate projections following the October breakdown of the exchange rate peg and the subsequent volatility and uncertainty in the foreign exchange market. We foresee that the central bank will have the necessary resources to sustain a gradual devaluat...

Webinar replay: GCC 2025 Outlook - Oil, debt, diversification and Trump
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Nov 2024

What are the GCC's views on the outlook for oil and OPEC+'s strategy? What are the trends in economic diversification, including Saudi Vision 2030? How could the regional conflict impact the Gulf states? Will relations with the US change under the next president? Visit our calendar page to watch ...

Webinar replay: China's economic dilemmas
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Nov 2024

How important is a consumption stimulus for China? Why is it so difficult for China to rebalance its economy towards consumption? Will the central government use its borrowing capacity and clean balance sheet to revive local-government spending? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Shall we brace for a currency crisis in Georgia?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Nov 2024

For a week we tried to steer away from Georgia and discussed (last week) the medium-term budgetary envelope in Uzbekistan, but events in Georgia give us no respite. The very large decline in FX reserves in Georgia last month has raised fears about the sustainability of FX buffers in an environmen...

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