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Russian Navy exercises off Cuba as Serbia hails friendship with Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jun 2024

On June 13 three warships and a nuclear-powered submarine arrived in Cuba. They will conduct exercises until June 18. Two of the vessels can carry nuclear missiles. One of the ships is carrying Tsirkon missiles. Cuba says none of the Russian ships in its territorial waters are carrying nuclear ar...

Pacheco invalidated sections of the PIS/Cofins MP, the CCJ may vote on the bill that allows casinos to operate in the country, and the STF resumes adjudication of the FGTS case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jun 2024

The President of Congress, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), announced yesterday the invalidation of sections of Provisional Measure (MP) 1227/24, which addresses the PIS/Cofins taxes. The invalidated sections are at the core of the provisional measure. Today, the Senate Constitution and Justice Committe...

Slide Presentation: South Africa’s 2024 Post-Elections Review - Expectations vs Outcome
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 12 Jun 2024

Understand the results of South Africa's elections and their key policy implications with the slide presentation from our webinar, "South Africa’s 2024 Post-Elections Review - Expectations vs Outcome".

Azerbaijan accused of destabilizing French territory
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jun 2024

Baku is said to be behind an orchestrated social media campaign against the French State in the French overseas territory of New Caledonia. Some people connected to the New Azerbaijan Party (YAP) are said to be behind the campaign. There are accounts on X that have been suspended on suspicion of ...

The Russian budget remains in decent shape
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Jun 2024

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 5M24, total revenues of the federal budget reached R14.3 trln, i.e., a 45.5% y-o-y increase. Oil and gas (O&G) revenues grew by 73.5%, while non-O&G revenues climbed by 34.1%. The former revenue constituency of the budget is quite volatile, and it will lik...

The MP on PIS and Cofins continues to cause tension in Congress, the House may vote on the Mover bill, the Tax Reform Working Group will hold two hearings today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jun 2024

As expected, the provisional measure (MP) on PIS and Cofins taxes published by the government last week continues to resonate in Congress and among impacted sectors. The PP, which is the president of the House Arthur Lira’s (PP-AL) party, filed a lawsuit in the Supreme Federal Court (STF) against...

Fitch retains Philippines’ investment grade and stable outlook
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Jun 2024

After reporting that “Philippine bank asset quality and earnings will be supported by a robust economy over the next two years” last April 2024, Fitch Ratings affirmed the Philippines’ investment grade rating of BBB, a notch above the minimum investment grade. The country’s stable outlook was als...

Economics: Wage growth remains strong even as hiring slows along with economic activity so far in 2024
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jun 2024

Labor indicators for the first four months of the year point to employment remaining at high levels, with growth concentrated in formal employment. Yet we also continue to witness a deceleration from 2023 growth rates, in keeping with the behavior of the economy. Despite this slowing, which can p...

The government's new battle and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jun 2024

Senator Jaques Wagner (PT-BA), the rapporteur for payroll tax relief, may submit his report. He may incorporate MP No. 1.227/24 on PIS/Cofins into his text. Pressure from legislators and industry against the measure continues. The House is expected to vote on the Mover bill and the taxation of im...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jun 2024

OVERVIEW SPENDING VOLUME DOES NOT SUBSTITUTE FOR EFFICIENCY IN ITS USE A project for the country, not a lavish distribution of public money, is what the nation has needed since January 2023. If we were facing a severe recession, with high unemployment and weak demand, some fiscal stimulus wou...

The May CPI data is out: this is when rising inflation is actually good news
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2024

The headline rate of CPI-inflation was reported at -0.1% mom, 4% yoy, the latter rising in the second consecutive month from March's cyclical low of 3.6% yoy and April's slightly higher 3.7% yoy. This increase was not at all unexpected, especially in view of the often recalled unfriendly base eff...

Politics: Landslide Sheinbaum and Morena victory, as a greatly weakened opposition strives to avoid an incumbent supermajority in Congress
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jun 2024

Claudia Sheinbaum's victory in this month’s presidential election had been expected, although few anticipated the almost 60% share of the vote she attained. The Morena-led coalition’s presidential vote grew by almost seven million while the opposition appears to have lost 2.7 million votes. Al...

The rapporteur of the payroll tax relief bill will submit his report this week, the House resumes analysis of the Mover bill, and the Senate CCJ may vote on the bill that authorizes gambling in the country
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jun 2024

The submission of Senator Jaques Wagner's (PT-BA) report on the bill concerning payroll tax relief for companies and municipalities is expected this week. The text will include the agreement reached between companies and the government. This week, the House resumes analysis of Bill No. 914/24, wh...

Business sector optimism improves modestly
ISRAEL · Report · 10 Jun 2024

1. The fiscal deficit continues to drift higher as expenditure growth remains rapid. 2. Business sector sentiment improved modestly, with expectations for inflationary pressure. 3. We expect inflation in May to reach 0.7% m/m, at the high end of consensus.

First reaction to yesterday's election: no great success for Fidesz
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2024

To sum it up, Fidesz did relatively well in most respects, winning the European election in the Hungarian vote and keeping most of their positions at the local government elections, compared to the previous local elections in 2019, and even winning new positions here and there. But they have lost...

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