Continued signs of recovery in manufacturing. Further rate cuts uncertain.

POLAND - Report 07 Nov 2025 by Jan Hagemejer

Incoming data show a rebound in the Polish industrial sector in 3Q2025, mainly driven by production of non-durable consumer goods, amid very weak external demand and trade within global value chains. However, capital goods output has been rising in recent months, suggesting a possible rebound in investment in 2H 2025. Construction demand output remains weak. New monthly data on services shows solid growth performance in the sector. Further disinflation leads to MPC interest rate cuts, likely the last in this series, as above-target inflation is expected to persist in 2026. Growth expectations remain stable.

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