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Webinar Replay - Economic reform in Turkey and Argentina: comparative prospects
TURKEY · Report · 09 Feb 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Murat Ucer and Domingo Cavallo discussing economic policy in Argentina and Turkey as the countries try to shake off their reputations for economic mismanagement. Governments in both countries have committed themselves to economi...

CCA Highlights: Aliyev wins presidential elections in Azerbaijan; Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan cut rates; Tajikistan posts robust CA surplus in 3Q23
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 09 Feb 2024

We comment on key data and events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Central Bank cuts policy rate by 50bpts to 8.75 percent Armenia: Remittances fall significantly in 2023 but remain above longer-term averages Armenia: Western incentives for PM to bolster his image Armenia: Armenia...

President Ramaphosa delivered his last State of the Nation Statement - more promises in a year of critical national elections
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 09 Feb 2024

The State of the National Address (SONA) has become an institution even since the establishment of the democratic order in South Africa. It is an annual occasion for the Members of the Parliament (MPs) to dress up and turn the opening session of the parliament into a mini-national fashion show—di...

New top general appointed in Ukrainian Army
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024

On February 8 President Zelensky promoted Oleksandr Syrsky to be the armed forces chief. Zelensky expressed gratitude to the previous armed forces chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi. Zelensky acknowledged in November 2023 rumors of tension between himself and Zaluzhnyi but said the rumors were false. Zelen...

Zelenskiy dismissed Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi
UKRAINE · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024

The tension between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi has been simmering for quite some time and became notably public after the problematic counteroffensive in the summer of 2023. Zelenskiy attempted to justify his dissatisfaction with Zaluzhnyi, citing modes...

Good presentation, let’s hope for the best
TURKEY · Report · 08 Feb 2024

The CBRT released the first Inflation Report of the year under the new Governor. The Bank kept its yearend inflation forecasts for both 2024 and 2025 at 36% (midpoint of 30%-42%), and at 14% (midpoint of 7%-21%), respectively, unchanged from the October report, as we surmised earlier. The CBRT fo...

Lula has been traveling the country ahead of the municipal elections, the STF resumes adjudication of a case on dismissals in the public sector, and the strike in the Federal Revenue Service should end today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Feb 2024

President Lula has focused his attention on the three largest electoral colleges recently. Last week, for example, Lula went to São Paulo to participate in an event alongside Tarcísio de Freitas. Yesterday, he went to Rio de Janeiro and praised Eduardo Paes (PSD). And today, he will participate i...

New Prime Minister in Kazakhstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024

On February 6 Olzhas Bektenov was appointed. Parliament approved Bektenov: 69 voted for him and 7 abstained. None voted against. He vowed that his premiership will be about action not words. He said he will avoid unnecessary meetings and cut bureaucracy. Bektenov said his main task was to carry o...

Surprisingly strong tax revenues in January point to growth recovery
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024

January’s fiscal account reflects a surplus of 2.5bn ILS, both due to seasonal factors (low government spending by ministries in the beginning of the year) and to strong revenues of 43.7bn, declining only by 1.5% y/y. Spending for the war reached 6.5bn. The fiscal deficit in the last 12 months in...

Pro-peace candidate not allowed to run for Russian presidency
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024

On February 8 the Central Election Commission made the announcement because there were many mistakes in the signatures of people who nominated him. Boris Nadezhdin is the candidate and he gathered 105,000 signatures, but the CEC invalidated 15% of them. Many of the signatures came from Russians a...

Preview for tomorrow's data release: year-on-year CPI-inflation is expected to have fallen sharply further in January
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024

Local analysts asked in Portfolio.hu's survey have a median expectation of 4.2% yoy, following 5.5% yoy in December. In the Q4 inflation report, out in late December, the MNB predicted 4.8% yoy, but on January 30, right after the monthly rate-setting meeting, Mr. Virág said that it might have fal...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024 · 1 response

Jan 25 Oil transit: Belarus has raised tariffs for oil transit from Kazakhstan to Europe by 38%, from Russia - by 10.2% National Railways: Freight transportation by rail between Kazakhstan and China increased by 22% in 2023 to 28 mln tons Government: Kazakhstan plans to double production of agric...

Azerbaijan re-elects president
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Feb 2024

On February 7 Azerbaijan's exit polls said that Ilham Aliyev is winning 94% of the vote. The polls have not yet closed. This comes as no surprise. He has ruled since his late father handed the role over to him in 2003. Every election Aliyev has won has failed to meet international standards of in...

Federal budget revenue collection looks decent in January 2024 as the economy expands - GDP grew by 3.6% in 2023
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Feb 2024

The Ministry of Finance reported that oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues reached R675 bn in January. It was 58.7% higher than a year ago. The non-O&G revenues accounted for R1.721 trln (up by 84.8% y-o-y). As a result, total revenues grew by 76.6% y-o-y. Even though January 2023 is not a good base for co...

The current account deficit widened in 4Q23 as the tenge got excessively strong
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Feb 2024

The National Bank of Kazakhstan published its first estimate of the 2023 balance of payments, and it became clear that in 4Q23, the current account deficit widened to $3.3 bn from $1.6 bn in 3Q23. In 2Q23, the deficit was even wider ($3.4 bn). However, in 1Q23, it was again moderate ($1.6 bn). Ap...

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