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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The BOI prefers to be cautious, but signals further loosening ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Feb 2024

The Bank of Israel decided to err on the side of caution today and kept rates stable at 4.5%. Some of the same phrases in the announcement were similar to those in the previous rate decision (when rates were cut by 0.25%): “There is a great amount of uncertainty with regard to the expected severi...

Parliament ratified Sweden's NATO accession today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Feb 2024

The National Assembly approved Swedish NATO membership with 188 yes and 6 no votes earlier today. As Hungary was the last member state to vote on the issue, Sweden is officially a member of NATO from now on. Previously, Swedish prime minister Ulf Kristersson paid a visit to Budapest three days ag...

Kazakhstan macro: GDP growth beat expectations last year but is likely to decelerate in 2024
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 26 Feb 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan published its preliminary GDP numbers on the production side for 2023. The end-use statistics will be published at a later date. It could well be the case that at some point the Bureau may somehow modify the quarterly GDP data as the annual figure i...

The risk of non-renewal increases
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 26 Feb 2024 · 1 response

With the political climate heating up, the risk that General License 44 (GL 44) may not be renewed next April 18 is heightening. It’s premature to try to guess how the ongoing turmoil will play out. Things can change between now and April 18; license renewal can still be achieved. A scenario ...

Bolsonaro’s demonstration was impressive, Lira should meet with party leaders this week to discuss the presidencies of the House committees, and the 2023 GDP result will be published this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Feb 2024

Former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) showed that he still has significant political capital. Whomever he decides to support in the upcoming elections is likely to receive a high number of votes. While the demonstration is unlikely to change his legal status, he remains Lula's main antagonist. Thi...

CCA Highlights: Armenia grows by 8.7% in 2023, Azerbaijan's growth finally accelerates in Jan, Georgia suffers large drop in Jan exports, Uzbekistan modernizes monetary transmission mechanism
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 26 Feb 2024 · 1 response

We comment on the key recent macro events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: 2023 posts 8.7 percent GDP growth Armenia: 2023 foreign trade deficit widens Armenia: REER inches down in Dec, but still runs in overvaluation mode Armenia: CB publishes minutes from Jan 30th rates meeting ...

A rate cut today appears likely
ISRAEL · Report · 26 Feb 2024

1. We expect a rate cut today on the back of low inflation, a strong shekel and only a partial recovery in activity. 2. Economic indicators reflect an improvement in growth, while the lack of Palestinian workers and the large number of evacuees are slowing growth. 3. The supply/demand dynam...

Rate cut today (Monday) appears likely
ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 Feb 2024

A rate cut today is our base forecast: After some hesitation last week, we expect a cut today. Consensus is divided according to Bloomberg (11 expect a rate cut, 6 expect hold). A rate cut is supported by low and decelerating inflation, a strong shekel and only a partial recovery in economic grow...

More on local elections and reserves
TURKEY · Report · 25 Feb 2024

With 5 weeks left to the polling day, the municipal election race is heating up, already witnessing trend reversals. Poll results show CHP incumbents ahead in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. President Erdogan has a decisive propaganda advantage on opposition rivals, but he has two significant weaknes...

Armenia suspends membership in Russian led military alliance
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Feb 2024

On February 23 Prime Minister Pashinyan said that his country had taken the decision regarding the 6-member Collective Security Treaty Organization. The 6 CSTO members are all former Soviet republics. The CSTO is Russia's equivalent of NATO. Armenia refused to send a delegate to the CSTO summit i...

US, EU and UK sanction Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Feb 2024

On February 23 Biden said the package is because of the death of Navalny and the war in Ukraine. Biden again urged the US Congress to pass the USD 60 billion aid package for Ukraine. He noted that the Republican Congressmen who are blocking the aid package are indirectly assisting Russia. Biden s...

GULF WEEKLY: PIF to hike capital deployment, Alat’s first deals, Turkey-ADQ sukuk on hold, Qatar’s Gaza mediation resumes
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Feb 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states addressed the ICJ hearing on Israel’s occupation (requested by the UNGA in 2022). * Hostage release talks mediated by Qatar/US/Egypt are resuming in Paris today. * Inflation in January was higher in Kuwait (3....

Lula met with party leaders of the House to improve their relationship, Lira should meet with party leaders next week to discuss the presidencies of the House committees, and the 2023 GDP result will be published next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Feb 2024

Yesterday, President Lula met with the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and representatives of 12 parties. The objective of the meeting was to improve dialogue between the Executive and Legislative branches. Next week, a meeting is scheduled between Arthur Lira (PP-AL) and party leade...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Energy independence is a key limitation to Uzbekistan's ambitious growth objectives
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 23 Feb 2024 · 1 response

Unfortunately, this week brought painful memories from last winter, when severe cold spells caused electricity blackouts and temporary closures of key enterprises. Low temperatures led to a drop in gas pressure in Uzbekistan’s main gas pipelines, which, in turn, brought about a number of key acci...

The National Bank of Kazakhstan cuts the base rate by 50 bps
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Feb 2024

The NBK cut the base rate to 14.75%, i.e., by 50 bps, quoting falling inflation expectations as a key factor that triggered this decision. The regulator also referred to falling global food prices. Note that in January, inflation fell to 9.5% y-o-y while m-o-m inflation remained elevated (0.8% m-...

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