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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Nov 7 -
Brazil Economics databank Nov 15
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Central America databank Oct 31
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Chile databank Oct 23
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 6
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 20
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 22
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Hungary databank Nov 21
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India databank Oct 30
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Mexico databank Nov 15
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Oct 15
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Philippines databank Nov 8
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Russia Economics databank Nov 13
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South Africa databank Nov 1
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Turkey databank Sep 18
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Ukraine databank Nov 12
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Venezuela databank Nov 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA IN 2025: HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE?...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Presidential election underway in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Mar 2024
On March 15 the election began. Polls close on March 17. The government has warned that protests during elections will be dealt with firmly. Anti-Putin groups armed by Ukraine have vowed to disrupt the election. They have been raiding across the border in March 2024. In the last presidential elec...
GULF WEEKLY: Aramco hiked dividends, Saudi Q4 GDP, UAE Q4 fiscal, Dubai PMI surges
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Mar 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose to $85 as the IEA’s latest forecast sees the market in deficit this year. * US criticism of Israel intensified as Ramadan began without a ceasefire and with growing famine concerns. * Hamas reduced its demands, t...
100 Days to Celebrate
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Mar 2024
President Daniel Noboa can celebrate his first 100 days in office with an 80% acceptance of his mandate—the highest level of popularity enjoyed by an Ecuadorian president. He moved fast on the right track to partially contain the dangerous insecurity and violence situation of last January and to...
Lula will hold the first ministerial meeting of 2024 on Monday, three bills submitted by the government should be put to a vote next week, and the STF is expected to analyze the case of the lifetime review of the INSS
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Mar 2024
President Lula will hold the first ministerial meeting of 2024 on Monday, March 18. The meeting was motivated by the drop in popularity recorded by opinion polls published a few days ago (Atlas, Genial/ Quaest, and IPEC). Next week, starting on March 19, four bills that have an urgent status in t...
Inflation continues to moderate, rate cut in April far from certain
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Mar 2024
Inflation continues to moderate, but the devil is in the details Inflation in February (0.4% m/m, 2.5% y/y down from 2.6% in January) was in line with expectations (or a bit at the high end, we were expecting 0.3%). Core inflation (headline excluding energy and fresh produce) moderated to 2.2% y/...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Diverging impulses in monetary policies across CCA
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Mar 2024
This week brought three rate decisions in the CCA, including Armenia, Georgia and Uzbekistan. They demonstrate that, while the broader easing momentum in the region continues, policymakers take a different view on how underlying macroeconomic conditions affect the path for policy rates. Indeed...
Moldova has met most conditions for EU membership
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024
On March 12 the EU Commission privately published a report saying that Moldova has met 11 of the 12 conditions for accession talks. The report was leaked to the media. The last remaining condition is to examine the background of judges properly and appoint a new Prosecutor General. There have bee...
February CPI and monetary policy implications
CHILE · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024
The second CPI under the newly-designed basket surprised on the upside again, confirming that the new basket inherited the old basket’s volatility. Some of the problem might be attributed to the volatility of the exchange rate and international prices, but this would only affect a limited part of...
NBU surprised with a minor prime rate cut by 0.5 ppt down to 14.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024
The NBU Board reduced the prime rate by 0.5 ppt to 14.5%, effective March 15. This decision came as a surprise to the market, especially following the January announcement that a minor prime rate cut might only be considered in the second half of 2024. The main justification for this unexpected m...
Haddad canceled his trip to Berlin because of the ministerial meeting on Monday, Tarcísio met with Haddad to discuss São Paulo’s federal debt, and the bill on electronic gambling was approved in the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Mar 2024
The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, was going to participate in the 10th Edition of the Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue next week. However, he decided to cancel his trip because there will be a ministerial team meeting on Monday, March 18. Yesterday, the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de...
The federal budget remains in decent shape in 2M24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024
The Ministry of Finance reported that in 2M24, the federal budget accumulated over R5 trln in revenues over R1.6 trln coming as oil-and-gas taxes and about R3.4 trln as the non-O&G ones). These amounts accounted for 14.3% of the annual plan in the case of total revenues and 14.1% and 14.5% in the...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024
The ruble recently fluctuated within a relatively wide range (R/$ 90-93), and these fluctuations were driven mainly by local factors rather than fundamental trends. According to the CBR statistics, sales of hard currency by top exporters decreased in February from $12.9 bln to $10.4 bln. The latt...
Kazakhstan macro: The art of financing budgetary expenditures
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 14 Mar 2024
The Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan started publishing economic data for February, and it looks as though economic growth remains relatively stable, albeit uneven across sectors and with some signs of deceleration. For instance, the Bureau reported that retail sales grew by 4.0% y-o-y...
Trade data points to recovery, core trade deficit continues to shrink
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Mar 2024
In February, there was a rapid increase in both industrial exports and imports (seasonally adjusted). Industrial exports increased by 9.5 percent (compared with January), mainly pharmaceuticals, electronic components, and defense exports. Exports rose 7.1% in Dec-February, following a similar dec...
Biden approves USD 300 million in military aid for Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Mar 2024
On March 12 the US President said this is needed to keep Ukraine in the fight. The money given is what the US military has saved on recent purchases. Therefore, the President has the authority to spend it. Usually Congress and not the president has the power of the purse. Most of the aid will be ...