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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Rates on hold for now, but possible tightening in the coming year
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Oct 2024

Rates on hold despite an increase in the inflation environment There were no real surprises in the interest rate decision. The Bank of Israel noted that there was an acceleration in inflation broadly, including tradable components (mainly goods) and non-tradable components (services), mainly due ...

A complex landscape
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 09 Oct 2024 · 1 response

The 2024-2025 outlook is strongly influenced by the July 28, 2024 events. They raised the risk of diplomatic and economic isolation, imposed a brake on growth and disinflation, and increased the likelihood of an exchange rate crisis that might derail stabilization policy. Avoiding this course req...

The Senate confirmed Galípolo’s appointment to the presidency of the Central Bank, Senator Braga was appointed as the rapporteur for the Tax Reform regulation bill, and X began to come back online for users in Brazil
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Oct 2024

As expected, and with no surprises, the Senate confirmed the appointment of economist Gabriel Galípolo as president of the Central Bank from 2025 to 2028. He is expected to take office on January 1. Yesterday, Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM) was officially appointed as the rapporteur for the bill ...

Expect a temporarily low headline inflation figure tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Oct 2024

The September CPI-inflation data is due from KSH early morning tomorrow. There seems to be broad consensus that a significantly lower number is likely to show up for the headline rate compared to all recent data, indeed the lowest seen at any time since February 2021. There is also broad consensu...

Preparing for resistance through 2025 and beyond
UKRAINE · Report · 08 Oct 2024

Many publications about a potential peace deal have appeared in Western media, sometimes with claims that Ukraine might accept territorial concessions. It's hard to determine who is signaling what with these articles, but from Kyiv, much of this seems out of touch — similar to in 2022, when Weste...

Campaigning for the run-off of the municipal elections has begun, one of the priorities in the House is the bill on the Management Committee, and Galípolo’s confirmation hearing will be held in the Senate today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Oct 2024

Electoral campaigning for the run-off of the municipal elections was authorized starting at 5 PM yesterday. Voters in 52 municipalities, including 15 state capitals, will return to the polls on October 27 to elect candidates for mayor. The President of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), called a mee...

Economics: Business confidence in the Mexican economy weakens in recent months
MEXICO · Report · 08 Oct 2024

Business confidence has been weakening in recent months. According to Inegi’s Monthly Survey of Business Opinion, as of September 2024 the overall business confidence indicator stood at 50.9 points (the maximum is 100), a level 5.5 points lower than in the same month of the previous year and whic...

Finally, the Government presented its fiscal reform proposal.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 08 Oct 2024

Arguing that the Dominican Republic cannot depend indefinitely on debt to finance public services, and that there is a need for greater spending to fund the provision of public services, the Minister of Finance, Jochi Vicente, presented the fiscal reform proposal yesterday. According to the autho...

South Africa’s business environment and corporate dividends in 2024
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Oct 2024

While the overall performance of the South African economy in 2024 is expected to improve somewhat from the previous year, the lackluster economic activity from 2023 (in the post-Covid-19 era) has had a detrimental impact on business activity. Despite the marked improvement in electricity supply ...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Oct 2024

OVERVIEW THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT (?) Moody's decision to raise Brazil's credit rating from Ba2 to Ba1, with a positive outlook, bringing the investment grade carrot closer, was surprising and even awkward. The awkwardness stems from the risks associated with betting on a radical shift in fi...

The paradox in Lula's popularity, the results of the first-round municipal elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Oct 2024

Following the first round of municipal elections, congressional activity is expected to increase. The Lower House may conclude the vote on the bill establishing the Management Committee for Tax Reform. Meanwhile, the Senate will analyze Gabriel Galípolo’s appointment to the presidency of the Cent...

On new data releases: weak industry, strengthening consumption, and moderate surpluses on the BOP
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2024

1. Industrial output fell 0.5% mom, 3.5% yoy in August, he latter following -6.4% yoy in July. January-August was -3.8% yoy. So far this year, the usual mantra has been that most of the obvious weakness is caused by cars and batteries. But this time around, the foregoing preliminary numbers were ...

Politics: The Sheinbaum Presidency—first positions and implications
MEXICO · Report · 07 Oct 2024

There were no big surprises in Claudia Sheinbaum’s first day in office and her two inauguration day speeches. Everything points to a continuation of outgoing President Andres Manuel López Obrador’s social programs (a central axis of his and Morena’s so-called "Fourth Transformation"), ideology, a...

Center-right parties win big in the first round of the municipal elections, the Senate will hold Galípolo’s confirmation hearing tomorrow, and the STF will hear Google’s case on Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Oct 2024

The results of the municipal elections confirm the predominance of center-right parties, reinforcing their role as an important indicator for the 2026 general elections. The data shows that the "Centrão" bloc has consolidated its dominance. Tomorrow (October 8), the Senate’s Economic Affairs Com...

Will the BoI sell FX in the market?
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Oct 2024

1. We have seen an elevated geopolitical risk vis-à-vis Iran in recent days. 2. This is likely to support a weaker shekel (depending on the level of escalation), in which case we think the BoI is likely to sell FX in the market. 3. Recent private consumption indicators for August point to d...

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