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GULF WEEKLY: Saudi employment improves in Q1 but FDI remains weak, PIF and Qatar Airways report strong profits, Israel sends ceasefire negotiators back to Qatar
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Jul 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Current surpluses rose in Q1 in Qatar (15% of GDP) and KSA (3%) but eased in Bahrain (5%). * Inward FDI remained weak in KSA (1% of GDP), fell in Bahrain (to 2%), and turned negative in Qatar. * Qatar’s PMI surged in June...

PM Orbán is supposedly on his way to Moscow at this moment
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Jul 2024

PM Orbán met Ukrainian president Zelensky on Tuesday this week (July 2). This meeting was followed by an impressive amount of media noise, created by the affected governments, other politicians, political analysts and journalists all around the world. Most of the post-meeting comments appeared to...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Jul 2024

The effects of sanctions against the Russian FX infrastructure are still visible. The ruble remains abnormally strong (currently, it trades around R/$87-88 on the OTC market vs about R/$90 before the announcement of restrictions). It looks abnormal as the bank’s net liquidity position with the CB...

Turkmen pipeline to Iran
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jul 2024

On July 3 a contract was signed. The pipeline will enable 10 billion cubic meters (BCM) of natural gas to go to Iran each year. The gas will then be shipped to Iraq. The pipeline will be 125 km long. The price that will be paid by Iran has not been stated. Iran has the second largest reserves of ...

US donates USD 2.3 billion and rumors of NATO donations of USD 43 billion
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jul 2024

On July 3 the US Defense Secretary said that it would make the donation for security assistance. Ukraine is pleading with allies for more air defense. The latest aid package consists of air defense interceptors and anti-tank weapons. In June 2024 the Netherlands and an unnamed EU country gave Ukr...

Downside surprise on inflation
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2024

Consumer prices rose by a less than expected 1.6% in June (vs. 2.2%), with the 12-month rate declining visibly to 71.6% from 75.4% in May, helped, as anticipated, by base effects. Producer prices rose by 1.4% in the month (June 2023: 6.5%), with a much sharper decline in the 12-month PPI rate to ...

Lula said he will only appoint the next BC president when he is sure it will be quickly confirmed in the Senate, Campos Neto said Lula’s criticisms make it harder to control inflation, and the Tax Reform Working Group should submit its final report
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Jul 2024

President Lula gave another interview to the press and addressed topics of market interest. He said he will only appoint the next Central Bank president when he is certain it will be quickly confirmed by the Senate. The appointment process goes through the Economic Affairs Committee and then the ...

Chinese President on state visit to Kazakhstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2024

On July 2 Xi Jinping landed in Astana for a state visit. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is holding a summit in Astana starting on July 3. Xi also in Kazakhstan for that. China dominate the SCO. Russia is also a member of the SCO and Putin shall attend. Other members include India, Pa...

The legislative election and the Mulino inaugural speech: we give the benefit of the doubt with mixed feelings
PANAMA · In Brief · 02 Jul 2024 · 1 response

As anticipated, the ad-hoc coalition that favored the government of José Raúl Mulino won the Presidency of the Assembly with 44 votes by electing Dana Castañeda, a last-minute candidate, supported by Ricardo Martinelli directly and (his) Realizando Metas party as a group. This election confirms M...

Essential CIS Politics: July 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Jul 2024

* The war has led to minor gains for Russia as both sides bombard each other’s cities. * EU and US aid and loans bolster Ukraine. * Putin’s visit to North Korea and Vietnam shows Russia is not isolated. * Georgia’s foreign agent law has been passed.

Hungarian PM in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jul 2024

On July 2 Viktor Orban came to Kyiv and met Zelensky. Ukraine really needs to win Orban over. Of all the EU leaders he is the most skeptical about Western aid to Ukraine. This is Orban's first visit to Ukraine. He once blocked a EUR 50 billion aid package to Ukraine for months. He has also been o...

Lula may sanction the PLP on active debt this week, the Tax Reform Working Group’s final report is expected to be submitted tomorrow, and the Working Group on the Management Committee will meet with governors
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jul 2024

The Minister of the Secretariat for Institutional Relations said the President is expected to sanction this week the Complementary Law Project (PLP) regulating the securitization of active debts of the Federal Government, states, Federal District, and municipalities. The presentation of the final...

The importance of Minas Gerais and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2024

This will be a busy week in Brasília. In the House, the highlight is the presentation of the Tax Reform Working Group report. In the Senate, the debate continues around payroll tax relief and compensatory measures. In the Executive branch, the highlight is the launch of the 2024-2025 Harvest Plan...

Chinese projects in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Jul 2024

China is the major investor in Central Asia. Russia's role in the five former Soviet republics in the region has declined in real and absolute terms. This has been accelerated since the Ukraine War began. However, it has not disappeared and Russia will still have some role in the region for decad...

Up, Up and Away: Inflationary Impulses Ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jul 2024

Recent inflation dynamics are showing unfavorable signs that require attention. IPCA-15 underlying measures accelerated, and the pressure is expected to continue, reflecting an economic activity close to or above full employment. Simultaneously, the depreciation of the real causes an additional s...

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