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Bulgaria ends Russian oil imports
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Mar 2024

On March 1 Bulgaria made the announcement that it has finally brought itself fully into line with EU sanctions on Russia. The sanctions on Russian oil adopted in 2022 granted exemptions to Hungary and Bulgaria because they were heavily reliant on Russian oil. Bulgaria's exemption was due to be ph...

Netherlands signs security guarantee with Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Mar 2024

On March 1 the Dutch Prime Minister signed the agreement in Kharkiv, Ukraine. It is surprising that Mark Rutte traveled to the city, which is so close to the front line. The Netherlands pledged EUR 2 billion in military aid and more assistance until 2034. The Dutch reaffirmed that they want Ukrai...

GULF WEEKLY: PIF and Sharjah issue debt, UAE invests $35bn in Egypt, Qatar expands LNG, UAE delisted by FATF
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Mar 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ sources indicated that the current cuts could next week be extended into Q2. * A new Gaza ceasefire proposal is under review as the death toll crosses 30k, including 112 in a single incident this week. * Abu Dhabi i...

Russian macro: Early 2024 economic trends remain generally unchanged but hint at deceleration
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Mar 2024

Rosstat recently published the economic statistics for January, and the numbers confirmed that trends remain unchanged in general. For instance, the aggregate output in the basic sectors of the economy (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, trade) grew by 5.4% y-o-y last month, whi...

Essential CIS Politics: March 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Mar 2024

* Russia took Avdiivka: Russia’s greatest victory for almost a year. * Russian anti-corruption campaigner Alexey Navalny died suddenly in jail. * President of Azerbaijan re-elected in an election that was described by some as unfair. * Ukraine is to receive another EUR 50 billion from the ...

The local election result is a warning to the ruling JLP despite what appears to be a narrow win
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 01 Mar 2024

While the final count is not quite yet finished for Jamaica’s local government, on Monday, February 26, the ruling JLP (Jamaica Labour Party) appears to have eked a very narrow victory in terms of the number of municipalities it controlled, although a number were effectively tied. Confusingly, bo...

The IBGE published the GDP at 2.9% for 2023, city halls will hold a demonstration in Brasilia next week in support of the payroll tax exemption, and the Senate discusses changes to electoral legislation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Mar 2024

Today’s highlight is the publication of the GDP result, which was reported by the IBGE at 2.9% for 2023. The result strengthens Minister Fernando Haddad in the government and increases his prestige within the National Congress. The National Confederation of Municipalities is organizing a demonstr...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: What is Armenia's Pashinyan strategy to stay in power?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 Mar 2024

PM Pashinyan’s geopolitical equilibristics have left Armenia uncomfortably exposed in the ever-changing regional dynamics in the aftermath of the 3rd Karabakh War. The series of Russia-unfriendly steps undertaken by Pashinyan, including joining the International Criminal Court and suspending part...

Sharpening talk between the MNB and the government has a negative impact on the forint
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Mar 2024

The forint has weakened by 1-2% in EURHUF terms from its level held immediately before the Monetary Council's latest rate-setting meeting on February 27. This could be traced back to mainly to the acceleration of the monthly pace of rate-cutting, of course. But the MNB made an attempt to counter ...

The complex awakening from the Kirchnerist "Matrix"
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Feb 2024

Leaving aside Mauricio Macri’s four-year mandate, Argentina has been immersed over the last 23 years in an economic environment defined by taxing state interventions into basic individual economic decisions. Repeatedly, the “Kirchnerist” governments tackled macroeconomic imbalances by applying mi...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Feb 2024

A couple of days ago the CBR published a note with comments to its latest version of the medium-term macroeconomic forecast, and it now appears that the regulator expects that banking sectors' net liquidity will turn into deficit in 2H24 (while in recent months it was in surplus of a decent size ...

Growing at a comfortable rate
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Feb 2024

The Indonesian economy posted another encouraging growth result, with Q4 2023 GDP at 5.04%, above the 4.94% annual growth for Q3 2023. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy expanded by 0.45%, following the regular cycle. With the rate of growth for Q4 slightly higher than 5%, o...

Breakaway region of Moldova asks for ''Russian protection''
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Feb 2024

On February 29 Transnistria made the request, saying it faces and economic war by Moldova. Transnistria unofficially broke away from Moldova in 1991 at the breakup of the USSR. Some Transnistrians have even suggested becoming part of Russia. Some people there are ethnically Russian and everyone t...

Putin's State of the Nation address
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Feb 2024

On February 29 the president delivered his annual oration to Russian legislators. He sounded truculent and upbeat. The speech praised Russian soldiers' valor and assured people of victory in Ukraine. President Putin assured his hearers that Russia is beating sanctions. The speech focused on socia...

Damn the torpedoes...
TURKEY · Report · 29 Feb 2024

The Turkish economy grew by 4%, y/y, and 1%, q/q, in the final quarter of last year, with the latter, in particular, sharply stronger than we and, as far as we can tell, the consensus had expected. In 2023 as a whole, GDP growth was 4.5%, down from 5.5% in 2022 (Graphs 1-2).

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